Buccaneers vs. Falcons Odds & Betting Predictions - October 4, 2024
Buccaneers at Falcons
12:15 am • Amazon Prime VideoBuccaneers at Falcons Odds
Spread, Total, Moneyline
MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Buccaneers 3-2 | +3 | +2.5-109 | o44-111 | +116 |
Falcons 3-2 | u44.5 | -2.5-111 | u44-108 | -136 |
Friday 12:15 a.m.
October 04, 2024Mercedes-Benz StadiumAtlanta
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Expert Picks
JBBets
2d ago
Last 30d: 63-67-0 (-5.8u)
B.Mayfield o9.5 Rush Yds (Live)-112
0.89u
twitter play cash🔥✅
Bet What Happens Live!
2d ago
Last 30d: 57-79-0 (+8.2u)
R.White u87.5 Rush Yds (Live)-113
0.88u
D.London o76.5 Rec Yds (Live)-113
0.88u
M.Evans o77.5 Rec Yds (Live)-115
1u
S.Shepard o7.5 Rec Yds (Live)-115
1u
B.Robinson o25.5 Rec Yds (Live)-110
1u
T.Allgeier o19.5 Rush Yds (Live)-120
1u
T.Allgeier Anytime TD Scorer Yes (Live)+650
0.5u
K.Cousins o33.5 Pass Comp (Live)-146
0.68u
B.Mayfield o29.5 Pass Att (Live)-110
1u
Mjaybrod
2d ago
Last 30d: 102-94-0 (+4.7u)
ATL +3.5 (Live)-110
0.91u
Rise up
Mitchell Biever
2d ago
Last 30d: 28-30-0 (-3.3u)
ATL +105 (Live)
2.1u
Mjaybrod
2d ago
Last 30d: 102-94-0 (+4.7u)
Under 64.5 (Live)-110
1u
First half under was a good look
💰🦡 Jake
2d ago
Last 30d: 74-83-1 (-12.8u)
Under 62.5 (Live)-110
1.65u
PSG
2d ago
Last 30d: 7-25-0 (-23.8u)
TB -132 (Live)
1u
Joe Dellera
2d ago
Last 30d: 40-38-2 (+9.2u)
T.Allgeier o42.5 Rush + Rec Yds (Live)-115
1u
Dale Tanhardt
2d ago
Last 30d: 14-55-1 (+26.5u)
C.Otton Anytime TD Scorer Yes+380
0.8u
CeeJ Picks
2d ago
Last 30d: 39-69-0 (+9.3u)
B.Robinson o24.5 Rec Yds-110
1.1u
Bijan has been a big part of the Falcons offense through 4 weeks and they love to use him in the passing game. However, this pick is more about the matchup than anything. Through 4 weeks the Buccaneers are allowing the 7th highest target rates to opposing RBs.
RBs vs TB:
Ekeler: 4 red 52 receiving yards
Robinson Jr.: 3 rec 49 receiving yards
Montgomery: 5 rec 35 receiving yards
Gibbs: 7 rec 22 receiving yards
Williams: 4 rec 29 receiving yards
Barkley: 2 rec 32 receiving yards
Bijan has been over this line in 3/4 games this season and in 13/21 NFL games he has played in. He has also hit in 8/11 games at home in his career and 1/2 in primetime with his only miss vs KC with 21 yards.
Mike Randle
2d ago
Last 30d: 17-17-0 (+7.5u)
Under 7.5 (1Q)-115
1u
JBBets
2d ago
Last 30d: 63-67-0 (-5.8u)
B.Robinson First Touchdown Scorer Yes+475
0.5u
C.Godwin First Touchdown Scorer Yes+1000
0.5u
Prop Hunter
2d ago
Last 30d: 57-55-1 (+4.1u)
D.London o5.5 Recs-115
1u
K.Pitts Anytime TD Scorer Yes+240
0.5u
K.Cousins o1.5 Pass TDs-115
1u
B.Irving Anytime TD Scorer Yes+155
0.5u
D.London Anytime TD Scorer Yes+135
0.68u
Sir Lockselot
2d ago
Last 30d: 37-100-0 (-39.9u)
K.Pitts Anytime TD Scorer Yes+310
1u
Built using BetAlytics TD Dashboard.
