NCAAF Picks: Our 2 Favorite Saturday Favorites
Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: West Virginia’s Garrett Greene.
- Stuckey and Collin Wilson are back with their favorite NCAAF favorites for Week 10.
- Stuckey is heading to the SEC, while Collin Wilson is making the trek to Morgantown.
- Dive in below to add these to your college football betting card.
Can you believe we are already onto Week 10?
You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article.
Well, we decided last year we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites, which we share weekly on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
Last week, I cashed with ease when Boise obliterated Wyoming on the blue turf, but Tulane didn't get to the window after building a 20-point halftime lead against Rice.
After five straight splits, our record is 11-7 (61.1%) on the season. Can anybody locate a broom closet? I'd eventually like to sweep again.
For Week 10, we are rolling with a pair of Power 5 favorites with the first kicking off at noon followed by one in prime time.
Stuckey: South Carolina -15.5
| Jacksonville State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | +500 |
| South Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | -700 |
This just looks like a classic get-right spot for a South Carolina team at the bottom of the market with a massive talent edge on both sides of the ball (and special teams).
Ultimately, I think we're getting a discount on the home Gamecocks against the road Gamecocks due to an astronomical strength of schedule disparity. SC sits at just 2-6 on the season, but all six losses came against opponents that were ranked at one point during the season.
Even crazier is the fact that only one of those games came at home for the Gamecocks.
Meanwhile, take a look at Jacksonville State's seven wins this season:
- UTEP
- ETSU
- Eastern Michigan
- Sam Houston State
- Middle Tennessee
- Western Kentucky
- Florida International
All seven victories came over opponents that sit outside the top 100 of my latest power ratings with three of those wins coming by one possession.
Keep in mind Jacksonville State didn't cover in a similar price range on the road at Coastal Carolina, which I have rated near a touchdown worse than South Carolina.
To further illustrate the stark schedule disparity, I have South Carolina's strength of schedule ranked No. 1 overall and Jacksonville State ranked No. 133. That's as wide of a gap as you'll ever see between two FBS teams.
Not only has South Carolina had the nation's most difficult schedule, but it also has been extremely unfortunate in a number of categories, including an FBS-low one fumble recovery on the season.
Opponents have also converted 14-of-19 on fourth downs, which includes three late conversions by Florida in a miraculous comeback win. Meanwhile, South Carolina has gone just 6-of-17 (35.3%) on offense.
From a matchup perspective, Jacksonville State can't take advantage of South Carolina's vulnerable secondary.
Conversely, Spencer Rattler and a healthier group of weapons on the outside should shred a porous Jacksonville State secondary that allowed Sam Houston to throw for almost 300 yards.
Plus, Jacksonville State uses extreme tempo, which works against it in the large underdog role. SC should have plenty of opportunities to put up a big number against an overmatched and undersized defense.
Lastly, Jax State also has a conference title on its mind with a very favorable remaining schedule. Consequently, I'm not sure head coach Rich Rodriguez will want to risk injuries or show too much, especially if this gets out of hand in the second half, so you could see backups get in the game sooner than usual or even some banged-up starters get a week off.
Meanwhile, South Carolina is still fighting under head coach Shane Beamer with bowl eligibility still a real possibility if it can sweep four home games against Jacksonville State, Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Clemson to close out the year. That's certainly doable.
I think the Gamecocks from the Palmetto State come out fully focused and put it on Jacksonville State from start to finish in a much-needed get-right game after four consecutive losses against an inferior opponent.
Lastly, for reference, since 2009, SEC teams are 55-38 (59.1%) ATS against CUSA opponents, covering by about a field goal per game.
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Wilson: West Virginia -12.5
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +425 |
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
Two teams sitting on five wins and a chance to make the postseason will collide in Morgantown on Saturday. West Virginia had a preseason win total close at 5, making the next victory a successful season for head coach Neal Brown.
The Mountaineers have been lethal on the ground, ranking top-30 in terms of being hit at or before the line of scrimmage.
Quarterback Garrett Greene leads a bulldozing unit with over 400 yards on the season, scoring three rushing touchdowns in Week 9 against UCF. CJ Donaldson has been the bell-cow running back in his second season, helping West Virginia score 23 red-zone touchdowns in 35 trips.
This all spells trouble for an ill-prepared BYU run defense that's reeling after a blowout in Austin to Texas. The Cougars have found the roads of the Big 12 unkind, losing to TCU by 33 and Kansas by two scores.
While the hire of defensive coordinator Jay Hill from Weber State will benefit the Cougars long-term, they just don't have the talent or depth along the defensive line to stop an elite rushing attack. Tackling issues also continue to plague the Cougars, who rank 129th in tackling and 113th in broken tackles allowed, per PFF.
That's ominous against West Virginia's heavy rush attack.
Meanwhile, the one-dimensional BYU offense will now have to deal with having a new quarterback under center, as Jake Retzlaff will get his first FBS start for Kedon Slovis, who has been dealing with injuries the past few weeks.
Not an ideal situation on the road in the heart of Big 12 play.
Look for West Virginia to control the clock and time of possession with sustained drives against an overmatched BYU team that picked up a few fraudulent wins earlier in the season.
I don't see the Cougars keeping up, while the defense should wear down late, allowing the Mountaineers to extend in the second half for a cover.
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