The Brewers roll into Wrigley Field Monday holding first place in the NL Central at 85-52, but the second-place Cubs (77-60) aren't going away quietly.
Milwaukee hands the ball to Kyle Harrison, while Chicago counters with deadline pickup Clay Holmes, who has settled in nicely since arriving from the Mets.
Polymarket's board treats this Brewers vs Cubs prediction as close to a true coin flip, and we've got the best MLB player props today across both lineups and both starters.
You can trade each contract below using the current Polymarket promo code: ACTION, which allows new users to Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus!
Best Total Bases Pick Today – Jackson Chourio (Editor's Pick)
Chourio just reached 20 home runs for the third straight season, taking a Cal Quantrill cutter out to right-center in Sunday's win over the Rangers.
That's the kind of season only a handful of players have ever put together by age 22, and it's why we're buying his 2+ total bases contract at 46¢ tonight.
Holmes has been effective for Chicago in his last two turns, but he's a ground-ball sinkerballer who lives in the strike zone, and Chourio's bat speed against that kind of stuff has produced extra-base contact all month.
We're taking a position on Chourio clearing two total bases before Milwaukee's lineup turns over twice.
Buying $100 of the Yes side at an average price of 46¢ works out to roughly 217 shares, and the ticket lists a to-win figure of $210.56 on this size order.
- If Chourio's total bases contract resolves Yes: the position pays out for a profit of $210.56 on the $100 stake.
- If it resolves No: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
It's a little better than 2-to-1 on the payout side for a hitter who's been steadily clearing this number all season.
Sign up with Polymarket promo code ACTIONand you'll be able to Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus!
Best Hits + Runs + RBIs Pick Today – Pete Crow-Armstrong (Editor's Pick)
Crow-Armstrong is in the middle of a monster season, sitting on 33 home runs and 32 stolen bases after signing a six-year extension back in March.
He drove in six runs on four hits against Cincinnati recently, and he's the type of table-setter who racks up hits, runs, and RBIs in bunches when the Cubs' offense gets going.
Against a Brewers bullpen that will lean on its younger arms if Harrison's pitch count climbs early, we like Crow-Armstrong to clear this 2+ hits, runs, plus RBIs line.
Buying $100 of the Yes side at an average price of 56¢ works out to roughly 179 shares, and the ticket lists a to-win figure of $173.98 on this size order.
- If the contract resolves Yes: the position pays out for a profit of $173.98 on the $100 stake.
- If it resolves No: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Roughly a 1.7-to-1 payout on a contract that's already priced as a slight favorite, which is the kind of shape we like on a hitter this hot.
Best Outs Recorded Pick Today – Clay Holmes (Editor's Pick)
Holmes has thrown 6⅔ scoreless innings against the Cardinals and 5⅓ innings of one-run ball against the White Sox in his two turns since Chicago acquired him from the Mets at the deadline.
That's a Cubs team leaning on him for length in a playoff push, and his sinker keeps hitters off balance and pitch counts manageable.
We're backing Holmes to record at least 16 outs, essentially working deep into the sixth inning, against a Brewers lineup that will see him for a third time by then.
Buying $100 of the Yes side at an average price of 50¢ works out to exactly 200 shares, and the ticket lists a to-win figure of $194.18 on this size order.
- If Holmes' 16+ outs recorded contract resolves Yes: the position pays out for a profit of $194.18 on the $100 stake.
- If it resolves No: the full $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
Almost exactly even money on a workhorse who's given Chicago length in both starts since the trade.
Brewers vs Cubs Odds: Polymarket Money Line Contracts
Money line contracts resolve based on the final result of the game, no run line attached, so the price you see is a direct read on each team's win probability.
This Brewers vs Cubs prediction currently sits as close to a dead heat as the board gets, a fitting price for a division race this tight down the stretch.
Brewers (50%, Yes 50¢)
Milwaukee's 50¢ price reflects its status as the better team on paper this season, but road games at Wrigley in a pennant race rarely play out like a formality, and the board isn't giving the Brewers much of an edge here.
Cubs (50%, Yes 50¢)
Chicago sits at the same 50¢, with the home crowd and a deadline-fortified rotation behind Holmes helping offset Milwaukee's better overall record.
