NFL Week 14 Odds, Picks: How to Bet Every Game, Every Team

NFL Week 14 Odds, Picks: How to Bet Every Game, Every Team

Regardless of your level of betting experience, this is the NFL preview for you. These bets are designed to give you something to cheer for, with the updated odds for every game and every team. So let's get to the picks!

Rams vs Ravens Odds, Picks

• Lamar Jackson popped up on the injury report late in the week with an illness. It sounds like he's fine and good to go, but it's still worth noting for a player this important. Jackson sometimes tends to struggle playing through illness or injury, so be careful.
• Weather will play a big role around the NFL this weekend as windy conditions are expected across the league. The East Coast looks like it'll get the worst of it, and this appears to be the most weather-impacted game with expected winds over 10 mph and a 75% chance of rain. The total has dropped from 44 to below 40 and may fall more before kickoff, but the spread has mostly stayed put.
• The Ravens have a significant rest advantage, at home coming out of the bye, while the Rams are coming off a physical game against a tough Browns defense, plus a cross-country flight. John Harbaugh is 60% ATS out of the bye week in the regular season, while Sean McVay and Matt Stafford have struggled against teams with an extra week to prepare and are a combined 6-15-1 ATS (29%).
• If you're looking to bet the Ravens, but get under the key number, you might consider playing just the first half. Baltimore is 10-2 ATS in the first half, best in the league, and Lamar Jackson is 66% ATS in first halves for his career. Home favorites of seven or less are also 57% ATS in the first half after a bye.

The Rams offense is really cooking now that it's finally healthy, and Kyren Williams has been one of the league's breakout stars. Sean McVay's offense is always at its best when the run game works first, opening up the play action and making all that movement work.

Williams has had a great nose for the end zone. He's scored 10 touchdowns in his eight games this season, with multiple scores in half of them and at least one TD in all but two. We shouldn't be getting a plus number on Williams to score a TD at this point. He's about as likely as anyone in the NFL in any given game.

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The Rams offense is good but worse on the road, 19th in DVOA vs. 6th at home, but the real mismatch here is the other side of the ball. The Rams defense is the worst unit on the field and simply lacks talent, and the Ravens offense should be able to get whatever it wants. Los Angeles also has the worst special teams unit in the league, always a problem against John Harbaugh, and the Rams' line could have problems against Baltimore's top-10 pass rush.

I love the weather impact on this game for Baltimore. The Ravens are built for this, winning with defense and an ugly old-school script, handing the ball off to Gus Edwards and a power rushing attack. You know who's not good in bad weather? Matt Stafford. Stafford is 7-14-1 ATS in games with 10+ mph wind (33%), and he's also 17-37-2 ATS (31%) from November forward against teams over .500.

The Ravens are well over .500 and are the much better team, rested and at home with bye week trends in their favor. Baltimore will get the job done.

This is my favorite side of the week. I love the matchup for Baltimore, and the trends love the Ravens too. I'm enjoying the Rams, but folks got a little too excited after they beat up on the terrible Cardinals and a Browns squad missing most of its offense.

Baltimore is a class or three above the Rams and I'll trust it rested at home in the weather. Be sure to grab the -7 if you can, but I don't mind -7.5 if necessary. It also sets up as a great teaser leg, or you can play just the first half to get under the key number.

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Jaguars vs Browns Odds, Picks

• Trevor Lawrence sprained his ankle Monday night, and this spread dropped six points from Jaguars -3 to +3, but the Jaguars say he'll start and play through the injury on a short week. The Browns cleared Dorian Thompson-Robinson from concussion protocol but also activated Joe Flacco, who will start Sunday. Jaguars backup C.J. Beathard also appears to be injured. We could get any combination of those four quarterbacks, as it wouldn't be a surprise to see the starter not finish for either side.
• But it gets worse! Both offensive lines are also badly compromised. Jacksonville is missing its best two linemen, Cam Robinson and Walker Little, and the Browns are missing both tackles. The Jags also lost slot WR Christian Kirk on Monday and are still short CB Tyson Campbell, and Myles Garrett is clearly not 100% for Cleveland. The Browns do get Denzel Ward back, and it looks like Amari Cooper is cleared too, so that's a bit of good news.
• But wait, there's more! This could be a weather game too. It looks like the rain may not come, but we're still expecting winds of 12 MPH or gustier.
• This game is an absolute mess and we probably should not bet it given how little we know right now… but doggonit, we're going to anyway.

This was actually my favorite under on the lookahead and I almost grabbed under 37 on Sunday but waited, hoping it might rise, and instead the total plummeted to 30.5 when Lawrence got hurt and the bad weather report came out. With both of those bits of news trending more positive, we were back in the middle at 33.5, where I was still willing to bet the under.

Now, with the Lawrence news, we're back to getting under 37.5. Lawrence's mobility should be very limited, and that's a big problem behind a bad line missing its best guys against this elite Browns pass rush. Cleveland's defense is way better at home, first in DVOA versus 19th on the road, and Jacksonville's defense has consistently been more reliable than its offense this season and should hold up against Flacco.

In games with 10+ MPH winds the last three seasons, the under is 126-68-1, a 64.9% hit rate. Unders have also continued to be extremely profitable at 37 or below the last four calendar years (78%). Take advantage of the bounce back on the total and grab the under.

