Packers vs. Vikings Odds & Betting Predictions - September 13, 2026

Boomer’s Book

Brian Flores is obviously going to bring pressure, and that’s a big reason I like this market. Love’s dropback-to-pass-attempt rate jumped against the blitz last year. He does a great job avoiding sacks when pressured, doesn’t scramble much, and will throw the ball away at a pretty high rate against the blitz, which is basically perfect for a pass-attempt over. I also think Green Bay could be a little less run-heavy without Josh Jacobs, which should push a few more plays toward Love.

There may be some value on the passing yards prop for Kyler Murray. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 280.08 passing yards, and the oddsmakers are implying 233.35. The model believes there is a 70% chance he records at least 224.5 passing yards, so there is value on the over at +114. This play is good down to at least -156. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Cheese

Game 1 1H Unders NFL O/U 1H Record84-41-3, 67.2% Margin 1.93 Money Won +$3,522 ROI27.5% GradeA #TSA

Bought a cheap 47

I think this is a great spot to back Minnesota at home. The Vikings come into Week 1 healthy, while Green Bay is dealing with some massive injuries to arguably its most important players. Outside of Jordan Love, I think Micah Parsons, Josh Jacobs, and Tucker Kraft are three of the most important players on this Packers roster. Parsons and Jacobs are both out, while Kraft is clearly going to be playing at less than 100%. Those are significant losses on both sides of the ball, and I don't think the market is properly accounting for them. The Parsons loss is obviously huge. He's the type of defensive player you have to account for on every single snap and can completely change how an offense approaches protection. Without him, this Green Bay pass rush becomes a lot less intimidating, especially against a healthy Minnesota offensive line. Then there's Josh Jacobs. I think his absence could be just as important for this specific matchup. Matt LaFleur wants to establish a heavy ground attack, but I'm not sure how Green Bay consistently does that without Jacobs. Marshawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks, and Kaleb Johnson have only 480 combined career rushing yards. That's a pretty inexperienced backfield to rely on, especially behind an offensive line I have serious concerns about. In fact, I think Green Bay has one of the bottom five offensive lines in football entering the season. Now that group has to deal with Brian Flores and one of the most aggressive pressure defenses in the NFL. Flores is going to disguise looks, bring pressure from different areas and force Jordan Love to make quick decisions. If Green Bay can't establish the run without Jacobs, Minnesota can become even more aggressive on obvious passing downs. Minnesota's defense also finished third in defensive DVOA last season, and Flores has consistently shown he can get more out of this unit through scheme and pressure. That's a matchup I really like against a banged up Packers offense that could struggle to stay ahead of the chains. The matchup flips when Minnesota has the football. Green Bay's run defense was a major weakness last season, and losing Parsons certainly isn't going to help the front seven. Minnesota comes into Week 1 with a healthy offensive line, and I'm excited to see what Frank Smith's redesigned rushing attack looks like. If the Vikings can establish the run early, it should open up the entire offense. Kyler Murray is a question mark, but I’ve always been thought he was put in an awful spot in Arizona. Murray is extremely talented and just needed a second chance. This also feels like a perfect home spot for Minnesota to jump on a wounded divisional rival. The Vikings have won 7 of the last 11 meetings between these teams. There's also an interesting Week 1 trend here: in divisional matchups featuring a playoff team against a non-playoff team from the previous season, the non-playoff team is 42-18-1 ATS (70%). Ultimately, I just think Green Bay is being overrated by the market based on what this roster looks like at full strength. That's not the Packers team Minnesota is facing Sunday. Our model makes the Vikings -195 favorites, so I’ll gladly take them at -126. Give me Minnesota to win at home.

This isn't just me drinking the purple Kool-Aid; I am sticking to my preseason priors. I love the Vikings to win the division at +510, as they are the healthiest team in the NFC North. I also bet the Packers to finish last in the division. This division is tough, but Minnesota looks as live as any of the four to have a big season. Micah Parsons, Josh Jacobs, and Tucker Kraft are Green Bay's most important players after Jordan Love,. Two of them are out, and Kraft is well less than 100%. The Packers seem very overrated in the market right now without those key players—I make this line closer to Vikings -4 or -5. Green Bay features a bottom-five offensive line going up against Brian Flores' aggressive pressure defense. Not great. Matt LaFleur wants to run a heavy ground attack, but he has no actual running backs available; Marshawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks, and Kaleb Johnson have a combined 480 career rushing yards. That's bad news behind a lackluster line. On the other side, the Packers' run defense collapsed last year. Minnesota boasts a healthy offensive line and Frank Smith's redesigned rushing attack could make its mark early. This is a dream home spot for the Vikings to jump on a wounded rival in Week 1. In Week 1 divisional games featuring a playoff team against a non-playoff team, the non-playoff team is 42-18-1 ATS (70%). The Vikings have won 7 of the last 11 in this rivalry, but 7 of the last 9 meetings have been decided by 13 or more points, so these games are not always close even if it's a huge rivalry.

@wheatonbrando https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nfl-betting-playground-week-1/id1004530793?i=1000789000615

@GDAWG5000 https://open.spotify.com/episode/0FRCvBCOjsMbSyaB9McQxr?si=qion2LxCRuqOsRTD66bmrg&utm_source=copy-link

@Stuckey2 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nfl-week-1-betting-preview/id1004530793?i=1000788564665