Browns vs. Broncos Odds & Picks: Back the Home Underdog?

Browns at Broncos Odds & Picks

• Odds: Browns -3.5
• Over/Under: 39
• Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: FOX

Odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

With Joe Flacco injured, the Broncos are turning to quarterback Brandon Allen, making his first NFL start, against the Browns on Sunday.

Our experts break down this matchup, complete with analysis of the biggest mismatch and a staff pick.

Browns-Broncos Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Browns

Jarvis Landry (shoulder) and Odell Beckham (groin) have both been limited in practice this week, but there’s nothing to indicate that they’ll be ruled out on Sunday.

The Broncos ruled out Flacco (neck) early in the week, putting Allen in control of the offense. Tight end Noah Fant could also have some increased snaps with Jeff Heuerman (knee) expected to be out for this game. OL Ja’Waun James re-injured his knee last week and hasn’t been practicing yet, suggesting he could be set to miss this game. — Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Baker Mayfield vs. Broncos Pass Defense

Despite losing linebacker Bradley Chubb to a torn ACL, the Broncos defense has become one of the NFL’s toughest and is currently the third-most efficient in the NFL.

Denver is led by its fifth-most efficient pass defense, which has yet to allow an opposing quarterback to produce at QB1 performance this season. That is bad news for Mayfield, who only has one QB1 performance to his credit this season.

All-Pro cornerback Chris Harris Jr. has been a nightmare for opposing wide receivers. Harris has limited such top wideouts Keenan Allen (18 receiving yards), Tyreek Hill (74 receiving yards) and Allen Robinson (41 receiving yards) this season.

Mayfield will hope to find a way to jumpstart Beckham, who hasn’t eclipsed 56 receiving yards in four of his past five games. — Mike Randle

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

• Projected Spread: Browns -2
• Projected Total: 40.5

PRO System Match

The Broncos offense is struggling, to be kind. In the last three weeks Denver has scored 16, six and 13 points.

As a result, oddsmakers have opened Denver as 3-point home underdogs. More than 70% of spread tickets are on the Browns to cover as of writing (see live public betting data here). While this may seem like a good time to fade the Broncos inconsistent offense, history suggests otherwise.

Teams that haven't been able to put up a lot of points recently can be undervalued, especially against opponents that may not know their tendencies or personnel as well as their divisional rivals.

This creates an excellent first-half betting opportunity. Gamblers following this Pro System have gone 160-113-69 (59%) against the spread since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $3,326 following this strategy. — John Ewing

PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.

Expert Picks

Mike Randle:  Under 39

This features:

• A quarterback making his first NFL start
• Another quarterback leading the league in interceptions
• An underdog home team with the third-most efficient defense in the league

All of this adds up to betting the under. The Broncos have not allowed a top-12 quarterback finish from the opposition.

Meanwhile, the Browns rank 10th in sacks and face a Denver offensive line that has allowed the sixth-most sacks this season. First-time starting quarterback Allen with likely be under duress for most of the game.

The only concern with losing this bet is defensive touchdowns, which I will gladly risk.  The under is 3-1 on Denver home games this season. I would bet this line down to 37. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]