This was set to be one of my favorite angles of the week, but now Amari Cooper is back, and we still don't know if Joe Flacco will get the start. If he does, I still like playing Elijah Moore, a teammate of Flacco's the last two season with the Jets. Moore had by far his best game as a Brown last week with season highs in targets (12) and yards (83), clearly showing chemistry with a QB he knew well the last two seasons.

Moore's best game as a professional came in Flacco's one start his rookie season, that 8/141/1 line his only 100-yard game of his career. He's had 141, 49, 41, 49, 11, and 83 yards in six Flacco starts, going over this line all but once. Obviously this is a different team, and Cooper will get his targets, but it's still a sneaky familiarity angle if Flacco is good to go.

As messy as this game is, I actually love both of these angles. This looked under all the way, even before the Lawrence injury and potential bad weather, and now that the total is back up from 30.5 to 33.5, I still think it's worth playing, especially after it pushed even higher with Lawrence officially active.

I love the Moore angle too considering his history with Flacco, but that meant we had to wait and make sure Flacco starts before we play that one. With Flacco a go, I may look for some gentle Moore escalators too. His Anytime TD odds at +450 (DraftKings) look juicy, and something like 75 yards and a score would be fun.

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Colts vs Bengals Odds, Picks

• This was supposed to be one of the big weather games with potential rain and winds, but as of Saturday, it appears things are calming down with minor winds and low chance of precipitation. Perhaps that's why betters are taking the over as the total has risen from 40 to 44 at most books.
• This might be something of a "Loser Leaves Town" game in the AFC playoff picture with the Colts at 7-5 and the Bengals at 6-6. The stakes are high, but both teams are probably a little worse than their record. The Colts are third in our Luck Rankings, while the Bengals rank fourth.

These teams are pretty even and both around league average, so it’s fitting that both are on the fringe of the playoff race playing in effectively a coin-flip game. But Indianapolis looks just a little bit better. The Colts are better coached and much better defensively.

Cincinnati ranks last in DVOA on first downs, so the Colts can play on the front foot. The Bengals have been especially bad in run defense, and the Colts have run the ball well even without Jonathan Taylor. Indianapolis should dominate this game in the trenches. The Colts rank top 10 in Run Block Win Rate and have one of the league’s best defensive lines, especially now that run stuffer Grover Stewart is back.

The Colts defense has also been drastically better on the road this season, top five by DVOA versus bottom five at home. Indianapolis can win this old school, in the trenches and with hard-nosed defense.

The Colts defense is built to limit receiver impact and take away big plays down the field, and that sets up a familiar script for Jake Browning. He’s thrown to his big weapons in key spots, especially Ja’Marr Chase, but there’s a whole lot of Joe Mixon both running and catching quick dump-off passes.

The Colts allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, and Mixon is a workhorse. I like playing the combo line for both rushing and receiving yards because it gives us a few outs. If Cincinnati is ahead, it'll pound the rock with Mixon. If the Bengals are behind, maybe he gets there on receiving yards. Mixon has gone over this line in two of the past three games with Browning.

The Bengals are likely a bit overvalued after their big upset win over the Jaguars. Double-digit underdogs that win by seven or less — like Cincinnati did — are just 15–26–1 ATS the following game (37%). Cincinnati’s big win on national television is likely buying us some value, and I don’t really love the Colts, but I do like them in this matchup.

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Lions vs Bears Odds, Picks

• It looked like weather would be a huge factor early with winds as high as 20-to-30 mph, but now it seems things may calm to around 10 mph. The total has reflected the weather report, opening at 46.5 on Sunday before plummeting all the way to around 40, then rebounding back to around 43.5. Notably, Justin Fields is 3-11 ATS (21%) in games with 10+ mph winds, the worst active QB.
• Chicago is at home and rested after a bye week. Home underdogs after the bye week cover 63% of the time in the first half, but road favorites of under six against rested opponents are 63% for the game and 65% in just the second half.
• The Bears have won seven of the past 11 in the rivalry, and these games are almost always close. Eight of the past 10 have finished within one score.

The Bears took a lot of heat for paying so much for Montez Sweat at the trade deadline, but Chicago's defense has been trending up in a huge way and ranks sixth in DVOA over the past five weeks. Chicago is stopping the run well, and the Bears can keep this Lions attack somewhat in check, especially considering how much Jared Goff tends to struggle outdoors in what could still be negative conditions.

This is not a game where the Lions will be expected to hang a big number, so the defense will have to bounce back and contain a lackluster Bears offense. In division games Week 14 or later, trends look under for games played outdoors (62% to the under) with a total between 40 and 47 (56%), or where the home team's under rate is at least 80% on the season (60%).

Be grateful for the uptick on the total, grab the best under you can find, and hope the wind comes back around to muck things up further.

We hit this exact bet a few weeks ago when Fields played the Lions, though we got over double the price then. Books are starting to wise up, but let's go back to the well again.

Fields ran for 104 yards his last game against Detroit, and also ran for 147 and 132 yards in the two games against the Lions a year ago. That's three straight times hitting this prop against Detroit, whose defense has cratered over the middle of the season and will only be worse without Alim McNeill.

This is a spot to skip the escalator and just play the outlier. Fields' rushing prop for this game is set at 60.5 yards, but he's only gone over that once all season, in that Lions game. Don't play the median outcome, just the long tail upside.

