Thursday Night Football Picks: How to Bet Chargers vs. Raiders

Thursday Night Football | Chargers vs. Raiders Picks

Regular readers are familiar with my weekly column — How to Bet Every Game & Every Team — so let's run the format back and find a Chargers vs. Raiders pick for each side on Thursday Night Football

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• Justin Herbert is the latest quarterback to get injured. He is done for the season, which means former North Dakota State quarterback Easton Stick will make his first start as a pro. Stick will be the 17th QB2 to make a start this season, meaning over half of all NFL teams have now used multiple starters at QB.
• On Sunday morning, when Herbert was still expected to play, the line for this game was Chargers -3.5 with a total at 42.5. Without Herbert, it's now Raiders -3 and the total has plummeted to 34.5. Effectively, books took an entire touchdown off the board for the Chargers.
• This division rivalry has been very close in recent years. Eight of the last nine games have finished within one score — two of them in overtime. The teams have split the season series in each of the past three seasons; the Chargers won the first meeting this fall.
• Keenan Allen is out for the Chargers. Josh Jacobs is also a question mark for the Raiders with an injury he picked up Sunday.

It's obviously a bummer we don't get to watch Herbert. But lucky for you, you happen to be reading one of the world's preeminent Easton Stick fans.

Stick went 49-3 in four seasons with my beloved hometown NDSU Bison, the most QB wins in FCS history. And if there's one thing Stick likes to do, it's take one drop step in shotgun near the end zone, pause a split second, and barrel up the middle for a touchdown. Stick rushed for 41 TDs at NDSU, including 17 in his final 15-0 season en route to a national title.

He ran for at least one score in 10 of his 15 games in each of his final two seasons. Stick has also run for five scores in 13 NFL preseason games, including two in three this year — and remember, you only play part of a preseason game. Stick's legs are his best attribute, for better and for worse. He's a real threat to run one in, just like Herbert did twice against the Raiders earlier this season.

Stick is +11000 to score two anytime TDs at bet365. Standard escalator logic compels us to play that — if he does get that first one, the odds are way off for a monster payout at 110-1 in case he somehow steals a second.

That's the whole point of an "escalator." Just like the moving staircase, the first bet is doing the work for us by moving the odds of the second.

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Patrick Graham's Raiders defense has quietly improved as the season has gone on, especially against the pass. Just from last week's result alone, the Raiders defense jumped from 18th to 12th in passing defensive DVOA, and 23rd to 16th overall.

Vegas' defense has also been far better at home, nearly top 10 by DVOA. Even the Easton Stick fan in me knows the Chargers offense will struggle mightily without Herbert, on top of the many other injuries at receiver and on the line.

Of course, the Raiders offense hasn't been much better either with Aidan O'Connell. Here we have two green quarterbacks playing on a short week for bad offenses, and an under just seems like the way to go. Both Chargers and Raiders unders are 10-3 on the season, and a barrage of trends point to the under, even at a low number.

Primetime unders are 61% over the last four years and 30-15 this season (67%). Games with a total of 37 or below are an awesome 76% to the under over the last four calendar years. Division games from Week 14 forward go under 58% of the time with a home favorite under a TD and 61% of the time when the home team has gone under in at least four of the last five games.

I always love a gross TNF under. Thursday night games with a total of 40 or below are 19-5 to the under since 2010, cashing 79% of the time. Let's make it 20-5.

I played under 34.5 as my Hot Read on Sunday night and still like it at 34 (or the highest number you can find). That looks like the right angle with two unproven quarterbacks on a short week.

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The fan in me has to get a little Easton Stick action in his first pro start, and honestly, that's just a really bad number with his tendency to tuck and run. Stick probably won't be great, and I don't expect the Chargers to score much, but the one thing he can do is run the ball.

Shop around because the odds are all over the place. I played at +1400, but anything above +400 is worth playing.