Broncos vs. Saints Odds & Betting Predictions - October 18, 2024
Broncos at Saints
12:15 am • Amazon Prime VideoBroncos at Saints Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Broncos 8-5 | +3.5 | -2.5-114 | o37-112 | -148 |
Saints 5-8 | u42.5 | +2.5-106 | u37-108 | +124 |
Friday 12:15 a.m.
October 18, 2024Caesars SuperdomeNew Orleans
Broncos vs. Saints Expert Picks
Shady Biev
56d ago
Last 30d: 156-199-5 (-24.9u)
C.Wilson u17.5 Rec Yds (Live)-125
2u
Have to make up for my fuck up earlier. Ignore this.
Bet What Happens Live!
56d ago
Last 30d: 18-32-0 (+0.3u)
C.Sutton Anytime TD Scorer Yes (Live)+900
0.25u
M.Tipton o17.5 Rec Yds (Live)-114
0.88u
A.Kamara o26.5 Rec Yds (Live)-118
1u
J.McLaughlin o3.5 Rush Yds (Live)-115
0.87u
B.Nix u60.5 Rush Yds (Live)-110
1u
D.Vele Anytime TD Scorer Yes (Live)+1300
0.1u
M.Mims Anytime TD Scorer Yes (Live)+3000
0.1u
B.Nix o0.5 Int (Live)+310
0.5u
S.Rattler o31.5 Pass Att (Live)-120
0.83u
S.Rattler o209.5 Pass Yds (Live)-114
1u
Shady Biev
56d ago
Last 30d: 156-199-5 (-24.9u)
NO +12.5 (Live)+102
2u
Bet What Happens Live!
56d ago
Last 30d: 18-32-0 (+0.3u)
T.Franklin o56.5 Rec Yds (Live)-110
1u
C.Sutton o18.5 Rec Yds (Live)-110
1u
J.Williams o21.5 Rec Yds (Live)-115
0.87u
Gamblers Dream
56d ago
Last 30d: 22-40-1 (-23.7u)
A.Kamara Anytime TD Scorer Yes (Live)+160
1u
He’s due especially with a rookie QB behind canter.
Boomer Betz
56d ago
Last 30d: 156-152-10 (+37.1u)
B.Means u37.5 Rec Yds-108
1.39u
Bob
Kyle Just Bets
56d ago
Last 30d: 25-17-1 (+7.1u)
J.Williams o39.5 Rec Yds+400
0.1u
J.Williams o24.5 Rec Yds+165
0.25u
Matt Moore
56d ago
Last 30d: 95-117-2 (+0.2u)
Under 37-110
0.55u
JB Bets
56d ago
Last 30d: 41-17-0 (+17.5u)
D.Vele o31.5 Rec Yds-110
1u
J.Johnson 25+ Receiving Yards Yes-140
1u
DEN -135
0.74u
Sir Lockselot
56d ago
Last 30d: 44-60-0 (+24.3u)
J.Williams Anytime TD Scorer Yes+160
3.2u
Proptology _
56d ago
Last 30d: 6-13-0 (-10.5u)
B.Nix u195 Pass Yds-105
1u
🔬 Why is this line 195 when Nix has hit over 200 in 4 of the last 5 games? Because the only qb worse than him in yards per drop back Vs cover 2 is Bryce young & the saints run cover 2 at one of the highest rates in the league
🔬On a short week vs a saints defense missing Pete Warner at linebacker , the saints have allowed 5.4 yards per rush attempt- the broncos shouldn’t have to pass as much as usual whether it be because their up due to all the saints injuries or because they’re just running the ball more efficiently than usual vs this defense
🔬Broncos are also missing a center and right tackle to IR which could allow more pressure or force nix to run
🔬Lattimores shadow coverage of Courtland Sutton helps our cause here as well
Prop Hunter
56d ago
Last 30d: 29-28-0 (+7.5u)
T.Franklin o2.5 Recs+100
1.2u
A.Estime Anytime TD Scorer Yes+665
0.25u
J.Johnson Anytime TD Scorer Yes+435
0.25u
B.Nix o25.5 Rush Yds-120
1u
C.Sutton Anytime TD Scorer Yes+220
0.5u
B.Means Anytime TD Scorer Yes+400
0.25u
YBK Picks.com
56d ago
Last 30d: 40-41-2 (-10.0u)
DEN -2.5-105
1.9u
Tanner McGrath
56d ago
Last 30d: 121-93-5 (+18.4u)
Under 37.5-115
1.15u
The Propfessor
56d ago
Last 30d: 46-44-0 (-3.8u)
A.Kamara o4.5 Recs-128
1u
Scott Rickenbach
56d ago
Last 30d: 98-61-0 (+24.7u)
