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The UMass Minutemen take on the UConn Huskies in East Hartford, Connecticut, on Friday, Oct. 23. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
UConn is favored by -14.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -700. UMass, meanwhile, enters as a +14.5 underdog and is +500 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 49.5 total points.
Here’s my UMass vs. UConn prediction and college football pick for Friday, October 23.
UMass vs UConn Prediction
- UMass vs. UConn Pick: UConn 1H -7.5 (Play to -8.5)
My UConn vs. UMass best bet is on the Huskies to cover the first-half spread at home. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
UMass vs UConn Odds
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +500 |
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -700 |
- UMass vs UConn point spread: UConn -14.5 (-110), UMass +14.5 (-110)
- UMass vs UConn over/under: 49.5 (-110o / -110u)
- UMass vs UConn moneyline: UMass +500, UConn -700
UMass vs UConn College Football Preview
UMass Minutemen Betting Preview: September Feels So Far Away
UMass started off blazing out of the gate and quickly became America's September sweetheart. But a 38-14 blowout in front of its first sellout in decades at the hands of Eastern Michigan really threw water on the fire.
To make things infinitely worse, playmaking quarterback Pop Watson suffered a foot injury that sidelined him for the next two contests. Watson returned to practice in a walkthrough this week, improving the outlook of his availability Friday.
Without Watson in the backfield, UMass regressed offensively to what we've come to expect over the years. It gained just 34% of available yards against Miami (OH) and 38% of available yards against Buffalo.
Though more competitive than some guessed in those games, Miami has been horrendous without QB David McComb, and Buffalo is flying under the radar as a bottom-five FBS team with two FCS wins and one astounding upset over Toledo.
Credit has to be given— in addition to Joe Harasymiak for turning this roster around from historic levels of noncompetitiveness overnight — to coordinator Jared Keyte, whose defense is producing at a decent level despite being hilariously outgunned along the defensive line weekly.
The secondary has been exceptional, namely cornerback Jahmad Harmon (three interceptions), and the second level as a whole has been aptly disruptive.
But until Watson returns, this team is doomed. His ability to make plays off-schedule is uncanny, and the offense is built around his freelancing — something Logan Inagawa hasn't been able to replicate.
On the injury report, along with Watson, are leading receiver T.Y. Harding and rotational defensive end William DePaepe.
But with Ball State, Bowling Green and Akron — plus collapse-prone Toledo — left on the schedule (Ball State and Akron at home), UMass might snap its 54-year bowl drought after all.
UConn Huskies Betting Preview: Fragile Winning Formula
Jason Candle's UConn team is off to a 3-3 start, which isn't getting anyone up in arms considering the long history of losing here. However, as the season progresses, we get much better context of records and what's on the horizon.
UConn's three wins have come over teams with a combined 5-14 record, and the best individual record (2-4) belongs to FCS Lafayette.
Though two of those losses are tight, Miami (OH) hasn't proven to be very good, and Syracuse held a 20-point lead on the road before a shocking collapse.
Beyond UMass this coming week, UConn has a rough schedule: Air Force (away), North Carolina (home) and James Madison (home) — teams with a combined 16-3 record.
The offense has been largely built around a strong run game headlined by running back Cyncir Bowers and quarterback Kalieb Osborne.
Bowers has seen his role increase dramatically after receiving limited work to start the season. He has scored in five of UConn's six games, headlined by a 163-yard, two-touchdown outing against Syracuse.
The line gets a good push in that run game, but it has struggled quite a bit in pass protection.
Over the last three games, UConn's defense really struggled as the quality of opposing offenses increased. Miami (OH) managed to gain 72% of available yards, Syracuse hung 42 on them, and Temple busted open multiple explosive touchdown plays.
Against any decent or better offense, this defense just doesn't hold up. It's deficient along the line, leading to the 16th-worst Success Rate allowed on the season.
UConn has put a lid on opposing rushing attacks, limiting the number of explosive plays available. However, chunk yardage has still been too accessible.
UMass vs UConn Pick, Betting Analysis
UConn has a significant advantage this week. The Huskies come off a bye week and play at home, while UMass plays its second straight road game and goes on a bye next week.
UConn has also played only one away game in October, traveling less than 250 miles to Philadelphia in its 34-20 win over Temple in Week 6. In short, this is a well-rested and healthy football team.
UMass, meanwhile, comes off that arduous overtime loss at Buffalo and carries several key injuries. The team hasn't had time to recuperate after its cross-country trek to Sacramento State and has lost all three games since.
Market favorability toward UConn suggests Watson might return for this game. His return to practice is a good sign for UMass, especially since early rumblings suggested this injury might have been far worse.
The movement toward UConn contradicts Action PRO's tracked sharp plays on UConn. That, plus a disproportionate handle on UMass, suggests someone is confident Watson returns.
But I'm not willing to wager on tea leaves or a hunch. There's a strong chance UMass waits until after the bye to return Watson if he's close but not quite ready.
Instead, I'm looking for UConn to take a first-half lead given its massive rest advantage.
Candle has too many late-game breakdowns, and UMass has covered its tracks on more than one occasion this year. Inagawa wasn't excellent on the road last week, and I don't anticipate he gets off to a hot start here.
And if Watson returns, there's a chance he's limited in mobility.
Pick: UConn 1H -7.5 (Play to -8.5)
UMass vs UConn Betting Trends