🔑 Kyle Pitts ATD +310 (FanDuel) 1u
Value: B Grade (+3.52% Edge)
*32.93% Win Probability
Join 👉🔗 https://BetAlytics.com
Promo code: LOCKSELOT for 25% off
Vegas Refund
2d ago
Last 30d: 34-44-0 (-14.4u)
ATL -2.5-110
1u
Dale Tanhardt
2d ago
Last 30d: 14-55-1 (+26.5u)
K.Pitts Anytime TD Scorer Yes+310
1.2u
K.Pitts 2+ TDs Yes+2800
0.2u
Charlie DiSturco
2d ago
Last 30d: 65-115-0 (+0.7u)
T.Allgeier o3.5 Rec Yds-110
0.5u
K.Pitts Anytime TD Scorer Yes+310
0.15u
Collin Whitchurch
2d ago
Last 30d: 150-139-2 (+2.9u)
D.London Anytime TD Scorer Yes+225
0.67u
Boost
RocketPlays
2d ago
Last 30d: 23-27-0 (+5.5u)
D.Mooney o20.5 Longest Reception-106
1u
Top Shelf Action 🥃
2d ago
Last 30d: 177-156-6 (+14.8u)
TB +120
1u
#ProSystem
Early season divisional dogs
Overall: 106-96-1,52% (ROI:29%)
Season:1-5-0,17% (ROI:-63%)
Chris Gimino
2d ago
Last 30d: 22-19-1 (+1.4u)
ATL -2.5-110
0.91u
I like the matchup of the Atlanta offense against this Tampa Bay defense. Think we’ll see a strong performance and on the flip side see the Falcons defense cause problems for Tampa Bay, especially in the run game. They’ve seen four extremely tough opponents so far against the rush, and I believe there isn’t a bigger contrast possible between those running games and TB. I think they get the W by a field goal minimum.
Kyle Murray
2d ago
Last 30d: 88-84-2 (-1.6u)
Under 43.5-110
1.1u
Matthew Vincenzi
2d ago
Last 30d: 25-23-0 (+0.3u)
ATL -135
1u
Kyle Just Bets
2d ago
Last 30d: 21-30-0 (-9.9u)
B.Robinson o25.5 Rec Yds-135
1u
R.White u9.5 Rush Att-135
1u
Boomer Betz
2d ago
Last 30d: 136-107-1 (+48.4u)
D.London o21.5 Longest Reception-120
0.83u
Oddsjam
Collin Whitchurch
2d ago
Last 30d: 150-139-2 (+2.9u)
T.Allgeier o33.5 Rush Yds-130
0.65u
B.Irving o42.5 Rush Yds-117
0.5u
R.White u9.5 Rush Att-110
1.1u
K.Cousins o0.5 Int-110
0.5u
Capper Central
2d ago
Last 30d: 8-8-0 (-0.8u)
ATL -125 (1H)
$1250.00
Looks like all the touts are on the falcons here tonight, but the public’s on the Bucs. Bucs just beat the breaks off the eagles while the falcons barely edged out the saints at home. The defense slowed down that saints offense and I expect they’ll do the same again at home to the Bucs. Taking 1H as one of my fade the public systems is 68% when fading a Primetime public dog on the road. Also - the whole fade Kirk in prime time is only when he’s a dog. He’s 8-3 as a favorite.