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I was leaning Bears and under early in the week, but money came in on both of those angles and robbed much of the value. I'll keep an eye on a possible live Lions bet, but otherwise don't need action here, unless we get wind (pun intended) of more significant weather.

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Buccaneers vs Falcons Odds, Picks

• This is a huge game in the battle for the NFC South. The Falcons lead the division by a game over both the Buccaneers and Saints and are 3-0 in division games, including a win against Tampa Bay. This is a game the Buccaneers need to have to stay alive in the hunt for the postseason.
• Both defenses got good injury news. Tampa Bay's star linebackers both got hurt last week. Lavonte David will go, but Devin White remains out, though David has been far better this year, especially against the run, and that's key in this matchup. Star CB A.J. Terrell also returns for Atlanta, a key name in a big matchup against Mike Evans. Both teams could be without top run stoppers, though. David Onyemata is out for the Falcons, and Vita Vea is questionable for the Bucs.
• Weather should not be a factor in this one as Atlanta can just close the dome if necessary.

The Falcons lead the division but the Buccaneers grade out as the better team. Tampa Bay ranks ahead of the Falcons in DVOA on offense, defense and special teams. The Buccaneers defense is the best unit on the field and has been stout against the run as long as Vita Vea has been around, and that's huge against an Atlanta squad that runs the ball as much as anyone. Tampa's pass rush is also trending up, and the Buccaneers defense has been far better on the road at third in DVOA versus 21st at home.

The Buccaneers can stop the run and slow the Falcons offense, and Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans should be able to attack a beatable pass defense. Both pass defenses have been bad lately, but only the Buccaneers have guys who can take advantage. From Week 14 forward, underdogs on a one-game winning streak like Tampa are 50-20-1 ATS (71%) in division matchups.

The Buccaneers look like a solid teaser option too, crossing the key numbers of three and seven. Tampa Bay has only failed to cover a spread that high against the best of the NFC (Philadelphia, Detroit and San Francisco), and Atlanta has only won by nine or more twice.

The Buccaneers definitely have the better defense, and the Falcons aren't exactly scaring anyone offensively or putting up big numbers. Atlanta will have to do its part defensively to win this one, and the script looks under. Both teams are 8-4 to the under this season, with Atlanta games averaging under 39 PPG and Tampa games under 40 PPG. Both the Falcons and Buccaneers have gone under 41 in eight of 12 games this season.

Todd Bowles road unders have been a smart angle historically at 30-17 to the under (64%), the second-most profitable coach in our Action Labs system. So too for Baker Mayfield when the total is below 44 (20-9 to the under (69%), the second-most profitable quarterback). There are also trends backing the under for late-season division matchups with a home favorite under a touchdown (57% to the under) and with totals of 40-47 points (56%).

And then there's my favorite stat, just the perfect summary for this awful NFC South. We've had six division games played so far between the Falcons, Buccaneers, Saints and Panthers. Not one of those games has even finished with 40 points. NFC South games are averaging 35.5 PPG this season, and the lowest one so far? You guessed it: Falcons-Buccaneers the first time around at just 29 points.

I love that NFC South stat, just a wonderful encapsulation of a bad division. The worst part about these terrible divisions we get every few years is that the teams are all so bad that we're forced to keep paying attention all the way to Week 18. I'm expecting a playoff vibe and a tough battle where both coaches settle for field goals in the red zone. Give me the under.

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Panthers vs Saints Odds, Picks

• Derek Carr has been cleared from concussion protocol and will start at QB, playing through rib and shoulder injuries he's still nursing. That seems to have stabilized the line for bettors, with money on the Saints pushing the line back slightly toward New Orleans at -6.
• That's the only good injury news for the Saints, though. The rest of the injury report is an absolute disaster. Chris Olave has an illness, a big problem since Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed are already out at WR. Stars Cam Jordan and Pete Werner are questionable for a defense already missing Marshon Lattimore and Marcus Maye, and do-everything weapon Taysom Hill is a question mark too.
• This division rivalry has been close in recent years, with eight of the last 12 matchups finishing within one score.

Are we sure this line is moving in the right direction? I'm not sure Carr's return is even positive news for the Saints, as poorly as he's playing, and the rest of the New Orleans injury report is an absolute disaster, right as the Panthers defense is finally starting to look pretty healthy. A typically great Saints defense has absolutely cratered in recent weeks, ranking second to last in DVOA over the last five weeks.

The Saints rank near the bottom of the league in Pass Block Win Rate, so Brian Burns and the Carolina pass rush can cause issues, while New Orleans' Pass Rush Win Rate ranks dead last, and that's good news for this porous Panthers line. The Saints have rated far worse at home this season and much worse in the first half too. That sets up a script for the Panthers to hang around and compete early, and if this team gets some confidence with the new coaching staff, watch out.

Books just don't seem to be pricing the Saints for what they are, a subpar, banged-up team. The Saints are 1-8-1 ATS as favorites this year, failing to cover by 5.9 PPG and losing six of those games outright. Derek Carr is 18-37-1 ATS (33%) as a favorite and has lost 15 of the last 24 outright. Dennis Allen is 5-16-1 ATS (24%), including 1-7-1 ATS as a division favorite.

The Panthers can compete with this team — and they can beat them too.