Brewers vs Cubs Spread and Total Predictions
Brewers to win by over 1.5 runs (39¢ Yes, 62¢ No)
The market gives Milwaukee only a 39% shot at covering a run and a half, which tells you the board expects this one to be tight even if the Brewers do come away with the win.
Over 9.5 total runs (50¢ Yes, 50¢ No)
A perfectly split total says the board sees a middle-of-the-road offensive night between two lineups that both have thump in the middle of the order.
Best MLB Player Props Today: Home Runs
Some contracts on this board only have one side actively priced, so anything not shown below simply isn't quoted yet.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (Home Runs 1+: 24¢, No 77¢): the board's top home run price tonight, fitting for a 33-homer season that's turned him into the Cubs' most dangerous power threat.
- Seiya Suzuki (Home Runs 1+: 20¢, No 81¢): Suzuki has been a steady middle-of-the-order presence for Chicago all year and gets a second look here behind PCA.
- Jake Bauers (Home Runs 1+: 19¢, No 82¢): Bauers has quietly been Milwaukee's RBI leader this season, and his price here reflects real thump against right-handed pitching.
- Jackson Chourio (Home Runs 1+: 18¢, No 83¢): already discussed above in the Editor's Pick, Chourio's power is trending up after hitting his 20th homer of the season Sunday.
- Alex Bregman (Home Runs 1+: 16¢, No 85¢): Bregman's contact-first approach keeps this price modest, but he's capable of pulling one out against a fastball he can turn on.
- William Contreras (Home Runs 1+: 15¢, No 86¢): Contreras remains one of the more underrated power bats in Milwaukee's order, priced just behind Bregman.
- Michael Busch (Home Runs 1+: 14¢, No 87¢): Busch has pop from the left side and slots in as a mid-tier long shot on this board.
- Brice Turang (Home Runs 1+: 11¢, No 90¢): Turang's game is built more on contact and speed, so this price is a true long shot rather than a real lean.
- Garrett Mitchell (Home Runs 1+: 11¢, No 91¢): Mitchell brings speed and defense first, with home run power as a bonus on a good swing.
- Christian Yelich (Home Runs 1+: 10¢, No 91¢): Yelich's price has settled into a longer shot territory as he's leaned more into contact this season.
- Nico Hoerner (Home Runs 1+: 7¢, No 94¢): Hoerner is the board's longest home run shot on either side, consistent with a game built around defense and on-base skills rather than power.
Hits
Contact-based props tend to price closer to a coin flip than power props, and this board reflects that with several names sitting in the 60s and 70s.
- Nico Hoerner (Hits 1+: 72¢, No 33¢): Hoerner's contact skills make him the board's safest bet to reach base on a hit tonight.
- William Contreras (Hits 1+: 70¢, No 33¢): Contreras' bat-to-ball skills keep him near the top of this list as well.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (Hits 1+: 69¢, No 32¢): even with his power upside, PCA's contract here is priced on simple volume of at-bats and contact rate.
- Brice Turang (Hits 1+: 69¢, No 32¢): Turang's speed-and-contact profile makes him one of the more reliable hit sources in Milwaukee's lineup.
- Christian Yelich (Hits 1+: 67¢, No 35¢): Yelich's veteran approach keeps this number respectable even in a down power year.
- Seiya Suzuki (Hits 1+: 66¢, No 36¢): Suzuki's all-around game supports a hit price in the mid-60s most nights.
- Jake Bauers (Hits 1+: 65¢, No 37¢): Bauers is priced right in line with Milwaukee's other everyday bats.
- Alex Bregman (Hits 1+: 65¢, No 36¢): Bregman's contact-oriented swing keeps him grouped with the board's steadier hit props.
- Garrett Mitchell (Hits 1+: 64¢, No 38¢): Mitchell's speed helps him leg out infield hits that boost this number.
- Michael Busch (Hits 1+: 64¢, No 37¢): Busch rounds out the group priced in the mid-60s.
- Jackson Chourio (Hits 2+: 34¢, No 68¢): note this is the tougher 2+ threshold rather than 1+, which explains the lower price relative to his teammates above.