DEN -142
0.7u
The Degenerates
56d ago
Last 30d: 92-81-5 (+5.3u)
B.Nix o193.5 Pass Yds-114
1.14u
Green Dot Daily
56d ago
Last 30d: 1-0-0 (+0.6u)
T.Franklin o21.5 Rec Yds-120
0.83u
@charliedisturco TNF (Denver @ NO) Wheel Pick
PvB Bets
56d ago
Last 30d: 23-20-1 (+0.7u)
S.Rattler u22.5 Rush Yds-120
1u
S. Rattler ⬇️ 22.5 Rushing Yards (-120 @ MGM)(+100 w/ 20% Boost)
THE BLITZ 📽️: 17.85 RushY
I know, he's coming off a 4 for 27 rushing day vs Tampa Bay. I'm expecting that line this week vs a solid DEN defensive front. Let's start with Rattler's profile. Here are his last 2 seasons as a rusher in college:
2023: 12 games, 73 rush attempts for 46 yards (3.8 yards per game)
2022: 13 games, 97 RA's for 104 yards (8 yards per game)
So he wasn't a runner. 40 time? 4.95, which is just below average for a QB. So, he's not particularly fast. I went back and watch his 4 rushing attempts. None were designed and here's what I noticed about each:
Rush 1: fumbled snap, -2 yards
Rush 2: 16-yards rush - missed tackle or would have been a couple yards
Rush 3: 5-yard rush - defensive blitz, rolls right and just takes what they give him
Rush 4: 6-yard rush - rolls left and makes the LB miss or would have just been a 1-2 yard gain.
Nothing impressive overall. We likely don't see this line up here if he doesn't get that missed tackle on run 2. Pressure on these roll outs have created most of these opportunities for Rattler. TB blitzes at the 8th highest rate (29.5%). NO only blitzes 21.2% of the time, the 8th lowest rate. I don't think we are going to see Ratler run like he did in week 1 and if he does, I don't think he'll see the same type of success.
Green Dot Daily
56d ago
Last 30d: 1-0-0 (+0.6u)
Over 17.5 (2H)-110
0.91u
@nick_giffen
S.Rattler u18.5 Pass Comp-102
1u
@The_Oddsmaker
J.Johnson o2.5 Recs-140
0.71u
Via Brian Matthews
M.Tipton o20.5 Rec Yds-110
0.45u
@charliedisturco
B.Nix Anytime TD Scorer Yes+255
0.5u
Via Brian Matthews & @GDAWG5000
T.Franklin Anytime TD Scorer Yes+600
0.25u
@charliedisturco
Under 37.5-120
1u
@The_Oddsmaker
Chase Holden
56d ago
Last 30d: 16-17-0 (+2.4u)
New Orleans D Anytime TD Scorer Yes+800
0.75u
Moneyline Hacks
56d ago
Last 30d: 54-54-0 (-5.0u)
DEN -2.5-116
0.86u
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Simon Hunter
56d ago
Last 30d: 21-23-2 (-3.9u)
DEN -2.5-118
0.85u
Prop Bet Guy
56d ago
Last 30d: 69-52-0 (+10.4u)
B.Means u16.5 Longest Reception-110
1u
Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-player-prop-pick-tonight-for-bub-means
MJC Locks
56d ago
Last 30d: 31-27-0 (+13.7u)
D.Vele o15.5 Longest Reception-110
0.68u
Nick Giffen
56d ago
Last 30d: 48-85-0 (+15.0u)
Over 17.5 (2H)-110
1u
@GreenDotDaily
Gilles Gallant
56d ago
Last 30d: 30-74-1 (-7.1u)
S.Rattler u18.5 Pass Comp-102
0.51u
#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker & @nick_giffen
Sean Koerner
56d ago
Last 30d: 23-24-0 (-5.8u)
S.Rattler u18.5 Pass Comp-102
1.02u
Nick Giffen
56d ago
Last 30d: 48-85-0 (+15.0u)
S.Rattler u18.5 Pass Comp-102
1.02u
On this with @The_Oddsmaker
Boomer Betz
56d ago
Last 30d: 156-152-10 (+37.1u)
NO +135
1u
💰🦡 Jake
56d ago
Last 30d: 77-90-1 (-25.8u)
DEN -2.5-115
1.5u
S.Rattler o21.5 Rush Yds-120
1u
Babs .
