The Atlanta Falcons (3-5) and Indianapolis Colts (7-2) open the Week 10 Sunday slate on November 9. Kickoff is set for 9:30 a.m. ET from Olympiastadion in Berlin, Germany. The game will broadcast on NFL Network.
The Colts are favored by 6.5 points on the spread over the Falcons (Colts -6.5), with the over/under set at 48.5 points. The Colts are -275 moneyline favorites while the Falcons are +225 underdogs.
Let's get into my NFL Berlin Game preview and Falcons vs Colts predictions.
Falcons vs Colts Prediction
- Falcons vs Colts pick: Colts -6.5
My Falcons vs Colts best bet is the Colts spread at -6.5. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Falcons vs Colts Odds
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +250 |
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -310 |
Falcons vs Colts Week 10 Preview
The Colts are the talk of the league after trading for Sauce Gardner, so it's only appropriate that we start Sunday morning with the Colts as they take on the Falcons in the NFL Berlin game.
Gardner is a huge pickup for the Colts. Adding him next to nickel back Kenny Moore and Charvarius Ward (once he's healthy), should give Indy one of the league's best trio of corners. It's also just in time, too, for Gardner to cover Falcons star wide receiver Drake London as much as possible.
Don't worry too much about the Colts' loss to Pittsburgh last week. Indianapolis turned it over six times but otherwise moved the ball well — the Colts finished +10% in net Success Rate, typically a good indicator that the team was better than the final score indicated. Football is hard, and the ball is oblong. It happens.
The Colts defense is probably a bit overrated, but they are still better than the inconsistent Falcons offense, which doesn't seem to have many answers when it can't dictate things.
Everyone knows about Atlanta's star weapons on offense (namely, London and Bijan Robinson), but the offensive line has been a hidden strength in recent years. However, Chris Lindstrom is questionable to play and Matthew Bergeron has been ruled out. The Falcons are already without last year's C and RT — this line is struggling.
By contrast, the Colts have arguably the best offensive line in the league this season. The line was embarrassed last week by Pittsburgh, but that should mean a focused, spirited effort to rebound against the Falcons.
Atlanta's defense feels overrated, and it's certainly not been good against the run (24th in DVOA). The Falcons built their defense around small, speedy pass rushers — that works in some matchups, but it's going to be a problem against the Colts' rushing attack.
The Colts also have a big special teams edge, plus a significant coaching mismatch.
Shane Steichen is the Coach of the Year favorite, pulling all the right levers for Indy, while Raheem Morris and OC Zac Robinson are increasingly getting a lot of questions.
Steichen is 12-7 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite (63%), while Morris is 44% ATS as an underdog. Morris is 44% ATS against teams over .500, while Daniel Jones is 20-12 ATS (63%) against teams below .500 (like Atlanta).
Falcons vs Colts Prediction, Betting Analysis
When in doubt, back the favorite in these international games.
Removing Jaguars games (since they play overseas so often), the team favored in all other international games is 27-13 ATS (68%).
When the total is at least 44, that improves to 18-6 ATS (75%), and the underdog hadn't won in the last 20 meetings until the Chargers beat the Chiefs in Brazil in this year's opener.
According to Evan Abrams, teams coming off a loss as a favorite before an international game (like the Colts) are 15-9 ATS (63%); they're 12-5 ATS when both are in that spot.
Play Colts -6.5 below the key number of seven, and if you like, this is a nice setup for a Sunday teaser. I like Seattle as a teaser pairing — the Lions or Bills look like good options as well.
The Colts have scored at least 29 points in all seven of their wins this season, averaging 35.7 PPG with at least 38 in over half. Place a portion of your bet on Indianapolis' team total over 37.5 points at +440 (DraftKings) in case the Colts hang a crooked number on Atlanta.
Pick: Colts -6.5 (-105; Fanatics)
Additional Long-Shot Pick: Colts Over 37.5 Points (+440; DraftKings)
Spread
My bet for the NFL Berlin game is the Colts -6.5.
Moneyline
I have no play for either moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no bet for the game total.
