Top 2 Chiefs-Chargers Prop Bets & Picks for MNF
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Mike Williams
- Justin Bailey identifies top prop bets for Monday Night Football between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers.
- Find his picks for Mike Williams' reception and receiving yardage props below.
NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.
This is where the FantasyLabs Player Props tool comes in handy.
We leverage prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
Note that unders have typically done the best in our tool. Last season unders were profitable even with grades below 10, with all hitting at a 59.0% rate. Don’t take our word for it, though: Our tool keeps track of its record at all times, so you can query performance of any time frame.
Chiefs vs. Chargers Prop Bets
Now let’s take a look at two of the top props worth considering for the Monday Night Football contest between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers.
Chargers WR Mike Williams
THE PICK: Under 4.0 Receptions (-115); Under 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
We’ve got a two-for-one here with the under on both of Williams’ props.
Admittedly, it’s scary to target the under on a game that opened with a total of 49 and has since bet up to 53. That said, there are a couple of reasons I am doubling down on these props. For starters, the Chiefs have been good against the pass this season, ranking fifth in pass DVOA and 31st in rush DVOA (per Football Outsiders).
But more importantly, Williams is seeing just 14.5% target share over the last four weeks and averaging 4.5 targets per game over that timeframe. If Williams continues to see that usage, or even exceed it, he’d need to convert almost all of his targets to hit the over on this prop.
The odds of him converting every target into a reception seem low considering he sees such low-percentage throws, as evidenced by his 16.0 average depth of target (aDOT) this season. So far, he’s converted just 57% of his targets into receptions this year.
On the flip side, the under on his receiving yards will produce more of a sweat because he does see such deep targets. It might just take one or two long receptions to ruin that bet. He’s already exceeded 59.5 yards in four of his games so far.
However, Kansas City has been excellent at defending the deep ball. On passes 15-plus yards downfield, they’re allowing a 36.11% completion rate, which ranks fourth in the league (per Sports Info Solutions).
There are some books that have 4.5 receptions for Williams if you don’t mind paying the extra juice, but I’ll likely play the 4.0. I’d bet each prop to -130.