Greg Matherne
2d ago
Last 30d: 40-46-1 (+3.6u)
TB +2.5-110
0.55u
Simon Hunter
2d ago
Last 30d: 22-21-3 (-1.1u)
ATL -2.5-109
0.46u
Green Dot Daily
2d ago
Last 30d: 76-81-2 (+18.8u)
Under 44-109
1u
@The_Oddsmaker
R.White u9.5 Rush Att-110
1u
@The_Oddsmaker
R.McCloud o37.5 Rush + Rec Yds-115
0.87u
@charliedisturco 4-down territory
D.London o5.5 Recs+105
0.79u
Brian Matthews 4-Down Territory
B.Irving Anytime TD Scorer Yes+175
0.5u
@charliedisturco 4-down territory
Y.Diaby o0.25 Sacks+210
0.25u
Brian Matthews 4-down territory
K.Cousins o0.5 Int-110
0.91u
@nick_giffen
Sir Lockselot
2d ago
Last 30d: 37-100-0 (-39.9u)
R.White o3.5 Recs+130
2u
🔑 Rachaad White o3.5 receptions +130 (FanDuel) 2u
System play. He’s hit the over in 2/4 games. Value: B Grade (+3.99% Edge). 50.5% Win Probability. He is the clear pass catching back for TB and I expect them to throw a lot this game. Great value here
Andrew A
2d ago
Last 30d: 14-7-2 (+0.7u)
TB +115
2u
Nick Giffen
2d ago
Last 30d: 49-82-1 (+25.0u)
B.Robinson u3.5 Recs+120
1.2u
Sandy Plashkes
2d ago
Last 30d: 112-99-4 (+16.6u)
B.Robinson u3.5 Recs+122
1.22u
Tailing @wwiseguys
Charlie DiSturco
2d ago
Last 30d: 65-115-0 (+0.7u)
Y.Diaby o0.25 Sacks+200
0.5u
@The_Oddsmaker
R.White u9.5 Rush Att-110
0.55u
@The_Oddsmaker
R.McCloud o37.5 Rush + Rec Yds-115
0.5u
Gilles Gallant
2d ago
Last 30d: 28-71-0 (-3.0u)
R.White u9.5 Rush Att-110
0.55u
#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker
Sean Koerner
2d ago
Last 30d: 30-22-0 (+4.9u)
R.White u9.5 Rush Att-110
1.1u
Giving out on GDD right now
Gilles Gallant
2d ago
Last 30d: 28-71-0 (-3.0u)
K.Cousins o0.5 Int-108
0.5u
#Tailing @nick_giffen
Nick Giffen
2d ago
Last 30d: 49-82-1 (+25.0u)
K.Cousins o0.5 Int-108
1u
@GreenDotDaily
Boomer Betz
2d ago
Last 30d: 136-107-1 (+48.4u)
ATL -2-110
1.82u
Bq
ATL -2-110
2.73u
Bq
💰🦡 Jake
2d ago
Last 30d: 74-83-1 (-12.8u)
B.Mayfield o0.5 Int-115
1.15u
T.Allgeier o34.5 Rush Yds-115
1.15u
Under 43.5-110
1.65u
VegasIsMyBitch
2d ago
Last 30d: 8-17-1 (-9.6u)
Under 43.5-110
1u
Sharpest Market Action Play for the Day 🔪📊
Game projected at 41 📉
Under for Divisional Teams on TNF has been 3-0 this season:
⬇️BUF 31 - MIA 10
⬇️NE 3 - NYJ 24
⬇️DAl 20 - NYG 15
This is because both teams are more familiar playing each other combined with prime time games historically favouring the under
Last year both games between these two teams have went under the total
⚙️17 High Volume Under-Systems
Overall: 284-222-3,56% (ROI:8%)
Season:11-4-0,73% (ROI:40%)⭐️
Overall: 257-186-5,58% (ROI:11%)
Season:16-11-1,59% (ROI:13%)⭐️
Overall: 259-200-5,56% (ROI:8%)
Season:1-2-0,33% (ROI:-36%)
Overall: 370-301-8,55% (ROI:6%)
Season:13-13-1,50% (ROI:-4%)
Overall: 316-254-5,55% (ROI:7%)
Season:6-10-0,38% (ROI:-29%)
Overall: 293-221-4,57% (ROI:9%)
Season:17-16-1,52% (ROI:-2%)
Overall: 327-258-4,56% (ROI:7%)
Season:9-7-0,56% (ROI:8%)
Overall: 269-216-5,55% (ROI:7%)
Season:11-11-0,50% (ROI:-5%)
Overall: 354-266-6,57% (ROI:10%)
Season:14-12-1,54% (ROI:3%)
Overall: 314-251-2,56% (ROI:7%)
Season:8-5-0,62% (ROI:18%)
Overall: 309-247-4,56% (ROI:7%)
Season:5-6-0,45% (ROI:-13%)
Overall: 400-328-8,55% (ROI:6%)
Season:10-12-0,45% (ROI:-13%)
Overall: 370-295-5,56% (ROI:7%)
Season:11-8-1,58% (ROI:10%)
Overall: 313-246-5,56% (ROI:8%)
Season:12-8-0,60% (ROI:15%)
Overall: 494-406-8,55% (ROI:6%)
Season:20-22-1,48% (ROI:-9%)
Overall: 165-114-3,59% (ROI:14%)
Season:8-7-0,53% (ROI:3%)
Overall: 475-377-6,56% (ROI:7%)
Season:20-18-1,53% (ROI:1%)
If you'd like to see more of these detailed game breakdowns lemme know by dropping a ❤️
Join our 25,000+ Movement! 🚀
https://discord.gg/house-of-degens
All slips and updates are posted on X 🐥
https://x.com/VegasIsMyBitchh
Mjaybrod
2d ago
Last 30d: 102-94-0 (+4.7u)
B.Robinson u30.5 Rec Yds-110
0.91u
All ground my boy
Invisible Insider
2d ago
Last 30d: 5-2-0 (+2.0u)
Under 43.5-108
0.5u
FREE PLAY FOR TODAY. Got this line at 44, unfortunately action doesn’t offer any other lines right now. Still like 43.5!
