The Buffalo Bills (7-4) and Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) meet it in a key NFL Week 13 game on Sunday, November 30. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pa. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Bills are favored by 3.5 points on the spread over the Steelers (Bills -3.5), with the over/under set at 45.5. Buffalo is a -185 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Pittsburgh is a +155 home underdog.
Let's get into my Week 13 preview and Bills vs Steelers prediction.
Bills vs Steelers Prediction
- Bills vs Steelers pick: Steelers +3.5 (-110)
My Bills vs Steelers best bet is on Pittsburgh to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Bills vs Steelers Odds
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 45.5 -118o / -102u | -180 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 45.5 -118o / -102u | +145 |
Bills vs Steelers Week 13 Preview
The Steelers enter Week 13 as 3.5-point home underdogs against Buffalo, and there’s reason to believe they match up better than the market suggests.
It appears Aaron Rodgers will start, which represents a slight upgrade over Mason Rudolph — nothing monumental, but meaningful enough.
More importantly, Alex Highsmith is expected to return, and Joey Porter Jr. was limited in practice, but is trending toward playing.
The Bills, meanwhile, are showing signs of a broken team. The roster is flawed at this point.
They still have Josh Allen and a capable ground game that should move the ball against Pittsburgh. However, they won't have a full deck of cards.
Dalton Kincaid’s status remains uncertain, and right tackle Spencer Brown is out, which is a massive loss. Now, Dion Dawkins has also been ruled out. Following two years of extremely good injury fortune along one of the league's most reliable offensive lines, the Bills will now be without both starting tackles. That's obviously less than ideal in Pittsburgh against TJ Watt and company.
We've seen other teams, like Atlanta and Houston, dismantle Buffalo this season with edge pressure. Pittsburgh has the ability to do the same at home.
On the defensive side, the Bills will be without Terrel Bernard, and Ed Oliver remains on IR. Rookie Maxwell Hairston and safety Cole Bishop have shown flashes, but this is a coverage group that can still be attacked (17th DVOA). Keep in mind Buffalo has faced the league's third-easiest schedule to date.
Buffalo’s strength is its pass rush, but that advantage is somewhat neutralized by Rodgers’ ability to get the ball out quickly. Pittsburgh can also lean heavily on its own ground game against a Buffalo defense that ranks 31st in Rush EPA.
Bills vs Steelers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Pittsburgh will aim to rely on heavy personnel, run the ball, and target tight ends — an approach that consistently works against this Bills defense. No offense in the league has utilized a higher rate of heavy personnel more than the Steelers, which could spell trouble for a Buffalo stop unit that has allowed the most yards per play against those formations.
While Buffalo should show up with urgency coming off extended rest and a loss, the loss of their tackles and Pittsburgh’s potential matchup edges will likely keep this game tight.
Plus, you can say the same for Pittsburgh following its loss in Chicago. As most know by now, the Steelers have thrived in the underdog role under Mike Tomlin, who is the most profitable coach of all-time when catching points. Tomlin has gone 65-36-4 ATS (64.4%) as an underdog, including 22-8-3 (73.3%) ATS at home. Not too shabby.
Admittedly, I’m a bit worried about Rodgers’ hand — how he’s going to take the snap and whether it makes the offense more predictable. Is he just going to go purely out of shotgun?
He’s definitely getting the ball out quick either way, which will negate Buffalo's pressure.
It’s not an ideal way to run an offense, and that does concern me, but that said, I’ll take the hook here with Pittsburgh.
Pick: Steelers +3.5 (-110)
Spread
My Steelers vs Bills betting prediction is on Pittsburgh to cover the spread.
Moneyline
I like Pittsburgh to cover, but I won't be betting the moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no bet for the game total.