Total Bases
Every name below is priced on the 2+ total bases threshold, so this list is a cleaner read on which bats project for extra-base contact tonight.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (Total Bases 2+: 47¢, No 54¢): the board's top total bases price, in line with his power numbers all season.
- Jackson Chourio (Total Bases 2+: 46¢, No 55¢): Chourio sits right behind PCA here, matching his recent extra-base surge.
- Seiya Suzuki (Total Bases 2+: 44¢, No 59¢): Suzuki's gap power keeps him near the top of this category as well.
- Brice Turang (Total Bases 2+: 43¢, No 59¢): Turang's doubles-heavy profile supports a price this high even without much home run power.
- Nico Hoerner (Total Bases 2+: 42¢, No 59¢): Hoerner's high hit rate feeds directly into this number.
- William Contreras (Total Bases 2+: 42¢, No 60¢): Contreras' pop keeps him grouped with Hoerner here.
- Alex Bregman (Total Bases 2+: 41¢, No 60¢): Bregman's contact rate gives him a real path to two bases even on a single extra-base hit.
- Jake Bauers (Total Bases 2+: 41¢, No 62¢): Bauers rounds out the middle tier of this board.
- Christian Yelich (Total Bases 2+: 40¢, No 63¢): Yelich's price here trails the top names but still reflects a real everyday bat.
- Garrett Mitchell (Total Bases 2+: 40¢, No 63¢): Mitchell's speed can turn one hit into extra bases on its own.
- Michael Busch (Total Bases 2+: 40¢, No 63¢): Busch closes out the list at the same price as Yelich and Mitchell.
Hits + Runs + RBIs
This combined category rewards hitters who contribute in multiple ways, and it's where Crow-Armstrong's Editor's Pick contract lives.
- Jackson Chourio (Hits + Runs + RBIs 2+: 58¢, No 45¢): the board's top price in this category, matching his hot stretch at the plate.
- Brice Turang (Hits + Runs + RBIs 2+: 57¢, No 46¢): Turang's speed at the top of the order gives him extra run-scoring paths beyond just hits.
- William Contreras (Hits + Runs + RBIs 2+: 57¢, No 47¢): Contreras' RBI production keeps him near the top here too.
- Nico Hoerner (Hits + Runs + RBIs 2+: 56¢, No 46¢): Hoerner's contact and speed give him a strong combined price.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (Hits + Runs + RBIs 2+: 56¢, No 45¢): covered above in the Editor's Pick, this is the exact contract we're trading tonight.
- Alex Bregman (Hits + Runs + RBIs 2+: 53¢, No 48¢): Bregman's all-around game supports a price right around a coin flip.
- Christian Yelich (Hits + Runs + RBIs 2+: 53¢, No 51¢): Yelich sits right at even money in this category.
- Jake Bauers (Hits + Runs + RBIs 2+: 52¢, No 52¢): Bauers' price is a true coin flip here.
- Seiya Suzuki (Hits + Runs + RBIs 2+: 52¢, No 49¢): Suzuki rounds out the upper-middle tier of this board.
- Garrett Mitchell (Hits + Runs + RBIs 2+: 51¢, No 52¢): Mitchell's price reflects his everyday role without star-level volume.
- Michael Busch (Hits + Runs + RBIs 2+: 50¢, No 53¢): Busch closes the list at exactly even money.
Strikeouts
Both starters get full strikeout ladders on this board rather than a single line, which lets you see exactly where the market's confidence tapers off.
- Clay Holmes (Strikeouts 3+: 79¢, 4+: 60¢, 5+: 40¢, 7+: 12¢, 8+: 7¢): Holmes has generated plenty of ground balls since joining Chicago, but his two starts since the trade show he can still miss enough bats to clear the lower thresholds comfortably.
- Kyle Harrison (Strikeouts 4+: 77¢, 5+: 62¢, 6+: 44¢, 7+: 26¢, 8+: 16¢): Harrison's swing-and-miss stuff prices out slightly higher than Holmes at each comparable rung, reflecting a more traditional power arm.
