49ers vs. Bengals Betting Odds & Picks: The Line Move Says It All

49ers vs. Bengals Betting Odds & Picks: The Line Move Says It All article feature image
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Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Andy Dalton

49ers at Bengals Betting Odds

  • Odds: Bengals -1.5
  • Total: 45.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

Odds above as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).

One of these teams won last week, but it’s not the one the market has pushed the line toward.

The Bengals, who played the Seahawks close in a 21-20 road loss, have been bet up to 1.5-point favorites after opening as 2-point underdogs.

But are the 49ers being undervalued following their Week 1 win in Tampa?

Our analysts break down the most important angles of this game, featuring Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a pick.

49ers-Bengals Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Neither

The Bengals are in rough shape for this one.

WR A.J. Green (ankle) and T Cordy Glenn (concussion) still aren’t practicing after being out in Week 1.

Joe Mixon (ankle) also hasn’t returned to practice after leaving last week’s game. If Mixon misses practice on Friday, there’s a good chance he could be ruled out, which would benefit Giovani Bernard fantasy investors.

The 49ers are banged up on both sides of the ball, which isn’t great since the season just started. DE Nick Bosa (ankle) missed practice on Thursday, Tevin Coleman (ankle) is likely out again with his high-ankle sprain, and WRs Jalen Hurd (back) and Trent Taylor (foot) still aren’t practicing.

Deebo Samuel, Marquise Goodwin and Richie James Jr. saw most of the work in Week 1 among 49ers wide receivers. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: 49ers -1
  • Projected Total: 46

The wrong team is favored in this matchup.

I think the Bengals are much better than we anticipated. New head coach Zac Taylor is tailoring the offense to be similar to the Rams, and it showed with a 400-plus yard passing game from Dalton in Week 1. The public seems anxious to buy into them in the short term and I can’t blame them.

Still, while no one was confusing the 49ers of being a 10-plus win team entering the season, it’s interesting to see the public sour on them in what was admittedly a sloppy 31-17 win over Tampa Bay.

This feels like a bit of a Week 1 overcorrection, but going from 49ers -1 to +1.5 is a 2.5-point move that doesn’t cross over a key number. I’ll be much more interested in the 49ers if this gets to 3, which should trigger a bet. Sean Koerner

Biggest Mismatch

49ers’ Pass Defense vs. Bengals’ Pass Offense

These two teams are actually quite similar: They both have questionable offensive lines, injuries at running back and will face dominant defensive fronts that should control the line of scrimmage.

You have to like the matchup for both tight ends, but I think the Bengals are better set up for success through the air, even without Green.

A week after Andy Dalton threw for a career high, he will get to face almost the same exact defense as coordinator Robert Saleh comes from the Pete Carroll coaching tree — they both like to bring a safety in the box and close off the middle of the field.

Taylor, a disciple of Sean McVay, is obviously very familiar with this scheme having just come from the NFC West. He’s going to run a lot of 11 personnel and attack what remains a very vulnerable 49ers secondary, especially at safety. Yes, Ahkello Witherspoon had a great game in Tampa, but it’s just one week. I need to see more before I believe that’s a performance you can count on.

The more household name, Richard Sherman, is on the other side at corner. He had a solid 2018, but mainly because nobody would throw to his side as a result of the weakness at the other corner spot. But he’s getting older and has definitely lost a step, which is going to make guarding quicker receivers even tougher.

Enter John Ross, who is fresh off a Week 1 explosion and is one of my biggest breakout candidates for 2019. I think the Bengals can exploit the 49ers’ secondary down the field with Ross and Boyd, much like they did against the Seahawks.

John Ross
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: John Ross

I don’t expect either team to have much success running the ball. And both defensive fronts should make plays, but I trust the Cincy passing game more at this point. I think their receivers have better matchups across the board.

Jimmy Garoppolo looked completely off against a bad Bucs defense. He has a group of raw receivers who are trying to pick up a complex Kyle Shanahan offense. The timing looked off, and I imagine that will take some time to fix. Jimmy G will also be without receiver Trent Taylor, who he has a great rapport with out on the field. Stuckey

Expert Pick

Stuckey: Bengals -1.5

The records of the 1-0 Niners and 0-1 Bengals could be easily flipped.

San Fran benefited from a number of Tampa Bay miscues last week, including two gift pick-6s. The Bengals, meanwhile, lost by one in Seattle in a game they out-gained the Seahawks 429 to 233 with a 6.1-to-4.8 yards per play advantage.

I’m higher on the Bengals and lower on the 49ers than most, so in a game I make a coin flip on a neutral field, I like the Bengals at anything under a field goal in Cincy. I’d also throw them in with the Ravens moneyline if you’re looking for a small plus-money parlay.

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