After a fun first night of midweek MACtion, we're back for more on Wednesday.
Wednesday's college football slate features two games in America's favorite college football conference: the Northern Illinois Huskies vs. the Toledo Rockets and the Kent State Golden Flashes vs. the Ball State Cardinals.
Without further ado, let's take a look at our Wednesday college football predictions and NCAAF picks for the 2-game MAC slate on Wednesday, Nov. 5.
Wednesday College Football Predictions, Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Wednesday's slate of MACtion games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Northern Illinois vs Toledo Prediction
By Joshua Nunn
Toledo is a heavy 14.5-point favorite, and we've seen the Jason Candle-coached Rockets struggle in this role numerous times before.
I won’t be surprised if NIU can muck this game up, slow the pace and control the possession with its run game, so I'm going to take the points.
Huskies head coach Thomas Hammock has been an excellent road 'dog in his career, and I think the pace and the Huskies' run game will allow them to hang around in this one and keep it tighter than expected.
NIU is going to run the ball with Telly Johnson Jr. serving as the bell-cow back. Johnson is averaging 6.3 yards per carry on the ground this season, and while he hasn't been explosive, the NIU rushing attack is likely to do its job against a Toledo defense that ranks just 101st nationally in Success Rate allowed.
Northern Illinois has averaged five yards per carry in every MAC game this season, and I think it can do enough to move the ball and have some level of success here.
Defensively, NIU ranks 54th nationally in Success Rate allowed and 11th in EPA Per Play allowed. This defense has kept the Huskies in games all season, and Toledo doesn't have the offensive explosiveness to blow this game open.
The Rockets have feasted on some of the worst defenses in FCS in Kent State and Akron, and also destroyed a bad FCS team, but we've seen this offense stall out multiple times this year.
Toledo has been heavily penalized this season, having 63 accepted penalties called against it for 556 yards. Many of these flags were called in critical moments and impacted the final result. The Huskies, meanwhile, have been flagged only about half as much, and the hidden yardage and penalty yards should be in their favor here.
Toledo’s red-zone offense also hasn't performed well over the last five weeks, and NIU has a nasty red-zone defense that has forced five empty trips and 10 field goals.
I trust the Huskies' short-field defense to bow up inside the 20-yard line and make it very difficult for Toledo to end its drives with touchdowns.
Toledo has the most talent in the MAC year in and year out, but somehow, Candle and this coaching staff find ways to do less with more than anyone else in the league.
I don’t trust Candle as a heavy favorite, and the coach on the other side has been one of the most profitable for bettors in this road 'dog role — and we're getting two free touchdowns and the hook. I’m backing the Huskies here.
Pick: Northern Illinois +14.5
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Kent State vs Ball State Prediction
By John Feltman
If you’re looking for a low-scoring rock fight in the MAC, look no further than Wednesday night’s showdown between Kent State and Ball State. This has all the makings of an under.
Neither offense is built to light up the scoreboard, and both defenses quietly match up well against the opposing attack.
Kent State enters with the 81st-ranked passing unit in EPA Per Pass at just +0.02, and things are even worse on the ground, where its -0.21 EPA Per Rush ranks an abysmal 134th nationally.
That should feed right into Ball State’s defense, which is above average against the run and pass, ranking inside the top 90 in both categories.
The Golden Flashes also struggle mightily to stay on schedule, racking up an atrocious 31.8% of available yards, while working from one of the nation’s worst starting field positions (own 25).
Combine that with their early downs EPA Per Play sitting at -0.08 and a 36% Success Rate on late downs, and it’s clear this Kent offense is destined for plenty of punts, even against a below-average defense.
Although the Flashes looked better as of late, I don’t put a ton of stock into their offensive efficiency.
Ball State won’t be blowing anyone away either, especially with an aerial attack that ranks 126th in EPA Per Pass — a perfect matchup for the Kent State defense, which is quietly strong against the pass.
The Cardinals’ rushing attack is equally ineffective at -0.07 EPA Per Rush, 129th in the nation. When you combine that with a 35.2% conversion rate on third downs, it becomes clear that Ball State will struggle to sustain drives all night long.
To make matters worse, neither team benefits from a favorable field position, and both offenses find themselves in long-yardage situations often, averaging over seven yards to go on third downs.
All signs point toward stalled possessions and a fast-moving clock.
Pick: Under 47.5 (Play to 45.5)