Alvin Kamara is about the only star still healthy for the Saints, and if New Orleans is going to win comfortably as the spread suggests, it'll almost certainly have to mean a big Kamara game.

The Panthers allow heavy RB yardage and the most rushing TDs to RBs of any team, and this pick only gets better if Taysom Hill ends up sitting and isn't a vulture threat. I don't like the Saints at all in this matchup, but the Panthers' run defense is atrocious, and the Saints don't have many other options, so if you do like the Saints, it wouldn't be crazy to put together some big Kamara escalators.

This line is baffling to me, but if books are going to keep making the Saints favorites, I'm just going to keep betting against them. The Panthers don't own their first-round pick and have every incentive to compete with a new coaching staff, and half the Saints team is in the hospital. I'm honestly not sure I even think the Saints are much better than the Panthers at this point.

I've been betting against Derek Carr and Dennis Allen as favorites all season, and I'm gonna be honest. I think the Panthers win this one outright, and if they do, this might be the last time we ever get to bet against Dennis Allen as a favorite, cuz he may not want to answer that phone on Monday morning.

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Texans vs Jets Odds, Picks

• This is another of the biggest weather-impacted games, with winds over 10 MPH and a two-thirds chance of rain as of Saturday. The total has dropped from 37, where we bet the under on the Hot Read on Sunday night, to 33 or below at most books. Money has also come in on the Jets, dropping them from 6- to 3.5-point underdogs.
• Zach Wilson is back! Never has an exclamation point felt so wrong. Last week's starter, Tim Boyle, has been cut, so I guess we're doing this Wilson thing again.
• Houston TE Dalton Schultz is out again, and breakout rookie WR Tank Dell is officially out for the season, once again leaving the Texans' surprisingly great passing attack badly compromised.

I probably don't need to tell you the Jets offense is terrible. They rank last both rushing and passing over the past five weeks and Zach Wilson isn't exactly going to fix that, especially with Houston's defense trending up. The Texans' defensive line should wreak havoc, and the Jets are averaging under 10 PPG over their past six games.

So can the Texans get to 24? You'd think so, but Houston has been at 22 or below in all but four games, and don't forget that the Jets defense is still the best unit on the field. The pass defense remains spectacular and has completely befuddled elite quarterbacks. C.J. Stroud has been incredible as a rookie, but he could be in for a rude awakening on the road.

This still looks like an under play, even at the reduced total. Unders at 37 or below over the past four calendar years are 28-7-1 (80%), and they're 16-4-1 (80%) with a total at 38 or below entering this week. All the better for the under if we get some weather to muck things up too.

The Texans defense tends to funnel the ball toward the middle of the field by design in something of an umbrella zone, and Houston has allowed more receptions to opposing tight ends than any team (81 total, 6.75 per game). The Texans have allowed 12 opposing tight ends to record at least three catches, one per game, and eight tight ends to hit at least five catches.

Conklin isn't much, but he's been a security blanket for Wilson and might get a bunch of looks since Wilson will likely be under pressure all game. Conklin has at least three catches in nine of 12 games (75%), but that goes up to 7-of-8 (88%) when Wilson starts and finishes a game.

Conklin averages 4.0 catches for 45 yards in those Wilson games, and he has at least five catches in three of the eight. That's a 37.5% hit rate, double the 18.2% implied at +450, so what the heck? Let's take the first ever Tyler Conklin escalator and have a day. I still like the under, but I'll ride with the Under 37 ticket we grabbed on The Hot Read on Sunday night.

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Bills vs Chiefs Odds, Picks

• There's plenty of recent history between these teams. Most memorable was the 13 seconds at the end of regulation in the playoff game that still haunts Buffalo. Patrick Mahomes is 3-2 against Josh Allen, including 2-0 in the playoffs, and this will be the fifth of the six matchups in Kansas City. The road team won all three previous regular-season matchups — so Allen is 2-0 in Kansas City in the regular season — and the games have been super high scoring, averaging 57 PPG.
• Neither team is particularly happy with how things are trending over the past five weeks. The Chiefs rank around league average offensively and below average passing, and they also rank last against the run by DVOA. The Bills are actually running the ball very effectively, and a defense that briefly cratered has rebounded somewhat to around league-average.
• Two of my favorite, most reliable trends go head-to-head, so good luck choosing. Josh Allen is incredible as an underdog at 16-9 ATS (64%) and a 35% ROI on the moneyline, but Patrick Mahomes as a three-point favorite or anything worse is 15-5-1 ATS lifetime (75%). He's also 16-3 straight up after a loss, so trends won't help us here.
• Buffalo is coming off a much-needed bye week, so the Bills have a major rest advantage. It looks like they'll also have a real health advantage. The Chiefs will be missing four starters in RB Isaiah Pacheco, LT Donovan Smith, LB Drue Tranquill, and S Bryan Cook, though it does look like LB Nick Bolton could return. With all those injuries, this one is close to a pick'em now.
• Both teams badly need this one. Kansas City needs to find some offensive rhythm and still hopes to contend for the AFC 1-seed, and Buffalo might need to run the table to make the playoffs.

We usually get points in this matchup, so that sets up well for prop overs.

