Monday's home run board on Polymarket is loaded, with a range of MLB games giving traders dozens of contracts to choose from.
We pulled the top 5 home run props for every game and ranked them by implied probability, so these are the best MLB home run predictions today no matter which matchup you're watching.
Every game also gets our top 2 recommended plays, the two highest-priced contracts on that board, so you always know where the value is concentrated.
Sign up now along with the current Polymarket promo code: ACTION, which allows new users to Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus!
How We Pick the Best Home Run Bets Today
Every player below comes straight from Polymarket's home run board for that specific game, ranked by the Yes price on their 1+ home run contract.
Our top 2 recommended plays per game have the highest implied probability of that player going deep, based on what other Polymarket traders are thinking, which is exactly the shortcut you need for the best home run bets today.
Giants vs Braves Prediction
Atlanta is 82-55 and riding a hot streak, while San Francisco (56-81) is closing out a lost season on the road.
Top 5 Home Run Props
Ranked by implied probability, Matt Olson and Rafael Devers sit atop this board as the two most likely home run hitters tonight.
- Matt Olson (1+ HR: Yes 22%, No 79%): Olson has been Atlanta's most consistent power threat all year against a first-time opener.
- Rafael Devers (1+ HR: Yes 22%, No 79%): Devers leads the Giants in homers this season and gives San Francisco its best shot at doing damage.
- Michael Harris II (1+ HR: Yes 17%, No 84%): Harris has been a steady middle-of-the-order bat for a Braves lineup that's clicking right now.
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (1+ HR: Yes 17%, No 84%): Acuña's price slid 5 points today but he's still a threat against an inexperienced arm.
- Drake Baldwin (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 85%): Baldwin has quietly provided pop from the catcher spot for Atlanta all season.
Best bets: Matt Olson and Rafael Devers are our top two plays here, tied at the top of the board against a Giants opener making just his fifth career appearance.
Padres vs Reds Prediction
San Diego (72-65) sends Michael King to the mound against a Cincinnati staff that's allowed 19 home runs over its last 10 games.
Top 5 Home Run Props
Ranked by implied probability, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill lead the board, tied at the top for the Padres.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (1+ HR: Yes 22%, No 79%): Tatis remains San Diego's top power threat against a Reds staff that's been bleeding home runs lately.
- Jackson Merrill (1+ HR: Yes 22%, No 79%): Merrill has emerged as one of the Padres' most dangerous bats all season.
- JJ Bleday (1+ HR: Yes 20%, No 81%): Bleday rounds out a Padres lineup that should feast on Cincinnati's shaky pitching tonight.
- Manny Machado (1+ HR: Yes 19%, No 82%): Machado remains a steady power source in the middle of San Diego's order.
- Eugenio Suárez (1+ HR: Yes 18%, No 83%): Suárez gives the Padres another legitimate threat further down the lineup.
Best bets: Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill top this board, and Cincinnati's staff has been about as generous as it gets with the long ball lately.
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Mets vs Rays Prediction
Tampa Bay (82-54) leads the AL East and sends Ian Seymour to the mound, while a struggling Mets staff (61-76) has allowed 13 home runs over its last 10 games.
Top 5 Home Run Props
Ranked by implied probability, Junior Caminero and Juan Soto lead the board as the two most likely home run hitters tonight.
- Junior Caminero (1+ HR: Yes 22%, No 79%): Caminero has been one of Tampa Bay's most explosive young bats all season.
- Juan Soto (1+ HR: Yes 20%, No 81%): Soto gives the Mets their top power threat against a Rays club chasing a fourth straight home win.
- Francisco Lindor (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 85%): Lindor gained a point today and continues to anchor the middle of the Mets order.
- Luis Robert Jr. (1+ HR: Yes 15%, No 86%): Robert has developed into a steady power bat for Tampa Bay's lineup.
- Jonathan Aranda (1+ HR: Yes 12%, No 89%): Aranda rounds out a top five that leans mostly toward the home dugout.
