49ers vs. Cardinals Expert Picks: How We’re Betting This Thursday Night Football Spread
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Trent Sherfield, Kyler Murray
- The San Francisco 49ers are large favorites on against the Arizona Cardinals on Thursday Night Football.
- Our experts reveal how they're betting the 10-point spread, with two picks from our staff.
49ers at Cardinals Odds & Picks
- Odds: 49ers -10
- Over/Under: 43
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX, NFL Network, Amazon Prime
Odds as of noon ET on Thursday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
After opening at -7, the San Francisco 49ers have been bet up to 10-point favorites for the Thursday Night Football showdown against the Arizona Cardinals. But where’s the value on the spread now?
Our experts reveal how they’re betting it, complete with two picks.
John Ewing: Cardinals +10
The 49ers have moved from 7- to 10-points favorites. They’re undefeated while the Cardinals were blown out in Week 8, so it’s easy to understand why the line is moving.
However, it’s been profitable go against big line moves in primetime games.
Since 2003, a $100 bettor would have won $2,133 backing teams that see the line move at least two points against them (+3 to +5 or -3 to -1, for example) on Monday, Thursday and Sunday Night Football, according to our Bet Labs data.
Big line movement is often an overreaction to a piece of information. In this case, that’s the recent performances from both teams. According to our Bet Labs sims, the 49ers are projected to win by 4.4 points on average.
History and our sims suggest the Cardinals are being undervalued by the betting market. With the odds on the move, we can wait to place a wager until closer to kickoff and hope for a better line. I would take Arizona at any price +9 or better. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
PJ Walsh: Cardinals +10
Going against big line moves in primetime games isn’t the only historically profitable betting angle pointing toward the Cardinals — our Fade Covering Teams Pro System also suggests that San Francisco is overvalued in this matchup.
It’s not surprising to see bettors blindly backing teams that have won them money in recent weeks, but oddsmakers don’t blindly set lines. They know this one-sided action is coming ahead of time, and will set lines that force bettors to take shaded numbers when playing the popular side of a matchup like this one.
Therefore, contrarian-minded bettors can scoop up extra line value by making the ugly play with the underdogs, which in this case is the Cardinals. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]