Josh Allen rushing overs are the first thing I look for in every big Buffalo game. The pattern for years now has been the Bills saving Allen's legs in less important games, then dialing up designed runs and extra scrambles in the games that matter most. Allen has the most EPA on QB scrambles this season, and the numbers from recent years speak for themselves.

In 22 games against non-playoff teams over the past two years, Allen has run 6.4 times for 39.5 yards. In 16 games against playoff teams, those numbers spike to 8.7 rushes for 53.0 yards. This year, in four games against presumed playoff games, Allen's at 7.8 runs for 44.5 yards and over this line in three of the four, compared to just 4.4 carries for 20.5 yards in the other eight games.

This prop has been money against the Chiefs in particular. Allen has at least seven rushes and at least 32 yards in all five games against Kansas City, averaging 9.2 carries for 57.8 yards and going over this line in all five at 32, 59, 42, 68, and 88 yards. All the better if Chiefs linebackers Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill are still out. I'll play multiple units on Over 30.5 and also sprinkle 50+ yards at +320 with just a dash of hope on 75+ yards at +1425 (bet365).

Remember Gabriel Davis? Chiefs fans do. Davis lit up Kansas City for 201 yards and four scores in that aforementioned playoff matchup, and he could be in for another big game here. Trent McDuffie has done a great job against opposing WR1s, but the Chiefs rank bottom 10 against WR2s by DVOA. Check out some of the lines allowed by Kansas City this season to WR2s: Christian Kirk 11/110, Allen Lazard 3/61/1, Jordan Addison 6/64/1, Josh Palmer 5/133, Jerry Jeudy 2/50/1, DeVonta Smith 6/99 and Jakobi Meyers 6/79/1.

Davis has been feast or famine this season, so there's no use playing a median outcome. If he pops, he really pops, usually with at least one long touchdown. Davis has had at least five catches for 80 yards and a score in four games already this season. We can play an SGP for just 80 yards and an anytime TD at +1400 at PointsBet, and that looks badly mispriced compared to the rest of the market.

These teams are so evenly matched. Both offenses are obviously great, led by the best two quarterbacks in the league, and both power rushing attacks are underrated. The Chiefs have the better defense, but are trending down while the Bills are trending up. This game is being priced correctly as a coin flip and these matchups usually come down to whoever scores last.

One thing that's been consistent across the Mahomes vs. Allen duels: things tend to start out a bit slow, then pick up for a torrid fourth quarter finish. Buffalo's offense has been worse in the first half this season and Kansas City is better early, so that fits the script. Both teams have scored in the fourth quarter of all five matchups so far, with 10, 28, 14, 16 and 13 points in those games. That's an average of 16.2 PPG in the final stanza as Mahomes and Allen unleash everything in their arsenal.

The Bills rank top three in most receptions and yards allowed to opposing backs, and they've already allowed four RBs this season to catch at least five passes for 50 yards. Jerick McKinnon had 5/54 in that playoff shootout, and he's a dangerous weapon and a terrific pass blocker so he could be on the field a lot with Isaiah Pacheco out and Clyde Edwards-Helaire untrustworthy. I'll play McKinnon over 16.5 receiving yards (BetRivers), a ridiculously low line he's gone over in 6-of-10 games even in this quiet season.

McKinnon hasn't hit 50 receiving yards this year but did it four times the back half of last season and led the league's RBs in receiving DVOA and EPA, and he can get most of that on one long play with his speed, so I'm compelled to play the 50+ receiving yards at +1075 too (bet365) as a mispriced escalator.

I was all set to bet the Bills here and considered Buffalo +3 on The Lookahead, but waited hoping to snag a +3.5 and now it's gone the other way and squashed the value. I still like Buffalo, but I'm betting the Bills now by playing their props. I love the Allen rushing prop, and the Davis line looks way off too. By the way, if you want to get wild, Davis for 80 and a TD with 50 Allen rushing yards is +4500 at PointsBet.

The other way to play the Bills is by getting aggressive in the futures market. If Buffalo wins here, I'll like them again against the Cowboys next week. If they win both of those, everything changes. The Bills are still live to win the division in that scenario (+1700, Caesars), and if Buffalo wins out with a huge finish from Allen, he might still be live to steal the MVP at +5000 (BetRivers).

Buffalo is good, the defense has bounced back, and this still feels wide open. I love the McKinnon escalator too. I'm playing it all.

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Broncos vs Chargers Odds, Picks

• For once, we got a pretty clean injury report after waiting. Keenan Allen is off the injury report for the first time in weeks, and Broncos stud CB Patrick Surtain is a full go as well. The Chargers could also get WR Josh Palmer back, but that looks less likely.
• This rivalry has been close and remarkably even in recent years. The teams have split the series in six of the last seven, with the home team winning 11 of those 14 games, including each of the last seven. Five of those seven games have finished within three points, and eight of the last 12 were within eight.
• A barrage of trends back Denver here, but it's hard to know if they're still reliable. Trends like Russell Wilson as an underdog and coming off a loss, and they like Sean Payton in the same spots and as a division dog, but you'll have to decide if those trends are worth playing on a new team. The trends and the rivalry history could at least set up for a nice Broncos teaser spot.

Both of these defenses are terrible, especially against the pass, though the Broncos have been improving. The Chargers allow the most passing yards by a good margin, and they allow the third most fantasy points to opposing WRs and have been lit up game after game.

