Sharp Bettors Hammer UCLA vs. Stanford Point Spread, Over/Under

Sharp Bettors Hammer UCLA vs. Stanford Point Spread, Over/Under article feature image

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chip Kelly

  • Quarterback injuries have had an impact on tonight's UCLA-Stanford betting lines, and so too has sharp action.
  • The Action Network's tools reveal whether sharps are fighting the line moves, or helping drive them.

If seeing a 3.5-point spread on tonight’s UCLA vs. Stanford matchup (9 p.m. ET) is a bit of a surprise to you, you probably aren’t alone. You might be especially surprised if you happened to check this line earlier in the week, when Stanford was as much as a 10-point favorite.

Odds as of Thursday at 11:30 a.m. ET. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Plenty has happened over the past few days to get us to the current number — specifically regarding the status of Stanford’s second-string quarterback turned starter, Davis Mills.

On Wednesday, head coach David Shaw announced that Mills would, indeed, miss this game, meaning the Cardinal are turning to QB3, Jack West.

An unwanted quarterback swap is going to result in a line move in almost any case, so it shouldn’t be too surprising to see a lower number than what was posted earlier in the week.

The question, though, is whether sharps have been fighting that line fall, or pushing it further.

According to Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, the answer has undoubtedly been that they’re continuing to push it lower. Ten signals — indicators of sharp money causing market-wide line moves — have hit UCLA throughout the line fall. It’s also worth noting that the Bruins are attracting just 22% of bettors and 38% of money, so there’s no certainly no popularity effect that could be adding to the move.

That shouldn’t really come as too much of a surprise — a 6.5-point move is generally reserved for the more elite players, not a dropoff from an already backup quarterback to a third-stringer.

The spread hasn’t been the only thing affected by quarterback status and sharp action. The total has seen a similarly dramatic line fall, going from 55 to 49.5, and once again sharps have been pushing the movement, not fighting it.

Four Bet Signals have hit the under, which has also drawn a higher percentage of money (67%) than bets (59%), driving this line to its current number.

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