The late afternoon slate of Week 9 features a showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. Thisgame will broadcast live on CBS at 4:25 p.m. ET.
Continue below for odds and my Bills vs Chiefs parlay picks, which include the spread and two player props.
Bills vs Chiefs Parlay
- Under 52.5 (-110)
- Josh Allen Under 238.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Keon Coleman Under 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Parlay Odds: +300 (bet365)
Bills vs Chiefs Odds
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
- Bills vs Chiefs Moneyline: Chiefs -130, Bills +110
- Bills vs Chiefs Over/Under: 52.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Bills vs Chiefs Spread: Chiefs -1.5 (-115), Bills +1.5 (-105)
Bills vs Chiefs Preview, Parlay Picks
Under 52.5
After being bet up early in the week, the total has held tight at a key number.
However, there is still plenty of value in buying back on the under as the Chiefs and Bills profile to create a methodical offensive matchup.
Time of possession will be key in this game, and the Bills are the best team in the NFL at holding onto the ball, while the Chiefs are not far behind, ranking third in average time of possession. Both teams will want to keep the opposing offenses off the field as much as possible.
Each team should succeed in doing so as they hold big advantages on the ground. The Chiefs, who are 12th in yards per rush, face a Bills defense that is 31st in yards per rush allowed.
On the other side, it's a similar story.
The Bills run the ball the most out of any team in the NFL and have done so effectively, ranking second in yards per rush. The Chiefs are 18th in yards per rush allowed.
So while a duel between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen is the draw, the schemes of each offense make the under the hold value.
Josh Allen Under 238.5 Passing Yards
Now that we've established that both teams will drain the clock by succeeding on the ground, it's time to capitalize on who will be most negatively impacted.
The guy who sticks out the most is Josh Allen. We already know Allen won't throw the ball much, and that's been a theme this season as the Bills are last in pass play rate.
It should come as no surprise that Allen has only averaged 223 passing yards per game this season and has gone under this total in five of seven games this season.
This game will be notch No. 6 in that column.
Keon Coleman Under 39.5 Receiving Yards
If Josh Allen is not going to stretch the field often, then that makes Keon Coleman's window for success very small.
Coleman is a massive receiver and has proven to be a weapon in the red zone, but the Bills' minimal passing volume has capped his upside in other areas of the field.
Coleman has averaged just 5.6 targets per game, hauling in 70% of those targets on just 9.1 yards per reception, which has led to him staying under this total in five of seven games.
Coleman has stayed under in the same five games that Allen has this season. The two are heavily correlated.
Bills vs Chiefs Parlay
- Under 52.5 (-110)
- Josh Allen Under 238.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Keon Coleman Under 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Parlay Odds: +300 (bet365)