Denver's offense hasn't been as good on the road, but the Broncos should still get a few chances to score, and Sutton has been the guy when they do. He's scored a touchdown in nine of 12 games this season. That 75% hit rate would imply something like -300 on this line even without the good matchup, so a +220 line at 31% implied just seems way off. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

This certainly won't feel good as bad as the defensive metrics look for both teams, but Denver games often crawl along and limit possessions, and a number of trends really like the under here.

Games with a total between 39 to 45 are 56% to the under and 65% this season when the total drops at least a point like it has here, indicating that sometimes the steam is right. Unders have also been profitable in division matchups from Week 14 forward with a home favorite under a touchdown (57%), in games where the home team has gone under in at least four of the last five (60%), and in games with totals from 40 to 47 points (57%).

The Chargers are 9-3 to the under this season. Trust the numbers.

I don't trust either of these teams as far as I can throw them, so there's no way I'm touching either side here. But we've hit Sutton a few times, and I don't understand why his line is still this long, so let's give him a shot against this sieve of a Chargers defense.

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Seahawks vs 49ers Odds, Picks

• Huge injury news for Seattle: Geno Smith was a late-week addition to the injury report with a groin injury he picked up in practice on Thursday, which is why this line has spiked to 49ers -13.5 or higher (and to protect against teasers), as Drew Lock will get the start.
• Does this even count as a division rivalry, the way things are playing out right now? San Francisco won all three meetings last season and won again in Seattle on Thanksgiving, and these games haven't even been competitive. Average score these past four meetings: San Francisco 30, Seattle 14, with all four wins coming by over a touchdown.
• Seattle has a big rest advantage. The Seahawks played last Thursday on full rest, so they've had a little mini-bye here while the 49ers are coming off that huge game against the Eagles.
• Give Seattle the desperation advantage too. The Seahawks have lost three in a row and play the Eagles next week. Their postseason hopes appear to be fading quickly.
• If you're thinking about betting on Christian McCaffrey to score a TD, don't bother. Seattle does indeed allow the second-most rushing TDs to running backs and the fourth-most fantasy points, but McCaffrey's line has risen to a laughable -350 or worse and just isn't worth playing at that price.

Look, I'm not going to pretend to make an actual case for Seattle. You watched the games against San Francisco. These games have been over by the end of the first quarter, and betting against the 49ers feels like stepping in front of a speeding train right now. But that's exactly why there's value on the number.

Trends love this spot for Seattle. In division games Week 14 and later, an underdog that lost by 8-to-20 points in the previous matchup between two teams is 58% ATS in the rematch, and 'dogs that failed to cover by 7-to-14 points are 59% ATS in the rematch. Pete Carroll is 63% ATS as a division 'dog and 61% ATS after a loss.

Close your eyes, swallow hard, and bet the trends for a desperate team in a good situational spot.

This is unquestionably a terrible matchup for Seattle. The Seahawks can't tackle, a slight problem against the 49ers, andDrew Lock won't get much help from his offensive line, especially against a rabid top-five 49ers pass rush. Seattle is bad at defending the middle of the field and bad on early downs. It's a nightmare matchup.

The Seahawks rank 24th in DVOA over the past five weeks, and while the defense has been bad, the offense has struggled mightily too (24th). They're struggling to run, even if Kenneth Walker returns, and Smith hasn't fared well in this matchup. The Seahawks have scored 7, 13, 23, and 13 in the past four games against San Francisco. That's under this team total in three of the four, and the one over came on a garbage-time TD in the final two minutes.

San Francisco is going to score, but with a spread this high, a 49ers cover will likely mean the defense showing up too. Might as well just play direct and take the team total.

This is an awful matchup for Seattle, but the situational spot and trends love the Seahawks and the line is so inflated that I just can't be bothered by it. I expect Seattle to lose without much of a fight, and that could hurt its line for next week, so I'll play by grabbing the Eagles next Monday night on The Lookahead when they come to Seattle.

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Vikings vs Raiders Odds, Picks

• As expected, Justin Jefferson is finally off the IR and looks like a full go. He'll be catching passes from Josh Dobbs, who returns to the starter role after reportedly having to win the job during the bye.
• Both teams are rested, coming out of the bye week, so that should set up for a relatively clean game.

This game should tilt heavily toward the defenses, especially with two backup quarterbacks starting. Minnesota's defense continues to impress under Brian Flores, and the run defense has been elite lately, especially important the way the Raiders have emphasized the run under Antonio Pierce.

On the other side of things, the Raiders defense has improved a ton under Patrick Graham as the season has gone on. Vegas ranks 13th in DVOA on defense over the last five weeks, including top 10 against the pass, so this defense is rapidly improving and should now get a healthier Maxx Crosby too. The only weak spot on either defense is the Raiders' run defense, but Minnesota can't run the ball anyway.

Games featuring a home underdog have gone under 61% of the time the last three seasons, and both teams are 9-3 to the under this season.

Follow the trends. The Raiders are 4-8 ATS in the second half this season. The team has not closed games well, and that backs some historic trends for teams coming out of a bye week as both these squads are. Home underdogs after a bye are 52-31-13 ATS (63%) in just the first half, while road favorites after a bye are 31-18-1 ATS (63%) in the full game and 65% ATS in just the second half. The trends say the Raiders start strong but fade, and the Dobbs has been a slow starter but a strong finisher too.

