Jets vs Bills Odds, Pick: Expert Prediction for Total on Monday Night Football
Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Allen (left) and Aaron Rodgers (right).
Jets vs Bills Odds for Monday Night Football
We conclude NFL Week 1 by making a Jets vs. Bills pick on Monday Night Football, with the Jets vs. Bills odds showing Buffalo as a two-point road favorite.
This will be the second meeting between Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers in the past 11 months. In Week 8 of last season, the Bills notched a 27-17 win over Rodgers' Packers at home. The following week, the Bills traveled to MetLife Stadium and lost 20-17 to a Jets team starting Zach Wilson at quarterback. How will things play out with Rodgers now a member of the Jets?
Let's preview this AFC East rivalry game and make a Jets vs. Bills pick.
For all the hype Rodgers is getting, the Jets defense deserves even more. They allowed the fourth-fewest points per game (18.6) last season while ranking third in success rate (41.4%) and tied for sixth in Expected Points Added per play (-0.045), according to RBsDM.com.
In the two meetings last season, the Jets held the Bills to their two lowest yardage totals of the season (232, 317) and two of their three lowest point totals of the season (17, 20). Allen completed just 34-of-61 passes (55.7%) for 352 yards (5.8 yards per attempt), with one touchdown and two interceptions. He also got sacked eight times — 24% of his 16-game season total — for 39 yards, meaning he averaged just 4.5 net yards per attempt, which was not even in the same country code as his 7.2 mark against all other opponents.
Jets cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed held Stefon Diggs to an average of 4.0 catches for 65.0 yards with no touchdowns and Gabe Davis to 2.5 catches for 32.0 yards with no touchdowns.
First-round tight end Dalton Kincaid should help the Bills put more stress on the Jets this time around because they can't simply line up in base against 12 personnel or Kincaid will toast one of their linebackers in coverage. Still, the Jets are likely better equipped than most teams to handle the unique talents of Kincaid.
Among qualified cornerbacks at PFF, nickelback Michael Carter II graded in the 74th percentile in coverage and the 91st percentile in run defense. The ability of Gardner and Reed to hold up in single coverage on the outside also gives the Jets the option of double-teaming Kincaid if it comes to that.
Bet New York vs. Buffalo at FanDuel
The Bills offensive line is once again a concern, particularly on the interior against Quinnen Williams, who racked up three of his 12.0 sacks in the two meetings last season. Center Mitch Morse gave up a sack in both games, and the right guard spot will be manned by a rookie in 60th overall pick O'Cyrus Torrence.
Buffalo finished second in points allowed (17.9) and tied for sixth in EPA per play (-0.045) despite 28 combined missed games from No. 1 cornerback Tre'Davious White and starting safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer.
The Jets averaged only 16.0 points and 309.5 total yards versus Buffalo last season while starting Wilson in one of the contests and Mike White in the other. While Rodgers should improve upon that, he is still getting acclimated to new receivers, a new offensive line and a new backfield, so a slow start is certainly possible — if not likely.
Rodgers hasn't gotten much work in with his starting line due to tackles Duane Brown (shoulder) and Mekhi Becton (knee) dealing with injuries. In three of the past four Week 1s, Rodgers has failed to lead his offense to more than 10 points, posting 10 against the Bears in 2019, three against the Saints in 2021, and seven against the Vikings last season. For what it's worth, the Bills held Rodgers to 17 points and 5.9 net yards per attempt last season.
By the same token, running backs Dalvin Cook (signed in mid-August) and Breece Hall (didn't return to practice until mid-August coming off an ACL injury) haven't gotten much work running behind the starting line. The Jets are coming off a season in which they finished 32nd in Adjusted Line Yards (3.81), a Football Outsiders metric that isolates the offensive line's contribution to a team's rushing production.
Jets vs. Bills
Betting Picks & Predictions
The total opened in the neighborhood of 47-48 at most books and has since dropped to 45.5, which is still a bit high given the quality of both defenses and Rodgers' lack of experience with his new team.
Per our Action Labs data, when the total drops more than a point in primetime, the under is 82-48 (63.1%) since 2005, covering by 2.5 points per game.
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