Texas vs Baylor Odds, Picks | Horns to Roll In-State Rival?

Texas vs Baylor Odds, Picks | Horns to Roll In-State Rival? article feature image

Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images. Pictured: Quinn Ewers (Texas)

Texas vs Baylor Odds

Saturday, Sept. 23
7:30 p.m. ET
Texas Odds
-110o / -110u
Baylor Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

This college football slate is absolutely loaded. And amongst all the stellar matchups is a great test for the No. 3-ranked Texas Longhorns, as they go on the road to open up conference play against a wounded — but hungry — Baylor squad.

In Week 3, Texas struggled out of the gate against Wyoming before Quinn Ewers and company outscored the Cowboys 21-0 in the fourth quarter to ultimately pull out a convincing 31-10 victory.

On the other side, Baylor has had a disastrous start to its 2023 campaign, losing back-to-back games against Texas State and Utah before finally getting its first win against FCS Long Island.

To make matters worse, the Bears lost starting quarterback Blake Shapen to an MCL injury, which will result in him missing this Big 12 matchup against Texas.

To find out if Baylor can keep this one close despite a rocky start to the season, let’s take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Texas vs. Baylor.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

Texas Longhorns

Texas has had a perfect start to its season, taking down Alabama in Tuscaloosa and then pulling away late against Wyoming to win in convincing fashion.

This success has been driven by the stellar play of Ewers, who's seemed to take the next step in his progression from a season ago. The sophomore QB has 740 total passing yards to go with a perfect 8-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

These types of numbers have the Longhorns ranked 26th nationally in Passing Down Explosiveness.

If there's a question mark for this Texas offense, it comes in its ability to get consistent production on the ground. The Longhorns rank 98th nationally in Rushing Success Rate.

The Longhorns will look to get CJ Baxter back from injury against Baylor in order to develop a more consistent attack on the ground.

The return of Baxter comes at a good time, as the Longhorns face a Baylor front seven that's struggled so far this season. The Bears' defense ranks 126th nationally in Rushing Play Explosiveness Allowed and 84th nationally in overall Rushing Success Rate Allowed.

This combination of increased depth at the running back position and a favorable matchup against a weak Baylor defensive front makes this an ideal spot to back Texas from an offensive perspective.

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Baylor Bears

Ultimately, what I believe this handicap comes down to is what type of production Baylor will be able to generate against a talented Texas defense with backup Sawyer Robertson under center.

Against Long Island in Week 3, Robertson completed just 45.5% of his passing attempts for 113 yards.

As a result, Baylor leaned on its ground attack to generate 270 of its 391 total yards.

This dependence on the rushing attack is concerning against a Texas defense that's excelled in Rushing Play / Standard Downs situations. The Longhorns rank 16th nationally in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, giving up just under 100 rushing yards per game.

If Baylor is unable to generate consistent yards on the ground, it will force Robertson to create in Passing Down situations.

Through three weeks, the Baylor offense ranks outside the top 90 in Passing Down Success Rate.

Texas vs. Baylor

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas and Baylor match up statistically:

Texas Offense vs. Baylor Defense
Rush Success9884
Line Yards10179
Pass Success9464
Finishing Drives92124
Quality Drives2982
Baylor Offense vs. Texas Defense
Rush Success8314
Line Yards6531
Pass Success95102
Finishing Drives8339
Quality Drives6546
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling8595
PFF Coverage57116
Special Teams SP+2289
Middle 89361
Seconds per Play25.3 (38)27.1 (73)
Rush Rate53.0% (80)52.4% (68)

Texas vs. Baylor

Betting Pick & Prediction

It's clear that the public likes the Longhorns in this spot, as this line has been bet up from its initial open of -8 all the way up to -14.5 at the time of writing.

Even with this public money and steam, I believe this number still has value given the success Texas will have on the offensive side of the ball.

This Baylor defense presents a great opportunity for the Longhorns to establish a consistent rushing attack, further opening up the field for Ewers to create gash plays over the top.

On the other side, look for defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski to force this Baylor offense to beat them through the air with an unproven backup under center.

Pick: Texas -14.5 (Play to -16.5)
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