Super Bowl Spread, Picks: Our Best Bets on Chiefs-Eagles
Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: State Farm Stadium.
- We have betting analysts on both sides of the Super Bowl spread and moneyline.
- Some see Patrick Mahomes as too much for the Eagles to handle, while other value Philly's interior dominance.
- Check out our staff's favorite Super Bowl spread and moneyline picks below.
Our staff is close to split with its Super Bowl picks on the spread and moneyline.
We have plenty on both sides of the Super Bowl spread, which settled quickly at 1.5 after some heavy action came in on Philadelphia.
Check out our betting analysts' favorite Super Bowl picks below.
Chiefs vs. Eagles Picks
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Stuckey: After the injuries Kansas City suffered in the AFC Championship Game, I understand why the Eagles took early money. However, I still make the Chiefs a slight favorite, so I happily backed them on the moneyline last week.
I get the sense we’ll look back at this line in 10 years and ask, “Why was the greatest quarterback of all time an underdog in the Super Bowl?”
I just feel like the market is overvaluing Philadelphia, particularly on defense. The Eagles have a phenomenal (and deep) pass rush to complement a talented secondary. However, I believe the Chiefs can exploit a few chinks in the armor on the back end.
Philly played one of the easiest regular season schedules in the NFL. It then only had to take out a limited Giants offense and the 49ers without a quarterback en route to the Super Bowl.
The defense also benefited from playing from ahead most of the season. That allowed the pass rush to relentlessly pin its ears back.
I expect the Chiefs to come out with a pristine early script, giving them a decent chance of jumping out to an early lead. That’s massive against a team that didn’t have to play from behind too often, which enabled them to rely on their dominant rushing attack and pass rush.
Consequently, the Eagles may have to rely more on Hurts dropping back to throw in known passing situations. First, I still don’t fully trust him in those situations. Second, he still could be hampered by a shoulder injury which has caused recent accuracy issues.
You can also count on savvy defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who thrives in these marquee matchups, having many different disguised looks. That could bait the still relatively inexperienced Hurts into a critical mistake or two.
Even if the Chiefs do fall behind early, I’d still have the greatest trailing quarterback in the league in my back pocket. I certainly won't panic if down two scores in the first half, which would be a death sentence for most teams against this Eagles squad.
I could go on ad nauseam about this particular matchup, but I’m sure you’ve heard it all by now.
Ultimately, this comes down to a bit of value in my number, but mainly just trusting Mahomes (who threw for 5 touchdowns in a 42-30 victory against this defense last year) to win this game. I could do many worse things with my money than back one of the all-time greats as an underdog.
In case you have been living under a rock, there’s a reason Mahomes is 7-1-1 ATS as a pup. Even more impressive, including the postseason, he owns absolutely ridiculous 18-6-1 ATS (75%) mark as an underdog or favorite of a field goal or less. He's essentially a gold mine when you need him to win.
Pick: Chiefs Moneyline |
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Anthony Dabbundo: Much of the discussion over the last couple weeks has centered on the health of one of the two quarterbacks in the Super Bowl — Patrick Mahomes and his right ankle.
In my view, the public (and market) is overrating Mahomes' injury and underrating Jalen Hurts’ right shoulder.
Hurts wasn’t effective in the Week 18 game against the Giants, and then he was middling at best against the Giants in the playoffs before posting poor passing numbers in the NFC Championship Game victory over the 49ers. It went under the radar because the Eagles won with ease, but Hurts' Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) was in the negative in all three games since returning from the injury that sidelined him for two weeks.
Philadelphia had the benefit of a friendly path to the Super Bowl given Brock Purdy exited due to an injury on the first drive of the NFC Championship game. The Eagles defense has largely gone untested against elite pocket passers this season. And when they have been tested, the defense hasn’t held up to its elite standard.
In Week 12 against the Packers, Aaron Rodgers left with a hand injury but Green Bay still managed to put up 33 points. Dak Prescott dropped 40 on them in Week 16 and Jared Goff led Detroit to 35 in Week 1. Two of those three games were Eagles victories, but those came with a healthy Hurts. Mahomes will challenge the Eagles secondary, and based on pass block win rate, the Chiefs will be able to slow down the Eagles' dominant pass rush.
Kansas City is first in pass block win rate and Mahomes has the lowest sack rate under pressure in the NFL this season. This is not the Chiefs-Bucs Super Bowl redux, when Kansas City couldn’t block Tampa Bay with its porous offensive line.
This matchup is largely a chess match between Andy Reid’s innovation and Jonathan Gannon’s passive scheme defensively. The Chiefs are likely to see the Eagles dare them to run, but Kansas City may have found something in Isiah Pacheco — a hard-nosed runner who can keep the chains moving.