56d ago
Last 30d: 94-75-3 (+14.6u)
J.McLaughlin u19.5 Rush Yds-110
1u
Tailing sharp
Sean Koerner
56d ago
Last 30d: 23-24-0 (-5.8u)
Under 37.5-117
1.17u
Grant Neiffer
56d ago
Last 30d: 49-42-4 (+3.5u)
B.Nix u31.5 Pass Att-120
1u
Shady Biev
56d ago
Last 30d: 156-199-5 (-24.9u)
C.Wilson o59.5 Rec Yds+830
0.25u
Grant Neiffer
56d ago
Last 30d: 49-42-4 (+3.5u)
B.Means Anytime TD Scorer Yes+400
0.5u
A.Kamara Anytime TD Scorer Yes+105
1u
C.Sutton Anytime TD Scorer Yes+260
1u
Charlie Wright
56d ago
Last 30d: 13-20-0 (-5.2u)
DEN -145
1u
Tough spot for New Orleans. They're starting a rookie quarterback who will be without his top two receivers (Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed) and another weapon in Taysom Hill. Rattler put up some points against a vulnerable pass defense in Week 6, but this matchup vs. Denver will be much tougher, even without Patrick Surtain.
On the defensive side, the Saints have to be gassed. They were on the field for 80 plays in Week 5 against Kansas City on Monday Night Football. On a short week, they were out there for 72 plays vs. Tampa Bay in Week 6. Now they'll once again be on short rest facing the Broncos.
Denver had their 3-game winning streak halted in Week 6, but this is a great spot to get back on track. It's also a revenge game for head coach Sean Payton, if you're into that sort of thing.
Babs .
56d ago
Last 30d: 94-75-3 (+14.6u)
F.Moreau o9.5 Rec Yds-121
1.1u
+EV tool. Probably too bullish on it
Ray Monohan
56d ago
Last 30d: 19-12-0 (+3.9u)
DEN -3-105
0.71u
Ryan Sura
56d ago
Last 30d: 89-105-5 (-20.2u)
B.Means o31.5 Rec Yds-110
1u
Lines at Lunch
56d ago
Last 30d: 126-96-5 (+17.3u)
B.Means o31.5 Rec Yds-110
1u
Sura
Shady Biev
56d ago
Last 30d: 156-199-5 (-24.9u)
C.Wilson o17.5 Rec Yds+830
2.08u
Fucked this up clearly.
C.Wilson Anytime TD Scorer Yes+650
3.25u
C.Wilson o24.5 Rec Yds+160
2.4u
C.Wilson o39.5 Rec Yds+425
3.19u
C.Wilson o49.5 Rec Yds+750
3.75u
C.Wilson o16.5 Rec Yds-115
2.39u
A.Kamara o4.5 Recs-120
1.5u
Lines at Lunch
56d ago
Last 30d: 126-96-5 (+17.3u)
B.Nix o194.5 Pass Yds-118
1.18u
Sandy
Sandy Plashkes
56d ago
Last 30d: 112-113-4 (+6.2u)
B.Nix o194.5 Pass Yds-118
1.18u
Top Shelf Action 🥃
56d ago
Last 30d: 283-249-11 (+18.1u)
B.Nix o29.5 Pass Att-130
1u
C.Sutton o45.5 Rec Yds-113
1u
Shady Biev
56d ago
Last 30d: 156-199-5 (-24.9u)
J.Williams Anytime TD Scorer Yes+145
2.18u
J.Williams First Touchdown Scorer Yes+700
3.5u
Kyle Just Bets
57d ago
Last 30d: 25-17-1 (+7.1u)
J.Williams o17.5 Rec Yds-115
0.87u
The Propfessor
57d ago
Last 30d: 46-44-0 (-3.8u)
B.Means o31.5 Rec Yds-113
1u
No Olave or Shaheed, someone has to step up in this WR room for the Saints.
