Wilson: My Projected Over/Under for Every Week 3 College Football Game


Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Alan Bowman

Sep 10, 2019, 10:30 PM EDT
  • Collin Wilson uses pace data and more to project over/unders for college football Week 3.
  • Circa Sports in Las Vegas has been first to market in posting totals, getting them up Sunday afternoon before the rest of the market follows on Monday or Tuesday.

The big news in the college football betting space over Labor Day weekend was Circa Sports in Las Vegas posting totals on Sunday, which the sportsbook did again entering Week 3.

In the past, operators would put totals out as late as Tuesday at lower limits and then we’d see lightning-fast movements. Now, we’re just waiting for everyone else to mirror Circa’s numbers.

So how do totals get made? Oddsmakers assign total point value to each FBS team, then adjust for weather and pace to make a game total.

Our total projections below are a combination of plays per game, yards per play, and adjusted pace. Ratings in standard and passing downs run rate also dictate movement in a projection.

Every Monday, The Action Network will provide projections on totals for every game for the following week to find early betting value against Circa and the subsequent market.

Be sure to check out the The Action Network power ratings that are built as result of injuries, true box score results and advanced stats to find betting value on sides.

Follow me in The Action Network App to see when I bet opening lines early in the week.

Projected College Football Totals, Week 3

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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