Temple vs. Cincinnati Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Overachieving Bearcats Giving Too Many

Temple at Cincinnati Odds

• Odds: Cincinnati -10
• Total: 45
• Time: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2

Model Prediction for Temple-Cincy

Collin Wilson uses his power ratings to project every college football spread and total. Get his Week 13 lines here and over/unders here.

• Spread: Cincinnati -8.3
• Total: 50.5

Just How Good Is Cincinnati?

Luke Fickell deserves a ton of credit for the job he’s done at Cincinnati. He’s taken the Bearcats from 4-8 in his first year to 11-2 in 2018, and now 9-1 in 2019. He’s done it with a great defense, solid running game, and a reliable quarterback in Desmond Ridder.

While Cincinnati ranks No. 19 in the College Football Playoff rankings and is in contention for a New Year's 6 bowl game, something has been off recently for Fickell's squad.

In the five games since their Week 6 monster win against UCF, the Bearcats have been outgained in all but one. They’ve been living on the edge against lesser competition and this week they take a step up against Temple.

The Owls started the year with a solid win against Maryland before dropping their road opener to Buffalo. After a tough loss to Memphis in an early AAC showdown, Temple endured blowouts against SMU and UCF, two of the best teams in the conference.

Advanced Metrics Like Temple

Despite the tough start to the season, I’ve been really impressed with how Temple has bounced back, particularly in last week’s win against Tulane as nearly a touchdown underdog at home.

The advanced metrics show that Temple’s defense is better than Cincinnati’s this season, despite the public narrative that argues otherwise.

That’s likely skewed by the Bearcats’ horrific performance against ECU, but it still demonstrates the strength of Temple's defense. Their defensive line, anchored by AAC sacks leader Quincy Roche, should dominate the line of scrimmage for a unit that also ranks 16th in passing success rate. That’s a great combination against the kind of one-dimensional offense they’ll face on Saturday.

My power number on this game makes the line Cincinnati -9 so there isn’t a ton of line value with this pick.

Instead I’ll lean on the advanced metrics and my eyes, which show that Cincinnati is a team that’s looked ripe for an upset in recent weeks.

Pick: Temple +10.5
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