Texas vs Baylor Odds, Picks | Horns to Roll In-State Rival?

This college football slate is absolutely loaded. And amongst all the stellar matchups is a great test for the No. 3-ranked Texas Longhorns, as they go on the road to open up conference play against a wounded — but hungry — Baylor squad.

In Week 3, Texas struggled out of the gate against Wyoming before Quinn Ewers and company outscored the Cowboys 21-0 in the fourth quarter to ultimately pull out a convincing 31-10 victory.

On the other side, Baylor has had a disastrous start to its 2023 campaign, losing back-to-back games against Texas State and Utah before finally getting its first win against FCS Long Island.

To make matters worse, the Bears lost starting quarterback Blake Shapen to an MCL injury, which will result in him missing this Big 12 matchup against Texas.

To find out if Baylor can keep this one close despite a rocky start to the season, let’s take a look at the odds and make a prediction for Texas vs. Baylor.

Texas has had a perfect start to its season, taking down Alabama in Tuscaloosa and then pulling away late against Wyoming to win in convincing fashion.

This success has been driven by the stellar play of Ewers, who's seemed to take the next step in his progression from a season ago. The sophomore QB has 740 total passing yards to go with a perfect 8-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

These types of numbers have the Longhorns ranked 26th nationally in Passing Down Explosiveness.

If there's a question mark for this Texas offense, it comes in its ability to get consistent production on the ground. The Longhorns rank 98th nationally in Rushing Success Rate.

The Longhorns will look to get CJ Baxter back from injury against Baylor in order to develop a more consistent attack on the ground.

The return of Baxter comes at a good time, as the Longhorns face a Baylor front seven that's struggled so far this season. The Bears' defense ranks 126th nationally in Rushing Play Explosiveness Allowed and 84th nationally in overall Rushing Success Rate Allowed.

This combination of increased depth at the running back position and a favorable matchup against a weak Baylor defensive front makes this an ideal spot to back Texas from an offensive perspective.

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Ultimately, what I believe this handicap comes down to is what type of production Baylor will be able to generate against a talented Texas defense with backup Sawyer Robertson under center.

Against Long Island in Week 3, Robertson completed just 45.5% of his passing attempts for 113 yards.

As a result, Baylor leaned on its ground attack to generate 270 of its 391 total yards.

This dependence on the rushing attack is concerning against a Texas defense that's excelled in Rushing Play / Standard Downs situations. The Longhorns rank 16th nationally in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, giving up just under 100 rushing yards per game.

If Baylor is unable to generate consistent yards on the ground, it will force Robertson to create in Passing Down situations.

Through three weeks, the Baylor offense ranks outside the top 90 in Passing Down Success Rate.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas and Baylor match up statistically:

Texas Offense vs. Baylor Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	98	84
Line Yards	101	79
Pass Success	94	64
Havoc	15	50
Finishing Drives	92	124
Quality Drives	29	82

Baylor Offense vs. Texas Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	83	14
Line Yards	65	31
Pass Success	95	102
Havoc	68	49
Finishing Drives	83	39
Quality Drives	65	46

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	85	95
PFF Coverage	57	116
Special Teams SP+	22	89
Middle 8	93	61
Seconds per Play	25.3 (38)	27.1 (73)
Rush Rate	53.0% (80)	52.4% (68)

It's clear that the public likes the Longhorns in this spot, as this line has been bet up from its initial open of -8 all the way up to -14.5 at the time of writing.

Even with this public money and steam, I believe this number still has value given the success Texas will have on the offensive side of the ball.

This Baylor defense presents a great opportunity for the Longhorns to establish a consistent rushing attack, further opening up the field for Ewers to create gash plays over the top.

On the other side, look for defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski to force this Baylor offense to beat them through the air with an unproven backup under center.