Kyle Just Bets
2d ago
Last 30d: 21-30-0 (-9.9u)
M.Evans o4.5 Recs+100
1u
M.Evans 6+ Receptions Yes+190
0.5u
M.Evans 8+ Receptions Yes+700
0.2u
M.Evans 10+ Receptions Yes+2000
0.1u
Firefighter Bets
2d ago
Last 30d: 100-111-0 (-21.8u)
R.McCloud o33.5 Rec Yds-115
0.87u
C.Otton o27.5 Rec Yds-115
0.87u
C.Otton o3.5 Recs+135
1u
Grant Neiffer
2d ago
Last 30d: 23-40-0 (-10.3u)
S.Shepard o19.5 Rec Yds-110
1.1u
Gilles Gallant
2d ago
Last 30d: 28-71-0 (-3.0u)
D.London Anytime TD Scorer Yes+175
1.75u
Sandy Plashkes
2d ago
Last 30d: 112-99-4 (+16.6u)
B.Irving Anytime TD Scorer Yes+150
1u
Tailing @shadybiev
Mjaybrod
2d ago
Last 30d: 102-94-0 (+4.7u)
B.Robinson o14.5 Rush Att-105
1u
Bijan with some strawberries and bananas
B.Robinson o14.5 Longest Rush-120
0.83u
Buying low on Bijan
Picks Office
2d ago
Last 30d: 43-62-2 (-22.4u)
TB +2-110
1u
Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice
The Buccaneers (3-1) have shown grit in 2024, led by Baker Mayfield's strong play (70.5% completion, 984 yards, 8:2 TD-INT) and chemistry with Chris Godwin (322 yards, 3 TDs). Defensively, they allow 19.5 PPG but struggle against the run. The Falcons, despite adding Kirk Cousins, are inconsistent offensively (22nd in PPG, 18.8) with Cousins throwing 4 TDs and 4 INTs. Tampa's balanced attack gives them the edge.
Under 43.5-105
1u
Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice
Baker Mayfield's conservative play under OC Liam Coen, paired with Tampa Bay's struggling run game (24th in DVOA), limits explosive plays. Mayfield’s 2.44s release and 5.6 air yards per attempt face a tough Falcons defense, strong against YAC. Tampa's weak rushing (96 yards/game) can't control the clock, while the Falcons' offense, hindered by Cousins’ immobility, faces pressure from the Bucs' defense.
