College Football Betting Odds & Picks for Week 10: Collin Wilson’s Top 4 Picks on Saturday (Nov. 7)
Silas Walker/Getty Images. Pictured: Jarrett Guarantano (2).
- Collin Wilson has his bets ready to go for Saturday: Michigan-Indiana, Florida-Georgia, Tennessee-Arkansas, and Notre Dame-Clemson.
- Check out his full betting preview for each of the above games, plus updated odds and his picks for the Week 10 college football slate below.
Earlier this week, MACtion made its long-awaited return, and it made the college football season feel normal again. But then, COVID-19 once again reared its head to remind us that scheduling turmoil is something we must continue to live with throughout the season.
The Pac-12 joins the MAC among the conferences returning in Week 10 — but even before a single Pac-12 team steps onto the field, the conference has already faced a cancellation. Washington-California has been postponed indefinitely due to a Huskies player testing positive for COVID-19.
But, here’s the bright side: Week 10 features several matchups with major conference and national championship futures implications, most notably: Florida vs. Georgia and Clemson vs. Notre Dame. Both games make it onto my betting card this week. Check out the Action Network Power Ratings for all Week 10 games and follow me on the Action App for the latest updates.
My College Football Betting Card for Week 10
Here’s a rundown of my favorite betting spots on Saturday’s slate of games:
- 12:00 p.m. ET | #23 Michigan at #13 Indiana
- 3:30 p.m. ET | #8 Florida vs. #5 Georgia
- 7:30 p.m. ET |Tennessee at Arkansas
- 7:30 p.m. ET | #1 Clemson at #4 Notre Dame
All listed odds have been updated as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings. Specific bet recommendations at the end of each matchup breakdown come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing.
Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
Michigan at Indiana
|Michigan Odds||-3.5 [BET NOW]|
|Indiana Odds||+3.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-162 / +130 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||54.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||12 p.m. ET|
There are plenty of takeaways from the Wolverines’ first two games. Two of the leading stories deal with quarterback Joe Milton’s accuracy and the execution of the defensive backfield.
Starting on the defensive side of the ball, the Michigan State passing attack completed nine passes for 15-plus yards. The Spartans were explosive but not successful, posting just a 30% Success Rate on passing downs. Michigan State tore through the Michigan secondary and won as a three-touchdown underdog despite falling below national averages in two-plus first down drives and overall Success Rate.
Cornerback Gemon Green has been targeted 18 times already this season and has posted an opponent receiving rate of 28%, but the other two cornerbacks have been torched. Vincent Gray is allowing opposing offenses a 71% reception rate at 38.6 yards per catch. If corner play cannot rebound opposite of Green, every quarterback in the Big Ten will target the Wolverines through the air.
It has been a tale of two different quarterbacks when Milton is under center. The junior has posted a 67% completion rate without pressure, but when defenses bring the heat, Milton has posted a 59.7 quarterback rating. The biggest difference is in the adjusted completion percentage, better known as the number of aimed passes thrown on target. Milton’s passing attempts dip to 24% in adjusted completion percentage when the defense sends pressure.
The Hoosiers didn’t have a hangover after opening their season with a win over Penn State. A remaining schedule that includes road trips to Ohio State and Wisconsin loom, but optimism has never been higher in Bloomington. Indiana holds a ranking of ninth in Finishing Drives on both sides of the ball, as both the offense and defense have performed best in scoring opportunities. Indiana best numbers coming in passing attempts, where the Hoosiers posted a 52% Success Rate and 8.7 yards per play against Rutgers.
The defense has been middling in plenty of categories, including Pro Football Focus’ grades in coverage and tackling. Penn State and Rutgers pushed the Hoosiers’ rank in Defensive Rushing Success Rate to 56th, but Indiana does its best work when the field gets shorter. In just eight combined red-zone attempts from Penn State and Rutgers, only half have resulted in a score.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The biggest handicap with the Michigan offense is the ability to keep a clean pocket for Milton. Michigan has posted a Sack Rate of eighth for an offense that passes on 54% of downs.
Indiana is graded 76th in pass rush by PFF, accumulating just six hurries through two games. The Wolverines’ rush explosiveness will get Milton into scoring opportunities, but Michigan must continue a high touchdown ratio. Only one of the nine Michigan scores in the red zone have been from a field goal.
As Michigan should get into scoring position, the question remains whether or not Indiana can attack cornerbacks not named Gemon Green. Michael Penix Jr’s most successful passing has come in the 10- to 20-yard range working from the middle out to the sideline, per PFF.
With both teams ranking in the top 36 in pace, there may be plenty of quick scoring opportunities in this game. Our Pace Report calls for the total to land close to the number on the market. Both quarterbacks should have success — Penix Jr. against a struggling secondary and Milton without pressure. Look for multiple scoring opportunities to turn into points.