Let's be honest — this is really the perfect script for the Raiders anyway at this point. Look good out of the bye, play well, lead at the half, lose and keep the draft pick looking good.

Even with all the weather-impacted totals around the league, this is my favorite total on the board and a spot I've been eyeing since lines popped Sunday. Both defenses have the advantage here, especially against Aidan O'Connell and Joshua Dobbs.

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Sunday Night Football: Eagles vs Cowboys Odds, Picks

• Needless to say, this is a monster game. The Cowboys need this to have any real chance at the division and a home game in the playoffs, even the 1-seed, while an Eagles win would keep Philadelphia firmly in control of its 1-seed destiny at the top of the NFC and right the ship after the 49ers loss.
• Dallas was 2.5-point favorites on The Lookahead last week when we played the Cowboys, but Philadelphia's loss pushed the line past the key number of 3 to the other side at -3.5, a pivotal flip. The total rose from 48 on Sunday to as high as 53 but has now ticked back to around 52.
• Could that Eagles loss and negative momentum provide some value on the line? Teams with at least a 60% win rate coming off a loss by 20 or more are 82-40-1 ATS (67%) over the last couple decades, including an untouchable 40-7 ATS (85%) between Weeks 8 and 15 when we know which teams are good, but before those great teams are resting for the postseason.
• Both teams are relatively healthy, though the Eagles are still looking to get some defensive names back into the lineup. Philadelphia TE Dallas Goedert finally makes his return, and his absence has really limited the Eagles' versatility. Both teams rank in the bottom quartile of the league in DVOA against opposing tight ends.
• The home team has won nine of the last 10 in this rivalry, and these teams have split the home-and-home in eight of the last 10 years. Philadelphia won at home. Dallas's turn?

It's remarkable the difference between these teams' first and second halves.

Dallas has consistently been a first-half tem. The Cowboys rank 5th in DVOA in the first half but just 17th in the second half, and the Cowboys are especially deadly in the second quarter. Dallas is 9-3 ATS in the first half compared to just 5-7 for Philadelphia. The Eagles are a second-half team. They're 9-3 ATS there, and they leap from 20th to 3rd in Offensive DVOA and from 24th to 12th in Defensive DVOA.

The Eagles have come from behind to win over and over this season, and the Cowboys just love to leave the door cracked and let Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott screw it up late. The headlines practically write themselves. At +950, that's too juicy to not play.

As for the Jalen Hurts anytime TD, that's basically an auto-play at -130. Hurts has a rushing touchdown in nine of 12 games this year, so that's a 75% hit rate versus under 57% implied by -130. He has as good a chance to score as anyone in what should be one of the highest scoring games of the weekend. You can play both angles together at FanDuel for +1291 if you like.

Philadelphia's defense is the weakest unit on the field, particularly its pass defense. The Eagles defense ranks 21st in DVOA and 24th against the pass, and Dallas's offense has been on fire with Dak Prescott firing the ball all over the field since the bye week.

The Cowboys' pass rate over expectation has spiked, and Prescott is averaging 38 pass attempts per game over the last five and had a season-high 44 passes against the Eagles when they played last month. Prescott has been especially deadly on late downs, and Philadelphia's defense ranks dead last on third downs. For better or for worse, this game will be in the hands of Dak Prescott. Most of his props are priced accordingly, but there's value simply betting on volume with over 37.5 pass attempts.

Expect plenty of that volume to be directed toward CeeDee Lamb. Philadelphia ranks top three in fantasy points allowed to both quarterbacks and receivers. Lamb has seen a huge spike in production since the bye himself as Dallas moves him all over the field. He had 11 catches for 191 yards against the Eagles last month and had 10 catches for 120 yards and two scores in the previous meeting. Philly's corners simply are no match for Lamb right now, and they've allowed more receptions and TDs to receivers than any team.

Lamb's props are juiced too, but he's had at least 11 catches and 116 yards in five games already this season. That's almost half of them, so playing 10+ catches for 100+ yards looks like a great angle at +525, implied 16%. You can sprinkle a 10/150 SGP at +1200 (PointsBet) as an escalator if you like. He's done that three times too, obviously including the last Eagles game.

The logic for the second quarter Cowboys angle is effectively laid out in the Eagles' section. Dallas is at its best in the second quarter, and Philly as at its worst.

No pick on a side is a bummer here, but that's because I'm already on Dallas -2.5 from The Lookahead line a week ago and I think the line looks about right now that it's flipped to the other side of the key number. I'm confident the Cowboys are the better team, but Philadelphia is specifically good at the little edges McCarthy always leaves there for the taking, so every point matters.

If you do like Dallas, attacking the futures market is probably a better investment. A win here would very likely make Dak Prescott the MVP favorite by Monday morning. I'll invest in the game by playing CeeDee Lamb's props and hope for another huge game since the Eagles just don't have an answer.

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Monday Night Football: Packers vs Giants Odds, Picks

• Somehow, neither of these teams has lost in 29 days. That would never have seemed possible a month ago, but I guess that makes this a marquee matchup, with the Packers now solidly favored to make the playoffs.
• It looks like the ugly weather weekend will spill over into our Monday night doubleheader. It looks like a cold and windy night in the Big Apple, with evening temperatures in the 40s and winds over 10 MPH.
• The Giants have a rest advantage coming out of the bye, though the Packers get the extra day into Monday and played last week with extra rest after Thanksgiving, so that mostly evens things out.
• The Packers will be without speedy WR Christian Watson, who re-injured his hamstring after finally breaking out the last few weeks.

