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The Texas Longhorns take on the Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville, TN. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Texas is favored by -5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -218. The total is set at 55.5 points.
Here’s my Texas vs. Tennessee prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 26, 2026.
Texas vs Tennessee Prediction
- Texas vs. Tennessee Pick: Tennessee +5.5
My Tennessee vs. Texas best bet is on the Volunteers to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Texas vs Tennessee Odds
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 55.5 -112o / -108u | -218 |
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 55.5 -112o / -108u | +176 |
- Texas vs Tennessee point spread: Texas -5.5 (-110), Tennessee +5.5 (-110)
- Texas vs Tennessee over/under: 55.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Texas vs Tennessee moneyline: Texas -218, Tennessee +176
Texas vs Tennessee College Football Preview
Texas Longhorns
The No. 1 team in the nation — the Texas Longhorns — will look to escape one of the loudest environments in college football when they take the field at Neyland Stadium to face Tennessee.
Texas earned the right to be the top team in the nation after a massive fourth-quarter comeback in Week 2 against Ohio State. The Horns' defense dominated UTSA, setting up the first conference game of the season.
New defensive coordinator Will Muschamp has improved the Longhorns in a few key areas. The 3-3-5 personnel has helped them rank among the top 30 in FBS in tackle grading, per PFF, with particular success against rush explosives.
Texas has been fantastic against teams looking to create chunk plays, allowing only two plays from scrimmage to exceed 20 yards this season.
The defense has had trouble creating a pass rush, as no defender has more than four pressures outside of interior talent Lance Jackson and edge rusher Colin Simmons. Texas fans will be biting their nails in anticipation of Simmons' availability after he was on the sidelines of the UTSA game in a walking boot.
Head coach Steve Sarkisian has wrinkles to iron out on the offensive side of the ball, as Texas is outside the top 100 in havoc allowed and EPA.
The Longhorns have had consistent struggles creating explosive plays on the ground despite the additions of running backs Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers. Each rusher has created just two attempts over 15 yards, while Brown has a low 2.1 yards after first contact.
The offensive line has failed to control the trench, ranking outside the top 90 in line yards and stuff rate.
The best news of the season — other than the victory over Ohio State — is the offense's ability to generate points in scoring position. In 21 offensive drives that have crossed the opponent's 40-yard line, Texas is averaging 5.1 points per trip.
Tennessee Volunteers
The health of star running back DeSean Bishop is the biggest question heading into the Volunteers' first SEC game of the season. Bishop was sidelined with a hip injury against Kennesaw State, but he later re-entered and exited the game with the same issue.
Head coach Josh Heupel remarked that the staff felt good about getting him on the field against Texas.
Since Tennessee hasn't exactly played groundbreaking offenses so far this season, the data points have been sparse for the defensive side of the ball. The Volunteers have the 104th strength of schedule after facing Furman, Georgia Tech, and Kennesaw State.
The good news is the Vols have elite numbers against the pass from a success-rate perspective, along with a top-10 pass rush and tackle grade, per PFF.
Three linebackers have created two pass breakups apiece, while the team has collectively missed just 31 tackles.
The key player for the Volunteers is edge Tyree Weathersby, who's generating a team-leading nine pressures on 61 pass-rush attempts.
Texas vs Tennessee Pick, Betting Analysis
There's injury news for both teams at key positions, as Simmons of Texas and running back Bishop must be monitored on the SEC availability report.
From a head coach's early-week presser reaction, Bishop will be on the field, but the news around Simmons is less clear. The loss of Texas' best havoc player at the edge position could give Tennessee an extra second to throw.
Faizon Brandon has a pair of big-time throws and turnover-worthy plays, but he's also provided more than 50 rushing yards on designed calls. As for the passing game in Heupel's wide split veer and shoot, Brandon has dominated teams using Cover 3 and Quarters from a success rate standpoint.
Against Cover 3, Brandon has posted nearly a half point of EPA per attempt with a 66% success rate. Texas is 71st in opponent pass explosives allowed and is averaging a negative EPA in its primary look, Cover 3.
Despite being undefeated and ranked as the top team in the country, quarterback Arch Manning doesn't have an impressive analytical sheet. The senior has five big-time throws to three turnover-worthy plays this season.
What's more interesting is that all three of the mistakes have come against all three opponents.
The wide receiver unit hasn't helped the effort, already recording nine drops this season, up from 8% to 13.2% since last season. Cam Coleman is the only starting receiver without a drop, but his target share is on track to be the lowest of his career, dating back to two seasons at Auburn.
A play on Tennessee can't be based solely on the analytics because of its easy schedule. The Volunteers have done everything needed in those three victories, but the primary handicap is a Texas team with numerous potholes in the stat sheet.
Tennessee has been stellar in defending the pass, creating havoc and generating a pass rush so far.
All of those areas should be problematic to a Texas offense that has yet to find a productive flow. Without the ability to create chunk yardage on rushing attempts, the Volunteers are sure to double Coleman and pressure Manning.
Look for Bishop to ground and pound a Texas defensive front that's outside the top 40 in numerous ground-based analytics.
On the Longhorns' defense, keep tabs on Simmons health leading up to the game, as pressure against a freshman quarterback in Brandon is crucial.
Neyland Stadium will be one of the toughest places Texas will play all season, especially when it comes to getting the quarterback and receivers on the same page.
Pick: Tennessee +5.5
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