Florida vs. Georgia
|Florida Odds||+3 [BET NOW]|
|Georgia Odds||-3 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||+117 / -141 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||54.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||3:30 p.m. ET|
Fistfights and Darth Vader post-game pressers — all in a week of Florida football returning from a three-week break.
The Missouri game was business as usual for the Gators with the passing attack gaining 10 plays of 15 yards or more while averaging 9.6 yards per play. Kyle Trask found Kyle Pitts on eight targets for an average of 10 yards per target. Trask also found three other targets for his four touchdowns, as Kadarius Toney went for two scores out of the backfield.
While the Florida offense continues to be one of the best in the country, the defense is still struggling in multiple areas. Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham has leaks in the boat from ranks of 92nd in opponent third-down conversions, 101st in Opponent Rushing Success Rate and 65th and 55th in Sack Rate. Through four games, opposing offenses have shredded Florida after passing the line of scrimmage. Out of 103 active teams in FBS, the Gators rank 97th in tackling just edging out UMass in Pro Football Focus grading.
The Bulldogs kept the offense at a low gear in last week’s grudge match against Kentucky. Georgia ran just 57 plays and passed only 14 times. Stetson Bennett was limited in attempts after an interception followed an explosive pass on the Bulldogs’ third drive. Georgia did gain five yards per carry on 43 rushing attempts, giving plenty of reps to Zamir White in preparation for a pliable Florida front seven.
The biggest news for the defense comes off the field, as Richard LeCounte was injured in a motorcycle crash. Georgia is a top-25 team in coverage, but the loss of LeCounte will be felt, as the senior ranked 17th in the nation in passes defended. The most noticeable element from the Kentucky offensive attack was the consistency in which the pile moved. The advanced numbers back that up, as Georgia ranks 92nd in Power Success and 97th in Stuff Rate.
Betting Analysis & Pick
There is one outstanding stat that cannot be overlooked when comparing Georgia and Florida: tackling.
The Gators have seven different defenders with at least four missed tackles. In comparison, the Bulldogs will not field a single defender with more than three. Georgia will likely find plenty of success rushing against the Gators, and if the missed tackles are not resolved, White may take a few attempts for six points.
The loss of LeCounte will put all eyes on the Georgia secondary in its attempt to stop one of the best passing attacks in the nation. Three cornerbacks are ranked highly in coverage, but safeties Major Burns and Christopher Smith must step up. The middle of the field has been feasting territory for Trask, as he’s completed 16-of-23 passes with five touchdowns and no interceptions in pass plays longer than 10 yards between the hashes.
Florida ranks third in Offensive Finishing Drives, but the Georgia defense will be its stiffest test in the red zone. Expect both teams to have multiple opportunities in scoring position, but Georgia’s execution in tackling and special teams to get the Bulldogs to the window.
Tennessee at Arkansas
|Tennessee Odds||-1 [BET NOW]|
|Arkansas Odds||+1 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-115 / -106 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||52.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
The Volunteers entered halftime up 21-17 against Georgia and was feeling good about the state of the program. But there has been nothing positive for Tennessee over the past 10 quarters with three losses and eight turnovers. Now, rumors persist of a demotion of offensive coordinator Jim Chaney for former national champion quarterback Tee Martin. Tennessee is outside the top 75 in Offensive Success Rate and Finishing Drives.
The defensive side of the ball had produced equally disappointing numbers. Jeremy Pruitt, a former defensive coordinator for Alabama, has overseen a fall to 91st in Opponent Passing Success Rate. Tackling continues to be an issue as the Volunteers rank 73rd in Pro Football Focus grading. If there’s a positive, the defensive trench is 32nd in Line Yards after games against Georgia and Alabama. Kivon Bennett leads the team in quarterback hurries and is second in defensive stops.
How much has Arkansas become the darling of the gambling community? Of any FBS team to play three games, the Razorbacks are the only squad to cover in every single game at 5-0 against the number.
Sam Pittman has become a household name and is widely respected in the coaching community after years of serving as an offensive line coach and top recruiter at Georgia and Arkansas.
Arkansas continues to cover games thanks to healthy numbers in pass defense. The Razorbacks are second in limiting opponent pass explosiveness. Defensive coordinator Barry Odom did a masterful job in scheming against the air raid of Mississippi State and the spread tempo of Ole Miss. Arkansas ranks in the top 25 in Defensive Finishing Drives while PFF grades the Hogs as 13th in coverage.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Will either team be able to convert a third down?
