NCAAF Odds, Pick for Texas State vs Coastal Carolina
Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Coastal Carolina’s De’Andre Coleman.
Texas State vs Coastal Carolina Odds
| Texas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
| Coastal Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
The Texas State Bobcats head to Myrtle Beach to take on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers on the teal turf.
These squads are already bowl-eligible for the season — a big achievement for both teams.
Texas State has had to learn how to be a good football team, basically for the first time in school history. And Coastal Carolina has had to learn how to win without departed head coach Jamey Chadwell, and in recent weeks, without injured superstar quarterback Grayson McCall.
Let’s give some picks and predictions in a game that has seen some interesting line movement.
Coastal opened as a short favorite, but now Texas State is favored by two on the road. The total has cratered, opening at 68 but now down to 57.
There's a lot of intrigue in this cross-division Sun Belt game; how should we approach it?
Head coach GJ Kinne arrived in San Marcos with a wide-open playbook and a bevy of transfers. Much like Georgia Southern did last year, he has remade the team in one season with the help of a veteran transfer quarterback operating a new offense.
Quarterback TJ Finley has remade his career with the Bobcats; he has thrown for 2,505 yards with 18 touchdowns and only five picks. Meanwhile, running back Ismail Mahdi is one of the most productive all-purpose players in the country.
The offense is an efficiency monster.
Under Finley’s direction, they rank 11th in Rushing Success Rate and ninth in Passing Success Rate. However, they don’t create many big plays, ranking only 75th in explosiveness. It’s all tempo and matriculating the ball down the field.
The Bobcats have been really good at converting scoring opportunities into points. In Parker Fleming’s ECKEL stats, Texas State is 18th in the country in Points per ECKEL (a first down inside the opponent’s 40). But Coastal’s defense is strong in that area, ranking 30th in fewest Points Allowed per ECKEL.
Texas State’s defense is still a work in progress, ranking 100th in EPA margin. It struggles to prevent explosive plays, particularly on the ground, where it's 126th in that metric to pair with a mark of 101st against passing explosives.
The Bobs do rank 18th in Havoc, so it’s a boom-or-bust style. However, Coastal is middle of the pack at preventing Havoc.
Another bad metric for Texas State comes on third and fourth downs. It ranks 130th in the country in Success Rate Allowed on late downs.
Tim Beck had a massive uphill climb to replace Jamey Chadwell, the best coach in school history. The Chants stumbled out of the gate, losing their first two conference games, but they have won their last four in a row.
They have won the past two without the services of McCall, the three-time defending Sun Belt Player of the Year, after their do-everything quarterback was injured in their win over Arkansas State.
In past seasons, injuries to McCall have spelled a Coastal calamity; he ran the bespoke Chadwell system to perfection, and others could not fill his shoes.
But Beck and offensive coordinator Travis Trickett run a far more traditional scheme, and Jarrett Guest and Ethan Vasko performed extremely well and led Coastal to victories.
Vasko will get the nod this week; he ran for 170 yards last week and tossed another 180 as the Chanticleers downed Old Dominion.
Vasko will have the services of greased lightning wide receiver Jared Brown, who left the game last week but is cleared to play on Saturday. He’ll also have Sam Pinckney, and running backs CJ Beasley, Reese White and Braydon Bennett.
All told, Coastal has perhaps the deepest set of skill talent in the league.
What makes this offense tick? Explosive plays. The Chants rank sixth in FBS in big plays and top-30 in both rushing and passing explosives. Whether it’s a raw accounting of those plays or an adjusted metric like Beta Rank, Coastal has a huge mismatch in this area. Beta Rank has the Chants 30th in explosive drives on offense, with Texas State’s defense at 111th.
The defense has improved under a new coordinator, the itinerant Craig Naivar. Last year’s stop unit was one of the worst in the country, and the pass defense was one of the overall worst secondaries in the sport. This year is a return to respectability, as it's middle of the pack in FBS for most metrics and 65th in defensive SP+.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas State and Coastal Carolina match up statistically:
Texas State Offense vs. Coastal Carolina Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 11 | 102 | |
| Line Yards | 6 | 103 | |
| Pass Success | 9 | 19 | |
| Havoc | 87 | 74 | |
| Finishing Drives | 15 | 28 | |
| Quality Drives | 19 | 49 |
Coastal Carolina Offense vs. Texas State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 100 | 46 | |
| Line Yards | 100 | 52 | |
| Pass Success | 62 | 82 | |
| Havoc | 91 | 18 | |
| Finishing Drives | 102 | 33 | |
| Quality Drives | 11 | 91 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 113 | 28 |
| PFF Coverage | 67 | 25 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 21 | 111 |
| Middle 8 | 45 | 39 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.8 (15) | 28.3 (91) |
| Rush Rate | 54.7% (55) | 54.6% (58) |
Texas State vs Coastal Carolina
Betting Pick & Prediction
I’ll be backing the Chanticleers. There's a much deeper track record of success for the home team, and missing McCall is not the kiss of death that it once was.
Texas State, while one of the best surprise stories of the season, will give up a lot of big plays in this one. The Bobcats are good but also prone to having rollover halves, like against Nevada and Southern Miss, for example. At home, Coastal will test opponents for 60 minutes.
Both Parker Fleming and Bill Connelly’s numbers project Coastal by about a touchdown. Some other systems, like Action Network's Betting Power Ratings and Beta Rank, have it at a coin-flip.
Ultimately, I’ll take the team with the longer track record of success, home-field advantage and a couple of mismatch advantages.
Give me the Chants and the points, and play them up to -2.
Pick: Coastal Carolina +2.5 (Play to -2)
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