Showed a solid rapport with Rattler last week in his first start. 7 first read targets from Rattler last week (26.9% 1st read share). He ran 34 routes last week with Olave going down, only behind Shaheed. With Shaheed now out as well, would not be surprised to see Means lead the team in routes this week.
Broncos blitz at the highest rate in the NFL so far this season. Means 24% TPRR last week vs the blitz (highest among Saints WRs). Like the fact the he is Rattler’s first read and if you look at his route tree, it’s a lot of out routes which is nice for getting the ball out quick.
Pat Surtain is OUT, this helps Means as he’ll be lining up mostly on the outside.
RocketPlays
57d ago
Last 30d: 66-97-1 (+24.6u)
A.Kamara 7+ Receptions Yes+310
0.5u
A.Kamara 9+ Receptions Yes+1000
0.25u
A.Kamara 10+ Receptions Yes+1600
0.25u
A.Kamara o4.5 Recs-125
1u
Gilles Gallant
57d ago
Last 30d: 30-74-1 (-7.1u)
D.Vele Anytime TD Scorer Yes+500
0.5u
Kyle Murray
57d ago
Last 30d: 60-76-2 (-10.5u)
Under 37.5-115
1.15u
J.Williams u47.5 Rush Yds-120
1.2u
D.Vele o30.5 Rec Yds-113
1.13u
Brandon Anderson
57d ago
Last 30d: 35-67-0 (-3.3u)
Under 30.5+225
0.5u
MINESHAFT SZN
Milly Props
57d ago
Last 30d: 7-5-1 (+1.6u)
T.Franklin o12.5 Longest Reception-109
0.92u
Covered in the last two games with catches of 29 and 20 yards. Reynolds is still out (like last game) and Franklin saw a career-high in routes and snap share as a result.
His AVG ADOT sits at 14.9, which is great to see for a 12.5 line and that number has climbed over the weeks
- Week 6: 16.0 ADOT
- Week 5: 35.0 ADOT
- Week 4: 15.0 ADOT
- Week 3: 9.4 ADOT
Saints play man coverage at a top 10 rate in the league - Franklin leads all NO pass-catchers (minimum 10 targets) in YPRR vs. man coverage. He also AVG a 20.2 ADOT on 5 targets vs. man coverage.
He’ll have the easier MU on the outside vs. Adebo, as Lattimore will be MU with Sutton. Game is also in a dome, so weather won’t be a factor
Gilles Gallant
57d ago
Last 30d: 30-74-1 (-7.1u)
B.Nix Anytime TD Scorer Yes+255
0.8u
B.Nix 2+ TDs Yes+2500
0.2u
Grant Neiffer
58d ago
Last 30d: 49-42-4 (+3.5u)
A.Kamara u72.5 Rush Yds-115
1u
J.Williams u46.5 Rush Yds-120
1.2u
Markus Markets
58d ago
Last 30d: 80-98-3 (+23.0u)
T.Franklin o39.5 Rec Yds+345
0.86u
Fliff
T.Franklin o29.5 Rec Yds+195
0.49u
Fliff
T.Franklin o17.5 Rec Yds-110
0.91u
Bet365
Invisible Insider
58d ago
Last 30d: 5-6-1 (-0.9u)
DEN -125
0.4u
Upcoming free play!
Green Dot Daily
58d ago
Last 30d: 1-0-0 (+0.6u)
D.Vele o30.5 Rec Yds-120
1u
Via Brian Matthews
CeeJ Picks
58d ago
Last 30d: 54-45-0 (+45.5u)
A.Kamara o32.5 Rec Yds-120
1.2u
Kamara has been a massive piece of this Saints offense and with rookie Spencer Rattler under center, I expect the rookie to lean on him. The Broncos have allowed the 7th most targets to running backs this season and has been an area of weakness. Kamara has hit this line in 4/6 games this season and hit targets are way up. Kamara has been targeted 9,8, and 8 times the last 3 weeks with 7,6, and 5 receptions. He has also destroyed man coverage, which will benefit him here against a Broncos team that runs man at the 2nd highest rate in the NFL. He has been targeted 22% against man coverage, second most on the team.
