Seahawks vs. Patriots Odds & Betting Predictions - February 8, 2026

If SEA wins and everyone lands around median outcome, JSN wins (possibly even w/o TD if game is low-scoring enough). Prop-implied stat lines: JSN 7 rec, 93 yd, 1 TD Darnold 20-29, 228 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT JSN projects to account for ~40% of Darnold’s pass yardage.

NE D 1.2% rush TD rate in 15g w/ DT Milton Williams (4.7% w/o), including 2 TD on 262 RB carries (0.8%).

#SundaySixPack 6.6 car, 38.9 rush yd (5.9 YPC) w/ 41+ in 4-of-7g post-bye vs. 6.2-24.5 (3.9) w/ 31 or less in 10-of-13g pre-bye. SEA D 6.5% scramble rate allowed 6th-highest. Maye 10.4% scramble rate with rookie LT Will Campbell + rookie LG Jared Wilson both active vs. 8.7% when one/both miss.

Elliss has only cleared this number in 5 of 18 games this season (28%), so on the surface this line already looks too high. My initial thought was that Robert Spillane’s ankle injury could justify it, since a Spillane absence might boost Elliss’ role. After digging in, that assumption turned out to be wrong. When Spillane has missed time this season, the Patriots have had Jack Gibbens wear the green dot and take over Spillane’s role, with Jahlani Tavai also seeing an uptick in playing time. Elliss’ role has remained essentially unchanged whether Spillane is active or not, so Spillane’s status for the Super Bowl doesn’t meaningfully impact Elliss’ projection. Seattle also sets up as a tougher matchup for Elliss to rack up tackles. He’s made a tackle on 20.6% of opponent run plays this season, but that rate is strongly correlated with how often teams run inside. The more inside runs, the higher his tackle rate. The Seahawks already rank 5th lowest in inside run rate, and with Zach Charbonnet done for the season and Kenneth Walker handling most of the workload, I’m projecting Seattle to run inside on just 35% of their attempts. That would rank 3rd lowest league wide, as Walker only runs inside on 33% of his carries, the 4th lowest rate among 49 qualified RBs. Charbonnet was much closer to league average at 49.5%. As a result, I have Elliss projected for roughly 3 run tackles and around 2.5 tackles on completed passes. His playing time should sit in the 65–70% range regardless of Spillane’s status, which reinforces the idea that this number is simply too high, likely due to the market overvaluing Spillane’s injury. I’m projecting Elliss closer to 5.8 tackles with around a 62% chance he stays under 6.5. Best price is currently the -118 at betMGM, but still in play at DK/FD/every other book offering tackle props. PrizePicks is offering it as well and would pair it with Leonard Williams Over 3.5 there (my other official tackle prop).

#Tailing @nick_giffen

As given on prop show

As given on prop show

Like this look from @The_Oddsmaker

3 or less in 12-of-18g (66.7%). NE D 4.9 sched-adj Tar/g to WR2s T-4th-fewest.

Gave out on live show (live now!). Also love attacking alt overs for this market

Seahawks 💣 💣

Propapalooza

Gave out on live show. Only has one rush att in the 3Q all season (was an aborted snap that went for 0 yards). Makes sense as the offense will be fairly scripted coming out of half and most of his scrambles come in the 2nd and 4th Q. AJ Barner handling the QB sneak/tush push play limits his upside here. Quickslip link: https://bit.ly/KOERNERSAM3QRUSH

Has been TE2 in every game active and bet voids if inactive. 1+ rec in 9-of-13 (69%) active.

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker & @ChrisRaybon

On this with @ChrisRaybon

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Gave out on live show

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker after I found a 53.5 at Bet365.

Gave out on live prop show. Live now!

Seeing 5’s pop up, taking a standard 1 unit position on them at this number, still time to buy out of it or add to the position if the read changes but I can’t imagine this one closes north of 5.

@The_Oddsmaker Prop-A-Palooza https://myaction.app/xPQAd6TQk0b

Gave out of Prop-a-Palooza pod (now up!). Proj closer to -125

Already got em for ATD at +410, may as well 🪜 and let the young man rumble!

Gave out of Prop-a-Palooza pod (now up!). Projecting Rhamondre to have the most rushing yards in the 1Q closer to +170 (note: this market is specific to him, not that he will have the “most rushing yards” in the 1Q). With the Pats potentially ending up in a rare trailing game script, have a higher % of his rush att coming earlier in the game than usual.

#Tailing @ChrisRaybon

53+ rush yd in 9-of-20 (45%), 32 or less in the rest. 4 carries of 52+ so not dead even if usage doesn’t rebound.

