Aaron Rodgers Trade or Retirement Would Plummet Packers’ Super Bowl Odds From 10% to 0.8%

Aaron Rodgers Trade or Retirement Would Plummet Packers’ Super Bowl Odds From 10% to 0.8% article feature image
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Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers

The Green Bay Packers opened the offseason with the second-best odds to win Super Bowl 56. Now they’re down to eighth.

That’s what happens when the reigning league MVP quarterback reportedly doesn’t want to return to your team.

Aaron Rodgers stole draft day headlines when reports leaked hours before the start of Round 1, detailing the extent of his dissatisfaction with the situation in Green Bay. The news had an immediate impact on the betting market, moving the Packers’ Super Bowl odds from +1100 (8.3% implied probability) immediately before rumors started swirling to +1400 (6.7%) directly after official reports (via DraftKings).

Those have since fallen even further to +1700 (5.6%), meaning the Packers’ Super Bowl odds have seen a total decline of 2.7% in implied probability since the news broke (convert more probabilities with our Betting Odds Calculator).

That decline is easily explained by the uncertainty about Rodgers’ future, but if the Packers cave and end up trading him or the future Hall of Famer decides to retire, it would have even bigger repercussions on Green Bay’s odds — not to mention a ripple effect throughout the NFL should the league enter its first ever 17-game season with one of the biggest contenders missing its signal-caller.

But just how big would the drop-off be from Rodgers to 2020 first-round pick Jordan Love? (Or a not-yet-acquired veteran to bridge the potential gap?)

The answer: about 2.9 fewer wins and a 9.2% decline in Super Bowl chances to give the Packers less than a 1% shot at hoisting the Lombardi Trophy next February.

Those numbers are based on projections calculated by the full-season simulations that our data manager Travis Reed ran with Love subbed in for Rodgers. Here are even more comparisons of those side-by-side projections:

Packers Odds With vs. Without Aaron Rodgers

With Rodgers Without Rodgers
10.1 Wins 7.2 Wins
59.1% Division Odds 17.0% Division Odds
73.6% Playoff Odds 23.7% Playoff Odds
10% Super Bowl Odds 0.8% Super Bowl Odds

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