Arkansas’ rank of 96th and Tennessee’s rank of 107th could be a clue that this game could be a punt fest. There are concerns in the advanced numbers when supporting Arkansas on both offense and defense.
Arkansas grades dead last by PFF in tackling despite a high rank in coverage. There’s plenty of hustle on the defense, but ranks 93rd in Line Yards and 85th in Sack Rate indicate there is a path for Tennessee to find offensive success.
The Razorbacks are not filling the box score on the offensive side of the ball this season, as they rank 100th in rush explosiveness. Rushing attempts from Trelon Smith and Rakeem Boyd average less than 2.5 yards after contact. The one positive is that wide receiver Treylon Burks averages 6.8 yards after contact and 14.3 YACs per catch.
The Action Network Pace Report calls for a total of 49 despite both teams ranking top-30 in seconds per play.
As noted, these teams have been subpar in third downs and lack any explosive element in the pass game. Each team ranks outside the top 70 in Finishing Drives, as scoring opportunities may not produce enough points.
Arkansas may continue its run of covers, but it should come in a low-scoring game filled with punts.
Clemson at Notre Dame
|Clemson Odds||-5 [BET NOW]|
|Notre Dame Odds||+5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-278 / +170 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||49.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
Trevor Lawrence missed the Boston College game with a positive COVID-19 test, thrusting DJ Uiagalelei into the starting quarterback role. While the betting market adjusted Clemson six points of power rating, Uiagalelei showed plenty of positives as a first-time starter. Clemson went 41% in passing downs and 50% in passing plays — both well above the national average. Seven passes exceeded 15 yards as Clemson put up a monster 73% in possessions with two-plus first downs.
The Tigers defense needed a halftime wake-up call to secure the victory over the Eagles. After throwing multiple explosive passes in touchdown drives, Phil Jurkovec and the Boston College offense were shut out in the second half. Now, the Tigers must deal with a slew of injuries on the defensive side of the ball.
Clemson officially down two starters on defense who had been potential returnees this weekend. Middle linebacker James Skalski already out. https://t.co/NXSjh47hgR
— Pete Sampson (@PeteSampson_) November 4, 2020
James Skalski ranks fourth on the team in tackles, but his real worth came in pass defense as the second-highest graded coverage player, per Pro Football Focus.
The highest-graded coverage player for Clemson was linebacker Mike Jones, who will also miss the game against the Fighting Irish. The two starters had combined for just one sack and six hurries but allowed only 31 YACs on 15 opponent targets. All-ACC defensive end Xavier Thomas will sit the first half for a targeting penalty against Boston College.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Brian Kelly may be fielding the best defensive unit during his tenure in South Bend.
Defensive coordinator Clark Lea has been fantastic since the departure of Mike Elko to Texas A&M. Notre Dame is in the top 10 in plenty of defensive categories that matter, including Success Rate, Havoc, Finishing Drives and coverage. Experience may be an additional factor in this game, as this Irish group of defenders lost to Clemson in the Playoff semifinals in 2019 and led the cover against Georgia in 2019.
The offense has been under first-year offensive coordinator Tommy Rees, who has elected to utilize a rush-heavy offense. A near 68% run rate through the season has essentially kept quarterback Ian Book off tape for opponents to study. The question remains whether or not Notre Dame has done this by design leading up to Clemson, or if there is no faith in a receiving corps that lost Chase Claypool and needed answers for Book.
In limited passing attempts, the Irish ranks 33rd in Passing Success Rate, led by tight end Michael Mayer’s seven avoided tackles after the catch and wide receiver Javon McKinley’s 18.9 yards per reception.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The national narrative is that Notre Dame has been abysmal against top-10 competition. The Brian Kelly era may lack straight-up victories over the top teams in the nation, but backing the Irish has been profitable. Per Bet Labs, Notre Dame is 8-3 against the spread against top-10 teams since 2010 when listed as an underdog.
With Clemson sporting so many losses on the defense, it’s expected that Notre Dame can find some offensive success from the start. The most explosive passing attempts have come from the backfield, as Jafar Armstrong has averaged 16.7 YACs on three receptions. If Rees has held back in the passing game, the Tigers may be ripe in giving up explosive plays through the air.
The coverage ranks from PFF have Notre Dame and Clemson as top-eight programs in the country in defending the pass. This could force Uiagalelei and Ian Book to leave the pocket more than usual or lean on passes to weapons out of the backfield.
Each team ranks top-15 in special teams, which will lead to excellent starting field positions for the defense. The team that can sustain drives and convert scoring opportunities will win. The Irish should have the upper hand in the first half, and with a change in rush rate from Rees, Notre Dame has a chance to pull of the upset.
Pick: Notre Dame +3 First Half; Notre Dame +5.5 or better