Tulsa vs Memphis Odds & Picks: Bet Tigers to Cover at Home

Tulsa vs Memphis Odds & Picks: Bet Tigers to Cover at Home article feature image

Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Memphis running back Brandon Thomas.

Tulsa vs Memphis Odds

Thursday, Nov. 10
7:30 p.m. ET
Tulsa Odds
-105o / -115u
Memphis Odds
-105o / -115u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Memphis, Tennessee, will be the site of a Thursday night AAC matchup between Memphis and Tulsa.

Both teams come into Thursday after losing a combined six straight. As a result, both teams’ bowl eligibilities will rely on this week’s outcome.

Memphis is looking to avoid its fifth loss in a row after losing four straight games by seven points or less.

On the other side, Tulsa is playing its second game in five days after falling to Tulane, 27-13, and producing just 257 yards of total offense.

To make matters worse for the Golden Hurricane, starting quarterback Davis Brin is a game-time decision after leaving last week’s game with a shoulder injury.

Will Memphis keep its bowl hopes alive despite losing four in a row? Or will Tulsa bounce back on a short turnaround with its starting quarterback's status in question?

Let’s dive in.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane

The Golden Hurricane must make an incredibly quick turnaround after losing on the road to Tulane just five days ago. Playing two road games with little downtime is no easy task for any team in college football.

To make matters worse for Tulsa, Brin exited last week's game with a shoulder injury and did not return.

Tulsa head coach Philip Montgomery said Brin was "day-to-day" heading into the matchup with the Tigers.  Montgomery added that the short week hasn't done Brin any favors in terms of making a return, as "every day is an opportunity to get healthier."

From an offensive perspective, the absence of Brin will make an already one-dimensional Golden Hurricane offense even more predictable.

When looking at the analytics, it's easy to see where Tulsa finds most of its success.

The Golden Hurricane rank 12th and 34th in Rushing Success Rate and EPA per Rush, respectively. However, Tulsa drops to 67th in Passing Success Rate and 82nd in EPA per Rush.

If Brin is unable to go on Thursday night, the success and frequency of this rushing attack will be vital.

Unfortunately for the Golden Hurricane, Memphis will welcome a run-based offense with open arms. The Tigers rank 28th and 32nd in EPA per Rush and Success Rate, respectively.

Even with Brin in the lineup, Memphis is equipped to take away the most lethal part of the Golden Hurricane's offensive attack: the run game.

In addition, Brin's status for Thursday night will be crucial given the offensive output the Golden Hurricane have allowed their opponents.

Defensively, Tulsa gives up 403.6 yards per game, resulting in 33.2 points per game.

The Golden Hurricane have been gashed on the ground, ranking 80th in EPA per Rush and 74th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate, allowing just over a 40% mark of success to opposing rushing attacks.

This inept play by Tulsa's front seven will be just what Memphis needs to get back on track from a winning perspective.

However, the Tigers have found much of their offensive success this season through the air. Although effective, this one-dimensional offensive style has resulted in Memphis coming up just short in 4 straight contests.

Adding a second dimension through the ground attack will be a lethal combo for the Tigers on Thursday night.

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Memphis Tigers

The Tigers enter Thursday's game desperate for a win. They're coming off of a bye week after losing four straight games, all to AAC opponents.

Those close losses have not been a result of the offense, which has been productive all year. Memphis has posted 421 yards per game, resulting in an average of 33.9 points per contest.

Coming off of a bye week, the Memphis offense will look to pick up right where it left off against Tulsa's defensive unit that ranks 90th in overall EPA margin.

Additionally, the Tulsa defense sits outside the top 100 in Line Yards, Havoc and Finishing Drives. This combination will result in an efficient offensive performance from the Tigers, who come into Thursday night averaging an impressive 4.2 points per scoring opportunity.

Memphis has been especially proficient in passing the ball, ranking 39th in EPA per Pass due to a 42% Success Rate.

It's important to note that Tulsa does rank 24th nationally in Defensive Passing Success Rate, allowing just 35%, and 21st in PFF coverage grading. However, these efficient numbers come as a result of Tulsa's opponents increasing their rush rate due to Golden Hurricane's weakness up front.

Even with these inflated numbers, Memphis — which averages 284.6 yards passing per game — should have no issue being effective through the air against the Golden Hurricane secondary. Although its coverage numbers are some of the best in the country, Tulsa still ranks 97th defensively in EPA per Pass.

Look for Memphis to slow down Tulsa's ground attack and take advantage of its entire defensive unit.

Tulsa vs Memphis Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tulsa and Memphis match up statistically:

Tulsa Offense vs. Memphis Defense
Rush Success5957
Line Yards5159
Pass Success73114
Pass Blocking**14103
Finishing Drives9123
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Memphis Offense vs. Tulsa Defense
Rush Success4089
Line Yards85100
Pass Success5427
Pass Blocking**6190
Finishing Drives44113
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling8630
PFF Coverage2164
SP+ Special Teams10211
Seconds per Play25.1 (39)24.1 (22)
Rush Rate51.7% (76)51.0% (79)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Tulsa vs Memphis Betting Pick

What this matchup comes down to is Memphis' ability to slow Tulsa down on the ground. The Golden Hurricane have relied on their rushing attack all season to keep them in games.

Memphis is equipped to limit them on the ground, putting pressure on a Tulsa passing attack that will start a banged-up Davis Brin if he even plays at all.

Simply put, the Tigers defense will allow their offense to outpace the Golden Hurricane.

Look for Memphis to end its four-game losing streak and keep its bowl dreams alive against an exhausted Tulsa team playing its second game in five days.

Pick: Memphis -6.5 ⋅ Play to -7

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