Outs Recorded
This is the exact category behind our Holmes Editor's Pick above, and the board's prices line up with how deep each starter has been going lately.
- Clay Holmes (Outs Recorded 16+: 50¢, No 51¢): Holmes' 50¢ price matches the workhorse role he's settled into for Chicago's stretch run.
- Kyle Harrison (Outs Recorded 16+: 44¢, No 61¢): Harrison sits a bit lower here, a fair reflection of a Brewers staff that's managed his innings carefully since he returned from a minor arm issue earlier this season.
Earned Runs Allowed
Both starters get two thresholds apiece here, giving a quick read on how much rope the board thinks each pitcher gets before trouble sets in.
- Clay Holmes (Earned Runs Allowed 2+: 74¢, 3+: 50¢): the board expects Holmes to give up at least a couple of earned runs, though his ground-ball approach helps cap the bigger multi-run innings.
- Kyle Harrison (Earned Runs Allowed 2+: 69¢, 3+: 46¢): Harrison's numbers here trail Holmes slightly at both thresholds, a sign the market gives him a bit more cushion against this Cubs lineup.
Brewers vs Cubs Price Analysis: What's Moving the Market
The money line sitting at a flat 50/50 split is the clearest signal on the board tonight, and it says the market sees this Brewers vs Cubs prediction as a true toss-up despite Milwaukee's better overall record.
Part of that comes down to the mound matchup: Holmes has looked like a legitimate rotation upgrade for Chicago since the trade, closing the gap that opened when the Cubs lost pitching depth earlier in the season.
On the offensive side, the best MLB player props today skew toward Chicago's top of the order, with Crow-Armstrong and Chourio both pricing as the top power and total-bases options on their respective teams, a fair reflection of two of the best young hitters in baseball squaring off in a pennant race.
If you're new to trading these contracts, the Action Network prediction markets hub is a good place to see how the rest of tonight's slate is pricing out before you place a position here.
Use Polymarket Promo Code 'ACTION' to Trade Brewers vs Cubs
Ready to take a position? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Don't forget to use promo code ACTIONwhen signing up to Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus!
Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and do not guarantee future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
Brewers vs Cubs Prediction: Final Thoughts
This is about as balanced a board as you'll find between two teams fighting for playoff positioning in the same division.
The money line, the run line, and the total all sit near a coin flip, which is why the real value tonight is in the best MLB player props today rather than the game-level markets.
Chourio, Crow-Armstrong, and Holmes stand out as the three clearest edges on the board, and each anchors one of tonight's Editor's Picks above.
Check out the full list of prediction market apps Action Network tracks if you want to compare this board against other platforms before you trade, and browse our other prediction market promo codes for more offers beyond Polymarket.
Polymarket Promo Code FAQs
What is the current Polymarket promo code?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a trading bonus for new users who sign up through Action Network.
Who is favored in the Brewers vs Cubs prediction?
Neither side holds an edge right now. Both the Brewers and Cubs are priced at 50¢ on the money line, making this one of the most evenly matched games on tonight's board.
What's the best player prop on the board tonight?
Pete Crow-Armstrong's home run and total bases contracts carry the highest prices in their categories, reflecting his 33-homer season, while Jackson Chourio's total bases number anchors our top Editor's Pick.
How do outs recorded contracts work for pitchers?
An outs recorded contract resolves Yes if the named pitcher records at least the listed number of outs during the game, regardless of how many runs he allows, making it a pure workload bet rather than a performance bet.
How does the Polymarket promo code work?
New users enter the code ACTION during sign-up, which applies the trading bonus automatically to a qualifying first deposit.
When does tonight's Brewers vs Cubs market resolve?
All contracts for this matchup resolve shortly after the final out of the game, once the official result is confirmed.
What's the Editor's Pick for tonight's game?
We're backing three separate positions tonight: Jackson Chourio's 2+ total bases contract, Pete Crow-Armstrong's 2+ hits, runs, plus RBIs contract, and Clay Holmes recording at least 16 outs.
How do Polymarket contracts pay out?
Each contract settles all-or-nothing. Winning shares pay $1 each, and losing positions lose the full stake, with no partial payouts in between.