Mitchell Biever
2d ago
Last 30d: 28-30-0 (-3.3u)
D.London First Touchdown Scorer Yes+900
4.5u
T.Allgeier o7.5 Rush Att-125
1.88u
B.Irving o9.5 Rush Att-105
1.58u
B.Irving Anytime TD Scorer Yes+150
1.5u
D.London Anytime TD Scorer Yes+145
2.18u
B.Mayfield u1.5 Pass TDs-125
1.88u
K.Cousins o228.5 Pass Yds-117
1.5u
ATL -120
2u
TB u21.5 Team Total-105
2.1u
Prop Bet Guy
2d ago
Last 30d: 87-57-0 (+24.5u)
B.Robinson o3.5 Recs-120
1.2u
Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/bijan-robinson-player-prop-for-buccaneers-vs-falcons-on-thursday-night-football
Nick Martin
2d ago
Last 30d: 29-39-1 (-3.8u)
T.Allgeier o34.5 Rush Yds-110
0.5u
Under 21 (1H)-104
0.5u
Under 43.5-110
0.5u
Scott Rickenbach
2d ago
Last 30d: 51-48-1 (-7.0u)
ATL -122
0.82u
Moneyline Hacks
2d ago
Last 30d: 169-137-5 (+73.5u)
Under 43.5-110
1.5u
All Free analysis & VIP Picks can be found in the MoneylineSharps Discord. Link: https://discord.gg/zkcR4EnvbW
Mjaybrod
2d ago
Last 30d: 102-94-0 (+4.7u)
Under 21.5 (1H)-110
1u
This is pretty much a stimulus check
Sandy Plashkes
2d ago
Last 30d: 112-99-4 (+16.6u)
B.Robinson o61.5 Rush Yds-112
1.12u
Collin Whitchurch
2d ago
Last 30d: 150-139-2 (+2.9u)
Under 44-105
1.05u
Ryan Sura
2d ago
Last 30d: 85-111-2 (-36.6u)
T.Allgeier o34.5 Rush Yds-114
1.14u
PvB Bets
2d ago
Last 30d: 4-8-0 (-4.6u)
B.Robinson o24.5 Rec Yds-130
1u
B. Robinson 25+ Receiving Yards (-130 @ DraftKings)
Bijan has cleared this mark in 3 of 4 games this season and his only under still landed above 20 yards. He's averaging 4 targets and 3.8 receptions per game.
Tampa has allowed just the 18th most rushing yards this season, but they have allowed the 2nd most receiving yards to opposing TE's. This Atlanta rushing offense has not been effective the last 2 games, and we could easily see a more negative game script here in TB starts hot like they have been.
With how unreliable Pitts has been, outside of London there isn't a real second go to target. Bijan should be a prime target out of the backfield, especially if the ground game struggles or they get behind early.
B.Irving o41.5 Rush Yds-115
0.87u
B. Irving ⬆️ 41.5 RushY (-115)
Let's start by saying THE BLITZ does not particularly like this play. I think it's underestimating Irving's increased involvement though. Here is is snap count and rushing attempts for the first 3 weeks:
Week 1: 20 snaps, 9 attempts
Week 2: 17 snaps, 7 attempts
Week 3: 18 snaps, 9 attempts
He's been a steady contributor and out rush attempted White in week 3 9 to 6. In a presser with the TB coach, he has great things to say about Bucky and talked about he needed to continue to be involved with White.
The truth is Bucky has been the more effective runner this season between the two:
White: 41 attempts for 115 yards, 2.8 yards per carry
Bucky: 35 for 203, 5.8 yards per carry
Bucky also has the only rushing TD between the two and holds a better PFF rushing grade. Additionally, despite fewer carries, Bucky holds more yards after contact, missed tackles and breakaway rushing plays.
Bucky tends to run more out of a man/gap concept, while White runs in more of zone concepts. ATL ranks 2nd worst in success rate vs man/gap concept rushing this season.
ATL has allowed the 7th most rushing yards this season and 6th most attempts this season. It looks like a good matchup for the split backfield, but I'll take the guy that's just been a better runner this season.
Lines at Lunch
2d ago
Last 30d: 108-96-2 (+1.5u)
B.Mayfield o250 Pass Yds+100
1u
Johnny
B.Robinson Anytime TD Scorer Yes-135
1.35u
Johnny
Sandy Plashkes
2d ago
Last 30d: 112-99-4 (+16.6u)
D.London Anytime TD Scorer Yes+132
1.32u
Tailing @shadybiev
Lines at Lunch
2d ago
Last 30d: 108-96-2 (+1.5u)
ATL -124
1u
Sandy
K.Cousins u233.5 Pass Yds-114
1.14u
Sura
The Propfessor
2d ago
Last 30d: 32-18-0 (+9.6u)
T.Allgeier o33.5 Rush Yds-115
1.15u
I like backing RB2s on TNF due to the short week. We also get the added bonus of Bijan being limited earlier in the week with his hamstring injury. He did practice in full yesterday and is “good-to-go”, but we likely see a lot of Allgeier here anyways.
Not to mention Allgeier has been great with his touches this season. 6.1 YPC and 9th in the NFL in explosive rush rate.
Tampa Bay will have Vita Vea here, but their run defense has been pretty bad anyways (he’s only missed one game). On the season, they’re bottom 5 in YPC and explosive run rate allowed. PFF has them graded as the 3rd worst run defense (48.3).