Best bets: Junior Caminero and Juan Soto are the headline plays here, with the Mets' struggling staff giving Caminero extra appeal as the board's top price.
Mariners vs Red Sox Prediction
Seattle (64-73) sends George Kirby to Fenway against Boston's Payton Tolle (74-63), with the Red Sox having allowed 12 home runs over their last 10 games.
Top 5 Home Run Props
Ranked by implied probability, Wilyer Abreu and Julio Rodríguez lead this board as the two most likely home run hitters tonight.
- Wilyer Abreu (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 85%): Abreu tops the board for Boston against a Mariners staff that's had its own long-ball issues.
- Julio Rodríguez (1+ HR: Yes 15%, No 86%): Rodríguez remains Seattle's most dangerous bat even amid a four-game losing streak.
- Randy Arozarena (1+ HR: Yes 14%, No 87%): Arozarena's price slid 2 points today but he's still a threat every time he's in the box.
- Taylor Ward (1+ HR: Yes 11%, No 92%): Ward gives Boston another power option in the middle of the lineup.
- Dominic Canzone (1+ HR: Yes 10%, No 91%): Canzone rounds out a top five that leans slightly toward the home dugout.
Best bets: Wilyer Abreu and Julio Rodríguez are the two highest-priced contracts on this board, and Cal Raleigh's recent power surge (six homers over his last 10 games) is worth watching even outside the top two.
That's the first four games in the books, but there's plenty more to tonight's best MLB home run predictions today across the rest of the slate.
Marlins vs Nationals Prediction
Miami (69-68) sends Ryan Gusto to the mound against Washington's Will Dion, who's making his MLB debut, with the Nationals having allowed 12 home runs over their last 10 games.
Top 5 Home Run Props
Ranked by implied probability, Heriberto Hernández and Kyle Stowers lead the board as the two most likely home run hitters tonight.
- Heriberto Hernández (1+ HR: Yes 20%, No 81%): Hernández tops this board for Miami against a Nationals rookie making his first career start.
- Kyle Stowers (1+ HR: Yes 18%, No 84%): Stowers has been a steady power source for the Marlins all season.
- Abimelec Ortiz (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 87%): Ortiz's price dropped 5 points today but he remains a threat in this lineup.
- CJ Abrams (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 85%): Abrams gives Washington its top power option against a Marlins staff that's been solid lately.
- Daylen Lile (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 85%): Lile rounds out a tightly bunched top five on this board.
Best bets: Heriberto Hernández and Kyle Stowers are our top two plays, both facing a Nationals starter making his MLB debut tonight.
Tigers vs Twins Prediction
Detroit (63-73) sends Jackson Jobe to the mound against Minnesota, whose staff has allowed nine home runs over its last 10 games.
Top 5 Home Run Props
Ranked by implied probability, Kody Clemens and Royce Lewis lead the board as the two most likely home run hitters tonight.
- Kody Clemens (1+ HR: Yes 20%, No 81%): Clemens has carved out a role as a power bat off the bench for Detroit and tops this board.
- Royce Lewis (1+ HR: Yes 17%, No 84%): Lewis remains one of Minnesota's most dangerous hitters when he's in the lineup.
- Dillon Dingler (1+ HR: Yes 14%, No 87%): Dingler has shown real over-the-fence pop from the catcher spot this year.
- Spencer Torkelson (1+ HR: Yes 14%, No 87%): Torkelson's price barely moved today, a sign the market sees his form as steady.
- Colt Keith (1+ HR: Yes 13%, No 88%): Keith rounds out a Tigers lineup with several bats capable of hitting one out.
Best bets: Kody Clemens and Royce Lewis top this board, with Minnesota's shaky staff (5.08 ERA over its last 10 games) adding extra appeal to the Tigers' side.
