Week 13 rolls on into the afternoon slate.
And I roll on with three more ugly 'dogs to back.
Check out our Week 13 NCAAF predictions and college football picks below, and check out all of my Saturday Situational Spots here:
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3 p.m. | UAB +22.5 |
  | 3:30 pm. | UTSA +3 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | FIU +1.5 |
UAB +22.5 vs. USF
3 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
I do project this spread at under three touchdowns, so this would actually be worth a look in a vacuum, even though fading USF as a large favorite can get very scary since the Bulls play with so much tempo.
That's generally not ideal for an overmatched underdog.
However, this particular play has more to do with fading a potentially deflated USF squad that could come out of the gates very lethargic following last week's loss at Navy, which essentially eliminated it from College Football Playoff contention after being in the driver's seat.
I wouldn't be surprised if a flat Bulls bunch falls behind early against a very capable UAB offense that can also certainly get in the backdoor if needed.
Plus, it's reasonable to question whether or not head coach Alex Golesh will be all the way locked in this week with many potential job offers on the table.
If USF quarterback Byrum Brown and company come out fully focused from the jump, the Bulls could put up a 50-burger with ease against a pathetic UAB defense.
However, I'll pay to find out against a UAB team playing its final home game of the season and continuing to fight under interim head coach Alex Mortensen, who the players seem to enjoy playing for much more than Trent Dilfer.
You may look at last week's 53-24 home loss vs. North Texas and get scared off of the Blazers, but that was a very misleading final score against a Mean Green team that had all of the incentive in the world.
UAB finished with only 28 fewer yards (506-478) in a game that got away due to a -4 turnover margin.
Pick: UAB +22.5 (Play to +21.5)
UTSA +3 vs. East Carolina
3:30 pm. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Here's a roadmap for betting on UTSA under head coach Jeff Traylor.
Are the Roadrunners at home? If yes, then they are worth a look.
If not, it's probably a pass.
The Roadrunners have been absolutely dominant at home under Traylor, and I believe that continues on Saturday afternoon in San Antonio.
Keep in mind they have played five of their past seven games on the road, while the opposite has been true for the Pirates, who have played five of their past seven in Greenville.
I believe that's creating a bit of value on the home dog in a game I make close to a coin flip.
I think we have reached the peak of the ECU market, which remains in contention for an American title. However, this is still a team with two road wins on the year:
- At Temple against an Owls defense that had all backups in the secondary.
- At Coastal Carolina, early in the season, before the Chants figured some things out and changed quarterbacks.
That's it.
Meanwhile, UTSA has only played two home league games so far. It won both (including one against Tulane) by a combined score of 109-39.
This is just a different team in the Alamodome.
I also believe Owen McCown wasn't fully healthy earlier in the season, but he finally looks like himself again.
ECU has a very stout run defense, but can be had through the air, which is precisely how McCown and company will look to attack the Pirates from the very opening drive.
In what should be a back-and-forth affair, I'll take the points with the very reliable home team that's looking to play spoiler and clinch a postseason berth themselves.
Pick: UTSA +3 or Better
FIU +1.5 vs. Jacksonville State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
This is a tricky situational spot for the Gamecocks, who head to Florida after upsetting Kennesaw State to take over sole possession of first place in Conference USA. They also have a major showdown against Western Kentucky next week, a game that could determine who hosts the title game.
The Gamecocks could lock up a place in the title game with a victory, but I wouldn't be shocked if they came out a bit flat.
Meanwhile, I think you get a home-run effort from the Panthers in their final home game of the season with a chance to clinch bowl eligibility, which would be a very nice step in the right direction for the program under first-year head coach Willie Simmons.
Since Caden Creel has taken over at quarterback, Jacksonville State has gone 5-0 in league play following a blowout home loss against Southern Miss. However, let's take a closer look at those wins, as well as one earlier in the season over Liberty.
- W by 10 vs. Liberty (out-gained 534-390)
- W by 2 at SHSU (walk-off 52-yard FG)
- W by 14 vs. Delaware (out-gained 456-388)
- W by 3 at MTSU (even game)
- W by 3 at UTEP (coin flip game)
- W by 9 vs Kennesaw (out-gained 579-451)
Yes, they have gone 3-0 on the road in league play, but by a combined 8 points over three of the worst teams in the conference (UTEP, Sam Houston, MTSU) in games that easily could have gone the other direction.
The Gamecocks were also out-played statistically in several other contests, but have benefited from extreme turnover and fourth-down luck. It certainly doesn't hurt to have a +9 turnover margin in conference play, but that's a very unsustainable way to make a living.
Yes, TCU transfer running back Cam Cook has been a revelation for Jacksonville State. Still, he's been dominant all season, yet the Gamecocks are still barely pulling out these games. The pass game still lacks juice, and the defense has plenty of holes that FIU can exploit.
While I'm not sure if quarterback Keyone Jenkins will return from injury for FIU, I could make a case that the offense operates more efficiently with Joe Pesansky under center. Jenkins has had a pretty disappointing season, and his numbers leave a lot to be desired in 2025.
- Jenkins: 258 drop backs 6.2 YPA, 5 BTT, 13 TWP, 8.2 ADOT, 62.8% completion percentage
- Pesansky: 116 drop backs 7.1 YPA, 8 BTT, 4 TWP, 11.4 ADOT, 63.4% completion percentage
I could make a case that Jacksonville State is one of the most overrated teams in the country and has played much worse away from home against very poor competition.
Ultimately, I don't see much difference between these teams despite where they sit in the C-USA standings.
Plus, I fancy the spot for a now-healthy FIU defense that got absolutely shredded a few times earlier this season when riddled with injuries.
Pick: FIU +1 or Better
