USC vs Cal Odds, Picks | College Football Betting Preview
Meg Oliphant/Getty Images. Pictured: USC’s Caleb Williams.
USC vs Cal Odds
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -105 | 67.5 -110o / -110u | -400 |
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -115 | 67.5 -110o / -110u | +310 |
USC looks to pick up the pieces of what is now a lost season when it travels to Berkeley to take on Cal as a -10.5 favorite with a total of 67.5.
Last week, Lincoln Riley lost to Utah for the third straight time, which marked USC's second loss of the season and ended its College Football Playoff hopes.
The Trojans are still alive to make the Pac-12 Championship game, but you have to wonder how deflating their last two losses have been given the preseason expectations.
Meanwhile, Cal is coming off a bye, but its last two games against ranked opponents in Oregon State and Utah have not gone well, as the Golden Bears gave up a combined 86 points.
They're currently sitting at 3-4 with not much hope of making a bowl game given the very difficult schedule to end the season.
Let's dive into the odds and make a USC vs. Cal pick and prediction in this college football betting preview for Saturday, Oct. 28.
Caleb Williams hasn't played well the last few games against Notre Dame and Utah, but both of those teams boast top-20 secondaries.
Overall, Williams is still a top-10 quarterback. He's just no longer the best.
He's averaging 9.5 yards per attempt and ranks eighth in EPA with a PFF passing grade of 80.2.
Williams is obviously a huge threat to run, but what truly makes him special is his ability to throw the ball deep. On passes of over 20 yards in the air, he has a 50% completion percentage and 10 touchdown passes, which is why USC is such a dangerous offense.
Even if Williams is off his game like he has been in the past few contests, USC's rushing attack has also been elite.
Main back MarShawn Lloyd is averaging a whopping 8.0 yards per carry. He has the third-best PFF rushing grade in the nation at 91, which has helped the Trojans to top-15 ranks in both Rushing Success Rate and EPA/Rush.
However, USC's defense cannot stop giving up explosive plays. The Trojans are allowing 5.6 yards per play, which is around the national average, but they rank 123rd in explosiveness allowed.
The Trojans' secondary has been getting torched repeatedly by every quarterback lately. The Trojans gave up over 300 yards passing to Arizona State, Colorado and Arizona. They would've done the same against Notre Dame, but Sam Hartman attempted only 20 passes because the Irish were having so much success on the ground.
Tackling was a major problem for the Trojans last season, and it remains a massive problem in 2023.
The reason USC is allowing so many explosive plays is that it isn't bringing ball-carriers down on first contact. The Trojans rank 100th in terms of tackling grade, per PFF. The fact that it's gone on this long essentially means it's purely a coaching problem.
Cal has an excellent rushing attack that can give USC a lot of problems in this game.
The Golden Bears rank top-25 in Rushing Success Rate an EPA/Rush, and it starts up front. They're dominating the line of scrimmage, ranking fifth in Offensive Line Yards and seventh in Stuff Rate Allowed.
Lead back Jaydn Ott has been thriving in this system, averaging 5.8 yards per carry, and has already forced 24 missed tackles. That should work well against a defense that can't tackle.
Right now, we don't know who's going to start at quarterback for the Golden Bears, but it's most likely going to be Fernando Mendoza.
Mendoza left the Utah game with an injury but had started the previous two games and has been a better option than Ben Finley at this point in the season. In fact, he's been better than Finley in terms of a PFF passing grade, EPA/Pass and yards per attempt.
Cal really struggles on defense, though. The Golden Bears are allowing 6.0 yards per play and sit outside the top 100 in Success Rate Allowed, EPA/Play Allowed and Finishing Drives Allowed — the triple whammy.
The weak link of the defense has been the secondary. The Bears are allowing 8.7 yards per pass attempt and rank outside the top 1oo in Passing Success Rate Allowed and EPA/Pass Allowed, so good luck stopping Williams.
USC vs. Cal
Betting Pick & Prediction
This game has high-scoring affair written all over it.
After having a couple of bad games with people starting to ask questions, this is a perfect opportunity for Williams to go out and light up the scoreboard against one of the worst secondaries in the Power 5.
USC should also be able to run the ball with relative ease behind Lloyd, as the Bears rank 98th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
The flip side of the coin is USC's defense is addicted to giving up explosive plays. Alex Grinch's defense can't tackle. It can't stop the run. It can't stop the pass.
Cal's rushing attack, which has been elite, should have a field day on the ground.
Both of these teams are playing at an above-average pace, so this game has the potential to get completely out of hand. I like the value on over 66 points, as it's never a bad idea to back an over with Riley on the sidelines.
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