Brewers vs Cubs Prediction
Milwaukee (85-52) owns the best record in baseball and sends Kyle Harrison to the mound against Chicago's Clay Holmes, one of the sharpest pitching matchups on the entire slate.
Top 5 Home Run Props
Ranked by implied probability, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki lead the board as the two most likely home run hitters tonight.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (1+ HR: Yes 24%, No 77%): Crow-Armstrong has been one of the Cubs' most dynamic bats all season and leads this board.
- Seiya Suzuki (1+ HR: Yes 20%, No 81%): Suzuki's price ticked up a point today, a small sign of positive momentum heading in.
- Jake Bauers (1+ HR: Yes 19%, No 82%): Bauers has carved out a productive role in the middle of Chicago's lineup this year.
- Jackson Chourio (1+ HR: Yes 18%, No 83%): Chourio remains one of Milwaukee's most explosive young bats even against a tough lefty.
- Alex Bregman (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 85%): Bregman gained a point today and continues to anchor the middle of the Brewers order.
Best bets: Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki are the two highest-priced contracts here, even with two elite arms on the mound tonight.
White Sox vs Astros Prediction
Chicago (72-64) leads the AL Central and visits an Astros staff (69-68) that's allowed 11 home runs over its last 10 games.
Top 5 Home Run Props
Ranked by implied probability, Munetaka Murakami and Yordan Alvarez lead the board, tied at the top of this one.
- Munetaka Murakami (1+ HR: Yes 22%, No 79%): Murakami has developed into a real power threat for the White Sox this season.
- Yordan Alvarez (1+ HR: Yes 22%, No 79%): Alvarez remains Houston's most dangerous bat even in a rough recent stretch for the Astros' pitching staff.
- Colson Montgomery (1+ HR: Yes 18%, No 83%): Montgomery gained a point today and continues to develop into a real threat for Chicago.
- Miguel Vargas (1+ HR: Yes 18%, No 84%): Vargas has been red-hot lately, slashing .355/.545/.484 over his last 10 games.
- Christian Walker (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 85%): Walker rounds out a top five that leans toward the visiting White Sox tonight.
Best bets: Munetaka Murakami and Yordan Alvarez top this board, and Houston's leaky staff (5.52 ERA over its last 10 games) makes the White Sox side especially appealing.
We're two-thirds through tonight's board, and the best home run bets today keep getting more interesting as the later start times roll in.
Orioles vs Rockies Prediction
Baltimore (68-69) travels to Coors Field, MLB's most hitter-friendly park at roughly 13% above league average for runs scored, to face a Rockies club that's lost four straight.
Top 5 Home Run Props
Ranked by implied probability, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Hunter Goodman lead the board as the two most likely home run hitters tonight.
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1+ HR: Yes 24%, No 79%): Encarnacion-Strand tops this board, and Coors Field's altitude only adds to his power profile tonight.
- Hunter Goodman (1+ HR: Yes 20%, No 82%): Goodman has blasted 36 home runs this season and remains Colorado's top power threat.
- Gunnar Henderson (1+ HR: Yes 19%, No 82%): Henderson's price slid 4 points today but he's still a serious threat at altitude.
- Jackson Holliday (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 85%): Holliday dropped 5 points today, though Coors Field remains a friendly launching pad for any hitter.
- Mickey Moniak (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 85%): Moniak rounds out a top five that's boosted across the board by the thin Denver air.
Best bets: Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Hunter Goodman are our top two plays, and this entire board runs hotter than usual thanks to Coors Field's elevation.
Yankees vs Angels Prediction
New York (78-59) just took three of four from Boston, while Los Angeles (52-85) starts rookie Elmer Rodríguez, who carries a 4.70 ERA in his first five career appearances.
Top 5 Home Run Props
Ranked by implied probability, Ben Rice and Mike Trout lead the board as the two most likely home run hitters in this matchup.
- Ben Rice (1+ HR: Yes 18%, No 83%): Rice tops this board against a rookie starter making just his fifth career appearance.
