Wilson: My Projected Over/Under for Every Week 3 College Football Game

Wilson: My Projected Over/Under for Every Week 3 College Football Game article feature image

Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Alan Bowman

  • Collin Wilson uses pace data and more to project over/unders for college football Week 3.
  • Circa Sports in Las Vegas has been first to market in posting totals, getting them up Sunday afternoon before the rest of the market follows on Monday or Tuesday.

The big news in the college football betting space over Labor Day weekend was Circa Sports in Las Vegas posting totals on Sunday, which the sportsbook did again entering Week 3.

In the past, operators would put totals out as late as Tuesday at lower limits and then we’d see lightning-fast movements. Now, we’re just waiting for everyone else to mirror Circa’s numbers.

So how do totals get made? Oddsmakers assign total point value to each FBS team, then adjust for weather and pace to make a game total.

Our total projections below are a combination of plays per game, yards per play, and adjusted pace. Ratings in standard and passing downs run rate also dictate movement in a projection.

Every Monday, The Action Network will provide projections on totals for every game for the following week to find early betting value against Circa and the subsequent market.

Be sure to check out the The Action Network power ratings that are built as result of injuries, true box score results and advanced stats to find betting value on sides.

Follow me in The Action Network App to see when I bet opening lines early in the week.

Projected College Football Totals, Week 3

Notes on Totals

  • Early forecast for the weekend calls for rain in the northeast. Keep an eye on total dips for for Boston College, Navy and Penn State who all host Week 3
  • Through two games UCLA is averaging 66.5 plays per game, lower than the 2018 average of 73.8. Granted their season has consisted of Cincinnati and San Diego State, the Bruins may be in for an uptempo shock against Oklahoma
  • The teams with the worst yards per play differential thus far are Central Michigan and Houston. An Over may be warranted in their games until any kind of defense is played. The Cougars allowed Prairie View A&M to generate explosive plays and score 17 points.
  • To no surprise, Central Florida has a yards per play differential of +5.0. Almost every completion was an explosive play by Dillon Gabriel, with 245 yards on just 7 receptions for the Knights

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