5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for 49ers vs. Seahawks, Including Christian McCaffrey, Brock Purdy
Picture by Getty Images. Pictured: Brock Purdy (49ers)
The other three players on this most valuable list are probably flying underneath your radar.
We wrote earlier on Thursday about the valuable spread pick for this contest, which fades teams based on sharp action.
Our algorithms laboriously factor in matchups, weather, scheme and other mechanisms to best deduce which props across the marketplace provide positive expected value.
View more NFL player prop projections, lines and odds here!
5 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for 49ers vs. Seahawks on Thursday Night Football
- Christian McCaffrey under 18.5 rush attempts -125 (DraftKings)
- Brock Purdy under 214.5 passing yards -115 (DraftKings)
- Noah Fant under 25.5 receiving yards -110 (FanDuel)
- Marquise Goodwin under 27.5 receiving yards -115 (DraftKings)
- Will Dissly under 16.5 receiving yards -125 (DraftKings)
*Odds and data are as of Thursday morning, according to Koerner’s models. These are the market’s most valuable prices.
The most valuable prop for Thursday Night Football’s 49ers vs. Seahawks is on Christian McCaffrey — but not on any of his overs.
His under on rushing attempts is actually the move here. While he’s due to see increased volume because Deebo Samuel is out — and with a rookie quarterback in — he figures to get more touches through the air as a result.
Our models expect McCaffrey to carry the ball roughly 15.5 times tonight. That gives the under at 18.5 a roughly 12% betting edge.
Essentially, you’re getting a 12% discount on the true price of that prop bet, according to our algorithms.
49ers third-stringer-turned starter Brock Purdy has the second-most valuable prop for Thursday Night Football.
While he’s projected to have about 201.5 passing yards tonight, according to Koerner’s models, DraftKings has his total priced at 214.5. The under there has a vig of -115.
That’s a betting edge of about 11%.
The next three most valuable picks are unders on Seahawks receivers and tight ends.
Seahawks tight end Noah Fant is expected to put up 21.1 receiving yards, but his market best price has him putting up 25.5. That gives this pick a roughly 9% edge.
Same goes for his tight end counterpart, Will Dissly. Projection? 12.4 yards through the air. DraftKings has his total slated at 16.5, though.
And wide receiver Marquise Goodwin’s under is also the play, according to Koerner’s models. Goodwin is projected to have 21.4 receiving yards, compared to a market price of 27.5.