Bills vs. Jets Odds & Betting Predictions - September 12, 2023

Barstool at 2.5 +100, i chose to buy up to the 3 at -120

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Tailing my super sick friend @RoyalsProps

Tailing @TokenPicks for the 100000th time

Calvin Dook shows up to play ball tonight

Feels low, probably a donation

Boyd

Tailing Fivestar & tournament winner

@VegasRefund

Tailing the Mush Man

@nick_giffen

PB

@anthonydabbundo

MGM. Going with just receptions - check out my write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-player-props-bet-garrett-wilson-monday-night-football-bills-vs-jets-september-11

We’re going undaaaaaaaa! (Worried about this)

DK up 10 Early Win

Bet at DraftKings. 🦎 Time!

Yes I’m laying juice for this - it’s been a rock solid play for me over the last 2 seasons, with two key data points that I see carrying over to the new season. 1. the close/big game narrative - Allen was 10/16 on this line last season, incl 9/12 in games decided by 2 scores. Jets should keep this close (at home, kept both close last season with an inferior offense, and buffalo not materially better) 2. Pushed past this line in both games vs the jets last season, because they were able to generate a ton of pressure (8 of the 33 sacks the Bills allowed were vs the Jets). Allen’s scramble rate shoots up when he’s pressured, and I see the jets able to get that done again with Quinnen Williams. Plus, good history coming out strong in week one - 9+ attempts in each of his last 4 openers. Damien Harris likely to poach some goal line looks, but most of the upside here is with the scrambles. I have him at 8 attempts.

Quickslip to FD https://account.sportsbook.fanduel.com/sportsbook/addToBetslip?marketId[0]=42.380224189&selectionId[0]=50202&shareBetId=10023_-443033149

Bet No. 5 in our contest. Go sign up at favorites.actionnetwork.com

@ChrisRaybon

Bet365 4:44 Thursday.

Available at FanDuel. My model views the Bills as the better team -- but once you account for homefield, I have the Jets as slight favorites. Not only do the Jets add Aaron Rodgers, but they return the key contributors to a defense that ranked second in numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics last year despite poor turnover luck. The Jets' offensive line has been a big issue throughout training camp, but with Mekhi Becton pushing for a starting spot and Duane Brown potentially healthy by Week 1, it may wind up being an overblown narrative. My model still has the Bills third in its power rankings, so this is very much an endorsement of the Jets' outlook rather than indictment of the Bills'.