Sandy Plashkes
2d ago
Last 30d: 112-99-4 (+16.6u)
ATL -124
1u
Brian Bitler
2d ago
Last 30d: 48-52-4 (-10.6u)
B.Irving u44 Rush Yds-112
3u
Sean Koerner
2d ago
Last 30d: 30-22-0 (+4.9u)
Under 44-110
1.1u
Charlie Wright
3d ago
Last 30d: 4-2-0 (+0.9u)
D.London u63.5 Rec Yds-115
1.15u
London leads Atlanta with 31 targets and a 26.1% target share. However, his production is heavily skewed toward facing man coverage. London's target share jumps to 35.9% against man coverage looks this season. He has 14 targets vs. man coverage, while Darnell Mooney, Ray-Ray McCloud, and Kyle Pitts have only combined for 18.
But against zone? Different story. London still leads the way in usage, but just barely. Mooney and McCloud are both within 3 targets and 4% target share. McCloud actually has 2 more receptions than London against zone coverage. Both McCloud and Mooney have better yards per route and yards per target numbers.
Atlanta just faced two teams that rank top 8 in man coverage rate (Kansas City and New Orleans). Now, they get the defense that leads the league in zone coverage rate. Tampa Bay's 84.4% zone rate is 2.5% higher than the next-closest team (Chargers). The Bucs and Chargers are the only teams above 80%.
Even while dominating targets, London has maxed out at 67 receiving yards through 4 games.
Ryan Sura
3d ago
Last 30d: 85-111-2 (-36.6u)
K.Cousins u233.5 Pass Yds-114
1.14u
Grant Neiffer
3d ago
Last 30d: 23-40-0 (-10.3u)
C.Godwin o64.5 Rec Yds-113
1.13u
Kyle Murray
3d ago
Last 30d: 88-84-2 (-1.6u)
B.Robinson o26 Rec Yds-113
1.13u
D.London o5.5 Recs+102
1.02u
C.Otton o3.5 Recs+110
1u
Royals Props
3d ago
Last 30d: 33-46-0 (-18.2u)
R.White o21.5 Rec Yds-113
1.13u
Vs Zone coverage, White has 11 catches on 12 targets which is the 2nd highest on the team behind Godwin. He has the highest TGT% on the team vs zone and I think he’s used heavily if trailing.
Atlanta has an elite secondary which should limit the deep concepts and increase checkdowns. Interesting fact I found was white played 7 snaps in the slot last week which has increased every week.
This tells me the coaching staff has confidence in him and is finding new ways to get him the ball in space where he’s at his best. We saw a lot of 2 rb sets last week, Tampa is not giving up on him and neither am I
PvB Bets
3d ago
Last 30d: 4-8-0 (-4.6u)
C.Otton o3.5 Recs+135
1u
C. Otton ⬆️ 3.5 Receptions (+135 @ 365)
THE BLITZ 📽️: 3.85 Recs
I like this price a lot. Cade is coming off back to back 6 and 7 catch games and gets a very solid matchup this week vs ATL. Here is where Cade ranks in offensive stats for TB:
Targets: 3rd
Receptions: 3rd
Rec Yards: 4th
Passing snaps: 1st
He's pretty clearly the 3rd option in this passing attack and was last season as well. He is on the field a ton, leading the team in passing snaps, including ahead of Evans and Godwin. He is used to block some, but still runs a route on 86.4% of passing plays.
The easiest way to attack ATL's defense is in the middle of the field. Last season they allowed the 4th most receptions to opposing TE's and this season have allowed 12th most so far. Let's look at some more advanced stats and where ATL's defense ranks:
aDOT: 2nd lowest
Air Yards: 6th fewest
Catch Rate Allowed: 2nd most
Catch Target %: 2nd highest
Wide Target %: 3rd fewest
Slot Target %: 3rd highest
In summary, this defense tends to allow shorter receptions with a high target and catch rate. They allow a low target % to outside WR's and give up much more to WR's lined up in the slot. This all plays to our advantage. A shorter passing game makes me like receptions more and Otton runs plenty out of the slot.
The ATL defense is also capable at bringing pressure, which is another reason why offenses tend to get the ball out quick. They rank 15 in time to pressure and 18th in pressure percentage. This season ATL has allowed the 7th most checkdown throw percentage this season.
