Bills-Jets Betting Preview: Has Buffalo Hit Rock Bottom Yet?

Betting odds: Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

• Spread: Jets -7
• Over/Under: 36.5
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS

Betting market: In terms of ticket count, this is currently Sunday's least-bet game on the board. Bets are split, but the Bills went from +8 to +7 pretty early in the week and moved as low as +6.5 at some books after it was announced that Sam Darnold wouldn’t be playing.

This is the lowest total of the NFL season, and only 11% of the money is on the over (find the live data here). — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The last time the Jets were listed as a favorite of seven or more points was Week 14 in 2015 (-8 vs. Titans).

Since 2003, teams that have won fewer than 40% of their games, like the Jets, and are favored by seven or more points have gone 54-63-2 (46%) against the spread, according to our Bet Labs data. — John Ewing

The Bills are failing to cover the spread by 6.4 PPG this season, tied for the third-worst margin in the NFL. Teams that are failing to cover by at least six points per game, cover the spread at a rate of 55.1% when listed as the underdog, including 156-113-1 ATS (58%) when listed as an underdog of a touchdown or more. — Evan Abrams

Both the Bills and Raiders enter Week 10 having lost their past three games by an average of more than three touchdowns per game. Teams in this spot are 44-35-1 ATS (55.7%) in their next game, profiting bettors 6.6 units, including 39-27-1 ATS (59.1%) as an underdog, profiting bettors 9.8 units.

When looking at the home and road splits in this spot, the distinction is glaring:

• At home: 22-24-1 ATS (-3 units)
• On road: 22-9 ATS (+11.6 units)
• Neutral site: 0-2 ATS (-2 units)

As a reminder, the Bills are playing on the road this week. — Abrams

Did you know? There have only been 15 other NFL games since the 2012 season to feature an over/under of 37 or fewer points. The over went 9-6 in those games. — Ewing

Which team is healthier? Jets (barely)

It’s unclear who will start under center for the Bills with Josh Allen (elbow) and Derek Anderson (concussion) uncertain for Sunday. Tight end Charles Clay (hamstring), backup running back Chris Ivory (shoulder) and first-round linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (concussion) also run the risk of missing Sunday’s game.

The Jets aren’t in much better shape, but they’re expected to welcome back No. 1 cornerback Trumaine Johnson (quad) in addition to linebacker Kevin Pierre-Louis (foot).

Josh McCown will start in place of rookie Sam Darnold (foot), but might not have the services of starting receivers Robby Anderson (ankle) or Quincy Enunwa (ankle).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

Biggest mismatch: Jets secondary vs. Bills passing game

The Jets are hopeful to welcome back No. 1 cornerback Trumaine Johnson (quad) this week, but they probably don’t need him against a Bills offense that hasn’t scored more than 13 points since pulling off a miracle in Minnesota all the way back in Week 3.

The Bills offense boasts a week-low 10.3 combined net yards per attempt in their matchup against the Jets defense, while no other offense is below even 11.5 yards. — Hartitz

DFS edge: It sounds like Allen (elbow) might not be ready to return, so the Jets will draw Derek Anderson (concussion) if he’s cleared from the protocol and if Allen is ultimately ruled out.

Otherwise, it’ll be Nathan Peterman.

Either way, it won’t matter. Defenses are averaging 16.33 DraftKings points per game with a +6.77 Plus/Minus and an absurd 77.8% Consistency Rating against the Bills this season, per our FantasyLabs trends tool.

Priced at $3,400 on DraftKings, the Jets defense is the second-cheapest unit to face the Bills this season. Be sure to check Friday injury reports for the final word on the starting quarterback — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Bills +7

Buffalo’s offense (10.4 PPG) is comically bad. The team hasn’t scored more than 13 points in a game since Week 3 and has managed to score only eight touchdowns this season. For context, the Rams and Saints combined to score 10 touchdowns in their Week 9 alone.

But bad offenses are often undervalued, especially after a blowout loss, which the Bills suffered against the Bears in Week 9, getting blown out 41-9.

Since 2003, teams following a blowout loss that score fewer than 20 points per game, like Buffalo, have gone 83-55-4 (60%) ATS as underdogs in their next game. I like the Bills here. — Ewing

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.