The Packers are clearly the better team, especially as Tommy DeVito continues to start for the Giants. DeVito may have won a couple games, but that was against Washington and New England. Green Bay is beating real opponents — the Chargers, Lions, and Chiefs — and genuinely looks like a playoff team, with Jordan Love playing the best ball of his career.

Green Bay's pass rush is also trending up of late, and that could be the key advantage here against a Giants offensive line that's been miserable all season. The Packers line has been great at pass blocking too and should hold up against Wink Martindale's heavy pass rush. Green Bay ranks fifth in DVOA over the past five weeks, including top 10 in defense. Road Monday night favorites of between three and seven points are 59% ATS. This also sets up as a solid teaser spot, even on the road, if you trust the Packers.

Even with a recent downswing, primetime unders continue to be very profitable. They're still 61% the last four years and 69% this season, and games featuring a home underdog have gone under 61% of the time the last three seasons. The windy weather also favors the under, with games featuring 10+ MPH winds a ridiculous 126-68-1 to the under (64.9%) the last three seasons.

We shouldn't fear the low total either, since games at 37 or below have still gone 28-8-1 to the under (78%) the last four calendar years. The Giants defense has been far better at home, actually top 10 by DVOA, and Giants unders are 9-3. The Packers typically play slow, so that helps too. Go with the under.

I lean Green Bay, but it's still a young team on the road on Monday night, and the fact that I like the under also makes 6.5 points a lot. I'll stick with all those under trends, just far too many and way too strong to ignore, and it's not like we're just not gonna bet a Monday night doubleheader in December.

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Monday Night Football: Titans vs Dolphins Odds, Picks

• More weather updates! It will be a balmy 65 degrees in Miami, but it still looks windy, with winds around 12 MPH expected Monday night.
• Be careful about teasing the Dolphins. Many big favorites end up at -13.5 on the spread specifically as teaser protection, since a teaser only gets you to Miami -7.5 and doesn't cross that important key number, robbing you of most of the potential teaser value. That said, six of Miami's nine wins have come by at least 14 points anyway.
• Don't look now, but Miami's defense may have caught up or even passed its offense. The Dolphins rank third in both passing and overall defense by DVOA the last five weeks. It's pretty clear that the healthy return of Jalen Ramsey and a little time to figure out Vic Fangio's system has set this defense in motion.

An under against the mighty Dolphins offense? Really?

Miami's defense is really good now, and it's been even better at home, but the Dolphins are bad against outside runs, and that's one area the Titans have been elite running the ball. Tennessee is also much better in the first half, where the Dolphins defense hasn't been as good, and we know Mike Vrabel thrives in the underdog role. Could the Titans run the ball early, chew up clock, and at least keep things close by limiting possessions and points?

Besides, it's a primetime under. Even with some of the primetime overs lately, unders are still very profitable for the season at 69% hit rate, and primetime unders are 61% the last four years. The windy conditions also favor the under, with games featuring 10+ MPH winds a ridiculous 126-68-1 to the under (64.9%) the last three seasons.

What an absurdly low price for a guy to get 150 receiving yards, a career day for most, but guess what? We're betting it anyway, windy weather and Hill injury and all!

The Titans are a pass funnel, and they've already allowed seven 100-yard WR games this season. Hill has eight 100-yard games already himself, which is why his actual receiving yards line is as high as 110.5 at some books, a completely ridiculous and unprecedented number.

But that's what happens when a guy is still chasing 2,000 yards this late in the season, and that's exactly why we're betting it. Why not run up some extra yards against a bad pass D when you're chasing an NFL record and an OPOY win? Hill has six games with at least 146 receiving yards, so that's literally half his games this season.

I'm typically not too interested in a game with such a wide spread, and the Dolphins offense is too scary for me to get particularly excited about an under. I'm a sucker for a good Tyreek Hill bet though, so keep an eye on the app and maybe we'll roll over some of our Tyreek winnings from last week for another Hill play Monday night if he looks like a full go and the weather isn't too bad.

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• Ravens -7 (Bet to -7.5)
• Vikings/Raiders under 40.5
• Panthers +6 and Panthers ML +220
• Bucs/Falcons under 41
• Colts +2.5 (Bet to Colts -1)
• Josh Allen over 30.5 rushing yards | 50+ yards (+320) | 75+ (1425)
• Gabriel Davis 80 receiving yards & anytime TD SGP (+1400)
• Jerick McKinnon over 16.5 receiving yards | 50+ yards (+1075)
• Bills/Chiefs: both teams to score in 4th quarter
• Tyler Conklin over 2.5 receptions | 5+ catches (+450)
• Jaguars/Browns under 33.5
• Elijah Moore over 38.5 receiving yards (if Flacco starts)
• Packers/Giants under 37
• Courtland Sutton anytime TD (+220)
• CeeDee Lamb 10 catches & 100 receiving yards SGP (+525) | 10/150 SGP escalator (+1200)
• Week 15 Lookahead: Eagles -4 at Seahawks