@The_Oddsmaker Prop-A-Palooza https://myaction.app/Ec678CCKk0b

Through three playoff games, Stefon Diggs has seen his role in the offense compressed to a short-area outlet as Drake Maye has faced consistent pressure. Diggs’ aDOT has been just 5.5 yards in the playoffs, a significant reduction from his 8.7-yard aDOT during the regular season. 81.3% of his targets during the playoffs have come within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage compared to 68% during the regular season, and he has just one target of 20+ yards. Diggs led the Patriots with a 16.5% target share when Maye was pressured during the regular season, and he’s done the same with a 25% target share under pressure through the three playoff games. However, he has just a 15.3% air-yard share on those looks as his volume has come closer to the line of scrimmage. The Seahawks have funneled targets underneath all season, allowing the 3rd-lowest catch rate (42%) and fewest YPRR (1.90) on 10+ yard throws, while forcing the 2nd-most targets within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (383) during the regular season. Combined with their elite pressure rate without blitzing, that leads directly into Diggs continuing to see those short targets he’s seen all year. Diggs has posted long receptions of 9, 14, and 6 yards during the playoffs. I’m betting this usage profile continues in a matchup that has consistently suppressed downfield efficiency. #PlayerProps

2 or less in 16 of 20g overall, 5 or less in 7 of 11 with SEA. 5 carries in 1st 4g with SEA, but 5 in his last 7g including 3g with 0 carries. Only 13 of 29 (44.8%) career carries have gone for more than 5, including only 5 of 12 this season (41.7%)

6.6 car, 38.9 rush yd (5.9 YPC) w/ 41+ in 4-of-7g post-bye vs. 6.2-24.5 (3.9) w/ 31 or less in 10-of-13g pre-bye. SEA D 6.5% scramble rate allowed 6th-highest. Maye 10.4% scramble rate with rookie LT Will Campbell + rookie LG Jared Wilson both active vs. 8.7% when one/both miss.

Some Henry sprinkles. Good matchup for many reasons. Will talk about on pod and in written preview.

TreVeyon Henderson over 0.5 receptions (-140 at BetMGM, Caesars, Hard Rock) Henderson got phased out of the offense for the most part in the conference championship game, but a lot of that has to do with the snow and with the Patriots playing with the lead, with Vrabel trusting Rhamondre Stevenson not to fumble in the conditions. With a week off to prepare, in ideal conditions, and the Patriots more likely to trail than not, I can see Henderson drifting back toward his usage in the first two rounds of the playoffs which, while still not a ton, was 17 routes in two games, being targeted three times. This is a spot where his target rate should theoretically go up, as the Seahawks play a lot of zone coverage (5th most in the NFL), and lean toward two-high safety looks. Against zone, Henderson has been targeted on 21% of his routes, compared to just 6% of routes against man coverage. And against two-high safety looks, Henderson's target rate is 22% compared to 15% against single high looks. We also have to factor in that Seattle is a high pressure defense, and while everyone's target per route goes down under pressure (because of sacks, throwaways, and QB scrambles), Henderson's drops less than the average receiver, with the third-lowest dip when Maye is under pressure of 9 regular Patriot pass catchers. With two weeks to scheme things up, I'd look for a designed play to help bust this stingy Seahawks zone defense that allows the most targets per game in the league to RBs. I'd play this to -165, meaning all current available prices at the time I dropped the pick in the Action App are playable.

Rhamondre has certainly been on fire over the last four games heading into the Super Bowl, but I think we could see a dip in both his volume and efficiency in the big game. First, let’s talk about volume. The Patriots have won six straight games and went 14–3 in the regular season, and as a result, they’ve played with the lead 62% of the time this season. That’s allowed them to lean on the run at a higher rate due to game script. However, they still ranked 5th in pass rate over expected, so if they ever do get into a trailing script, we could see their designed rush attempt volume to RBs specifically plummet. We also saw TreVeyon Henderson essentially phased out last week, with Rhamondre racking up 25 carries. A lot of that shift likely had to do with the weather and the massive amount of snow we saw in the second half, as the Pats were simply trying to run out the clock and lean on their defense to keep Jarrett Stidham from beating them. As rare 4.5-point underdogs here, I’m projecting the Pats to play with the lead at a 30% lower rate than usual, which is very high for this late in the season. That means I’m projecting their overall dropback rate to go up and their designed rush attempts to go down, with Henderson mixing in closer to his typical role. That leaves Rhamondre projected closer to 13–13.5 rush attempts, making his Under 14.5 rush attempts (current line) very much in play. The reason I’d rather fade his yardage, though, is that I also expect a dip in efficiency. Rhamondre has been great this year, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, but the Pats have had by far the easiest schedule this season. The Seahawks defense ranks 1st in DVOA and will be his toughest matchup to date. Stevenson has led the league with a ridiculous 6.9 yards per carry against stacked boxes. However, Seattle uses a stacked box at the 2nd lowest rate in the league and instead tends to use seven defenders in the box at one of the highest rates. When facing seven defenders in the box, Rhamondre’s efficiency plummets, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry, which ranks 45th out of 48 qualified RBs. He also runs inside the tackles at the 4th highest rate, essentially straight into the teeth of the defense, which will make it tougher for him to rack up explosive runs. If he struggles early, we could also see Henderson mix in more, which would further lower Rhamondre’s volume. I’m projecting him closer to 49.5 rushing yards, with around a 60% chance to stay under 56.5.

Plucking off this INT line at -115 since its -140 everywhere else.

🔪 Super Bowls tend to start slow. They tend to start slow even when the combatants are used to the environment. Drake Maye and Sam Darnold are anything but familiar. The strength of both teams lies within their defensive capabilities, expect that facet of the game to win early.

NE D 3.2 YPC, 52.8 yd/g to RB in 15g with Milton Williams. Walker 19-62 last week vs LAR D allowing 4.1 YPC, 87.1 YPG to RB.

This line should not be 3.5. And it won’t be for long. 4 is key now so get it early if you want it. Super Bowl winners almost always cover.