West Virginia vs Houston Odds, Picks & Prediction | Thursday Betting Guide
Ron Jenkins/Getty Images. Pictured: West Virginia quarterback Garrett Greene.
WVU vs Houston Odds
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | -155 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | +130 |
West Virginia has gotten off to a hot start in conference play, picking up back-to-back victories over TCU and Texas Tech.
It will look to continue its winning ways across the state of Texas on Thursday as it takes on Houston.
Speaking of the Cougars, they come into this matchup off a much-needed bye week after their loss to Texas Tech. Houston was in a prime spot to succeed against the Red Raiders but instead lost by three scores.
Now, with a matchup against an opponent that has defeated the same teams the Cougars lost to in conference play, can they rally with the extra time to prepare?
Let's take a closer look at West Virginia vs. Houston to find out which side holds betting value in this Thursday night college football matchup.
When looking at the Mountaineers offensively, it's clear they want to keep the ball on the ground. However, they'll do so with a variety of ball-carriers.
The first player to highlight is running back CJ Donaldson Jr. The sophomore averages nearly 17 carries a game and has picked up nearly 4.7 yards per carry on the season.
We should see Donaldson get plenty of work in this matchup, as the Mountaineers not only rush at the fourth-highest rate in the country but also have a significant edge on the ground. WVU will get a consistent push up front with an offensive line that outranks the Cougars, 53-92, in Line Yards on this side of the ball.
However, the Cougars' rush defense woes may not stop at the first level. They're also 92nd in yards per rush allowed and 97th in tacking, per PFF.
What will amplify this edge is the mobility of quarterback Garrett Greene.
Greene missed about two full games with an ankle injury, but he was shifty his last time out. He rushed for 80 yards against TCU and found paydirt twice in that matchup.
His ability to extend plays and scramble will compound the Cougars' defensive flaws and could also create openings downfield, as Houston ranks 102nd in Defensive Passing Success Rate.
When you look at the Cougars on offense, you'll see a stark contrast from the Mountaineers.
Houston throws the ball at the 29th-highest rate in the country, and that's because it likes to keep the ball in the hands of its best playmaker, quarterback Donovan Smith.
Smith is much like Greene in the fact that he's very mobile and is a real threat to use his legs any time he drops back. Smith has also been excellent as a passer in Houston, coming in with a completion percentage of 65% and a passer rating of 135.9.
Although, this could be Smith's toughest test yet from a passing perspective. The Mountaineers rank second in the nation in completion percentage allowed and 30th in yards per pass allowed.
They've made life difficult for opposing quarterbacks this season and have proven they can stay stout even when giving up a completion or two.
West Virginia sits 23rd in Defensive Finishing Drives, and that could be the difference here if it can hold Houston to three points when it should score six.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how West Virginia and Houston match up statistically:
West Virginia Offense vs Houston Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 69 | 94 | |
| Line Yards | 53 | 92 | |
| Pass Success | 82 | 102 | |
| Havoc | 14 | 86 | |
| Finishing Drives | 83 | 108 | |
| Quality Drives | 93 | 81 |
Houston Offense vs West Virginia Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 82 | 49 | |
| Line Yards | 80 | 46 | |
| Pass Success | 68 | 33 | |
| Havoc | 40 | 21 | |
| Finishing Drives | 125 | 23 | |
| Quality Drives | 68 | 37 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 70 | 97 |
| PFF Coverage | 104 | 73 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 14 | 100 |
| Middle 8 | 32 | 52 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.2 (109) | 25.1 (34) |
| Rush Rate | 66.6% (4) | 47.0% (115) |
West Virginia vs Houston
Betting Pick, Prediction
This line has held firm, as it bounced around the key number of three all week. However, I see value in West Virginia even at -3, as the Mountaineers have the potential to control this game.
Their consistent rushing attack will keep Houston off the field and punish a Cougars defense that has yet to prove itself against the ground game.
On the other side, Smith has played well, but he could struggle with the extra time off. A few stalled drives will cost the Cougars in the long run.
Give me the Mountaineers to cover on the road.
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