Notable RB performances vs DEN:
Charbonnet 2 rec 29 yards
Vidal 2 rec 40 yards
Warren 2 rec 19 yards
Mattison 2 rec 23 yards
White 5 rec 18 yards
Kamara is a better receiving back than all of these running backs and with Rattler making his 2nd career start, he should be looking to Kamara for easy screen and dump offs.
Prop Bet Guy
59d ago
Last 30d: 69-52-0 (+10.4u)
D.Vele o23.5 Rec Yds-115
1.15u
8 and 6 targets in the two games he’s played - clearing this line easily in both games. Hard to see the Broncos taking him off the field given his rapport with Nix - and with no Reynolds, Vele’s route participation was at 76% last week.
Running most of his routes out of the slot (literally 111 of 117 of his yards are out of the slot), he gets the ideal matchup vs the Saints. Slot receivers have destroyed them - Godwin (109 of his 125 yards), Juju (63 of his 130), Tolbert (66 of his 82), and even Thielen with Bryce Young (35 of his 49). Goedert destroyed them from the slot as well - only the Falcons didn’t capitalize on the matchup.
Payton alluded to wanting to see more of his rookie playmakers (Vele, Franklin and Estime). I’m confident the role is there for him.
Top Shelf Action 🥃
59d ago
Last 30d: 283-249-11 (+18.1u)
A.Kamara Anytime TD Scorer Yes+100
1u
2.07% ev and projection to the over
Chad Millman
59d ago
Last 30d: 18-17-1 (+1.1u)
Under 37.5-115
0.5u
Hitting the @wheatonbrando hot read
Brandon Anderson
60d ago
Last 30d: 35-67-0 (-3.3u)
Under 37.5-110
1.5u
Week 7 Hot Read 🔥
PRO Insights
Broncos
DEN Insights
- Featured InsightThe Broncos have allowed 1.4 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season -- T-4th-best in NFL; Saints RBs have averaged 1.3 yards after contact per carry this season -- T-3rd-worst in NFL.
TRY FOR FREE
Saints
NO Insights
- Featured InsightThe Saints have allowed their opponents to be successful on 40.0% of plays with a base rush this season -- T-10th-best in NFL; the Broncos have been successful on 36.0% of plays they have run against a base rush this season -- T-4th-worst in NFL.
TRY FOR FREE
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Broncos vs. Saints Props
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Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Broncos vs. Saints Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Saints are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Saints are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Saints are 2-4 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Saints' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Saints' 7 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
Over/Under History
Last 5 Matchups
Saints vs. Broncos Injury Updates
Saints Injuries
- Tanoh KpassagnonDE
Kpassagnon is out with achilles
Out
- Taysom HillTE
Hill is out with knee
Out
- J.T. GrayDB
Gray is questionable with back
Questionable
- Will HarrisCB
Harris is questionable with hamstring
Questionable
- Shane LemieuxG
Lemieux is questionable with knee
Questionable
- Chris OlaveWR
Olave is out with concussion
Out
- John RidgewayDT
Ridgeway is questionable with oblique
Questionable
- Nephi SewellLB
Sewell is questionable with knee
Questionable
- Rashid ShaheedWR
Shaheed is out with knee
Out
- Nick SaldiveriOL
Saldiveri is out with knee
Out
- Kool-Aid McKinstryDB
McKinstry is questionable with hamstring
Questionable
- Bub MeansWR
Means is out with ankle
Out
- Rico PaytonCB
Payton is questionable with back
Questionable
Broncos Injuries
- Luke WattenbergC
Wattenberg is questionable with ankle
Questionable
- Delarrin Turner-YellS
Turner-Yell is out with knee
Out
- Riley MossCB
Moss is out with knee
Out
- Drew SandersLB
Sanders is out with achilles
Out
Team Stats
Broncos vs. Saints Odds Comparison
Could not load odds
Broncos at Saints Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
---|---|---|
Broncos 8-5 | o19.5-118 | u19.5-102 |
Saints 5-8 | o17.5+102 | u17.5-122 |