I think we see Otton continue to be the security blanket in this one. Last season in two games vs this divisional opponent, he had 5 and 6 targets.
Gilles Gallant
3d ago
Last 30d: 28-71-0 (-3.0u)
C.Otton Anytime TD Scorer Yes+400
0.5u
This is just too high of odds.
Ray Monohan
3d ago
Last 30d: 9-16-0 (-5.6u)
Under 43.5-109
0.75u
Proptology _
4d ago
Last 30d: 22-16-0 (+9.3u)
D.London o5.5 Recs+122
3u
🔬Going Back to London to kick off week 5. Drake sees a TB defense that runs cover 3 the 3rd most in the league
🔬London has one of the top 10-15 Target shares vs zone and his first read target share hit 50% last game. Drake has the 2nd highest first read target share in the NFL over the last 3 weeks
🔬Londons last 3 games vs TB - 10/172, 6/54, 6/120
🔬As long as a game is close or the Falcons are behind i think we see that 6 is actually more like Londons floor rest of season
Grant Neiffer
4d ago
Last 30d: 23-40-0 (-10.3u)
B.Robinson o24.5 Rec Yds-117
1.17u
Firefighter Bets
4d ago
Last 30d: 100-111-0 (-21.8u)
B.Irving o41.5 Rush Yds-115
0.87u
Prop Bet Guy
5d ago
Last 30d: 87-57-0 (+24.5u)
B.Irving o38.5 Rush Yds-114
1u
Over in 3/4, with the miss in a tough spot vs DET. The other three games he’s been consistently great: 10/49, 9/70, 9/62. And now he gets the Falcons who are allowing a ton of volume (23.8 RB rush att per game, and 36 total rushes per game), and with below avg results (22nd in FTN Fantasy’s DVOA in rush defense).
Troy Anderson (Falcons off-ball LB) is banged up too - would be a nice bonus if he can’t go. Irving has been better than White all season, and his snap share has been creeping in the right direction. And I like Tampa to keep this one close at least enough to be running the ball in the 4Q.
I see him with 11-12 attempts on Thursday, which should have him in the mid 40s.
PRO Insights
Buccaneers
TB Insights
- Featured InsightThe Buccaneers have allowed 3.7 points per Red Zone drive this season -- 10th-best in NFL; the Falcons have scored 3.3 points per Red Zone drive this season -- 4th-worst in NFL.
TRY FOR FREE
Falcons
ATL Insights
- Featured InsightThe Falcons forced 1 turnovers last week -- T-7th-most in NFL; the Buccaneers turned the ball over 1 times last week -- T-7th-most in NFL.
TRY FOR FREE
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Previews & Analysis
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Props
Prop Projections
There are no prop projections found for the selected slate. Please check back later.
Prop Odds Comparison
Line Movement Tracker
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Public Betting Percentages
Betting Trends
- Falcons are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Falcons are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Falcons are 1-0 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Falcons' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Falcons' 4 last games at home
Matchup History
Against the Spread (ATS) History
overall | home | away | favorite | underdog | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Falcons | 2-3 | 1-3 | 1-0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
Buccaneers | 3-2 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-1 |
Over/Under History
overall | home o/u | away o/u | favorite o/u | underdog o/u | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Falcons | 2-3 | 2-2 | 0-1 | 2-1 | 0-2 |
Buccaneers | 3-2 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-1 |
Straight-Up (ML) History
overall | home | away | favorite | underdog | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Falcons | 3-2 | N/A | N/A | 2-1 | 1-1 |
Buccaneers | 3-2 | N/A | N/A | 1-1 | 2-1 |
Last 5 Matchups
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Injury Updates
Buccaneers Injuries
- Trey PalmerWR
Palmer is out with concussion
Out
- Jalen McMillanWR
McMillan is out with hamstring
Out
Falcons Injuries
- Troy AndersenLB
Andersen is out with knee
Out
- Jase McClellanRB
McClellan is questionable with illness
Questionable
Team Stats
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Odds Comparison
Could not load odds
Buccaneers at Falcons Team Totals
MatchupOverUnder | ||
---|---|---|
Buccaneers 3-2 | o20.5-118 | u20.5-102 |
Falcons 3-2 | o23.5+100 | u23.5-120 |