- Mike Trout (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 85%): Trout remains a threat every time he steps in the box, even in a lost Angels season.
- Trent Grisham (1+ HR: Yes 16%, No 87%): Grisham has provided steady pop from the outfield for New York all year.
- Luis Garcia Jr. (1+ HR: Yes 15%, No 89%): Garcia continues to be one of the lone bright spots in a difficult Angels season.
- Zach Neto (1+ HR: Yes 15%, No 86%): Neto rounds out a top five that leans slightly toward the home dugout tonight.
Best bets: Ben Rice and Mike Trout are the two highest-priced contracts on this board, with Rice drawing the softer matchup against New York's rookie opponent.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction
Philadelphia (77-60) sends Aaron Nola to Chase Field against Arizona's Brandon Pfaadt (73-65, 7-1, 3.51 ERA), one of the more reliable arms in the desert this year.
Top 5 Home Run Props
Ranked by implied probability, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper lead the board as the two most likely home run hitters in this one.
- Kyle Schwarber (1+ HR: Yes 22%, No 79%): Schwarber has been Philadelphia's premier power bat all season and leads this board comfortably.
- Bryce Harper (1+ HR: Yes 15%, No 86%): Harper remains one of the most dangerous middle-of-the-order threats in the league.
- Corbin Carroll (1+ HR: Yes 13%, No 88%): Carroll gives Arizona a legitimate top-of-the-order power threat tonight.
- Lars Nootbaar (1+ HR: Yes 12%, No 89%): Nootbaar gained 2 points today, a modest but notable bump for the Diamondbacks outfielder.
- Max Kepler (1+ HR: Yes 11%, No 90%): Kepler rounds out a top five that leans heavily toward the Phillies' lineup tonight.
Best bets: Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are the clear top two plays here, well ahead of the next name on this board.
Polymarket has plenty of additional games on the board beyond these 11, so it's worth checking the full slate before you're done trading tonight.
Use Polymarket Promo Code 'ACTION' to Trade the Best Home Run Bets Today
Ready to take a position on any of these 11 games? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.
Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates before you place your first trade.
If you want a broader view of the space, the prediction market apps roundup breaks down how Polymarket compares to other exchanges for finding the best home run bets today.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of live order book movements across all 11 games.
- Check the broader prediction markets hub for coverage beyond tonight's home run board.
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Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and do not guarantee future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
Monday's Home Run Board: Final Thoughts
Ballpark and pitching-staff context matters as much as the raw price tonight, with Coors Field's altitude giving the Orioles-Rockies board an extra boost across the entire top five.
Leaky pitching staffs in Cincinnati, Houston and New York also stand out as spots where the board's implied probabilities line up with real recent form, not just name recognition.
Taken together, these 11 games make up a genuinely deep slate of the best MLB home run predictions today across the exchange.
Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today FAQs
What is the Polymarket promo code today?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a $50 trading bonus for new users who sign up.
What are the best MLB home run predictions today?
Across all 11 games, the highest-priced contracts on the board are Pete Crow-Armstrong and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, both tied at 24% implied probability.
How do Polymarket contracts work?
Each contract represents a Yes or No outcome, priced in cents between 0 and 100, where the price roughly reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome happening.
Shares that resolve correctly pay out $1 each, while shares on the losing side pay out nothing.
Why do home run props at Coors Field look higher across the board?
Coors Field sits at roughly 5,200 feet of elevation and runs about 13% above the league average for runs scored, which tends to push every hitter's home run price up regardless of individual form.
How do I use the Polymarket promo code?
New users can enter ACTION during signup to unlock the $50 trading bonus before placing their first trade.
When do these MLB markets resolve?
Each market resolves once its underlying game reaches a final, official result according to MLB's box score.
Are there more MLB games available on Polymarket tonight?
Yes, Polymarket lists additional games beyond the 11 covered in this piece, so it's worth browsing the full board for more home run props.