Mahomes and Reid will force the Eagles to go score for score with them to stay in this game, and Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo isn’t going to let the Eagles run the ball at will. He’ll bring run blitzes and force Hurts to beat K.C. with his arm from the pocket.
Early in the year, I’d maybe favor the Eagles to do that. But given his recent regression — potentially due to injury — Hurts is likely going to be less efficient than the market projects him to be. For that reason, Kansas City should be favored to win Super Bowl 57 and I’d bet them at any underdog price to lift the Lombardi Trophy.
The Eagles may have the better talent overall, but the Chiefs have the experience up and down the staff and roster, and a quarterback who will go down as one of the best to ever do it.
Pick: Chiefs +1.5 |
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Tony Sartori: In what should be a tremendous Super Bowl matchup, these two clubs are about as even as you can get. Offensively, the Chiefs ranked five spots higher than the Eagles in regular season DVOA.
Defensively, Philadelphia ranked five spots higher than Kansas City in regular season DVOA. In terms of total weighted DVOA, the Chiefs finished two spots higher than Philly.
Where do the Eagles have the advantage in this game? The trenches, in regards to both the offensive and defensive lines.
Where do the Chiefs have the advantage in this game? QB, head coach and experience.
Kansas City's edge in the QB and HC departments is certainly not an indictment on Jalen Hurts and Nick Sirianni, who are one of the better QB/HC tandems in football. But they are not on Mahomes and Reid's level, at least not yet.
It is also worth noting that the Eagles’ path to this game was far easier than the Chiefs', beating the Giants in the divisional round and a QB-less 49ers in the Conference Championship. In fact, the Eagles had the advantage of primarily playing a weak NFC all season, which only had two real contenders between themselves and the 49ers, the latter of which lost to the Eagles without the most important position on the field.
Meanwhile, the AFC featured two juggernauts alongside the Chiefs in the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals. While the Eagles have the advantage between the trenches and in the secondary for this game, give me the team with the better coach, QB, and more experience in this spot at plus-money.
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Chris Raybon: As you would expect in a game with such a short spread, both teams have a number of things working in their favor.
The case for the Chiefs:
- Better quarterback
- Better coach
- Better punter
- Prior Super Bowl experience
- Mahomes is 18-6-1 ATS as a dog/pick'em/favorite of -3 or less
The case for the Eagles:
- Better O-line
- Better run game
- Advantage in pass-catcher matchups on offense
- Better pass rush
- Better secondary
- More margin for error on both sides of the ball
- More likely to benefit from officials
- 15-1 SU with Hurts as starter
- The line opened at Chiefs -2 and is now Eagles -1.5, a move of 3.5 points. The line has moved at least 1.5 points 18 times in Super Bowl history, and the team it moves towards is 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS.
I don't show a massive edge, but I do think the Eagles are more likely to win and this would lean toward that side inside the key number of 3.
If the Chiefs are able to score first, they will be more likely to stay with the running game, which could shorten the game. That could allow the more conservative Reid — the more likely of the two coaches to settle for a field goal– to dictate the game.
If the Eagles are able to get a lead, Reid is more likely to abandon the run. And if the Eagles go up big, they have no incentive to take their foot of the gas in the second half like they've done for most of the year. The Chiefs have been held below 20 points just once this year and is more likely to mount a comeback than anyone else the Eagles have faced.
Pick: Eagles -1.5 | Bet to -2.5 |
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Brandon Anderson: Patrick Mahomes might indeed be the best to ever do it, but football is a team game and there’s a reason no MVP has won the Super Bowl that same season this century.
Kansas City has the better quarterback but Philadelphia has the better run game, receiving corps, offensive line, pass rush, pass defense and in-game coaching. That’s why the Eagles are favored, even against Mahomes, and it’s why they’re the right pick.
Football is still won and lost in the trenches, and that’s advantage Philly.
The Eagles defensive line features Haason Reddick with at least one sack in eight of the last 10 games plus Josh Sweat, Brandon Graham, and Javon Hargrave all with 11 or more sacks. The Eagles had the best sack rate on pass plays (11.5%) not just this season but by any team this century, as far ahead of second as No. 2 was ahead of No. 29, lapping the league.
Kansas City’s interior line is elite, but the key matchup in this game is Chiefstackles Orlando Brown and Andrew Wylie against those edge rushers. The Chiefs faced only one team all season in the top quarter of the league in pressure rate. Also, Mahomes is on a bad ankle likely to get worse as the game progresses. If Philadelphia gets a lead, those edge rushers can come after Mahomes all game.
On the other side, the Eagles’ offensive line is the best in the league. The interior of the line led by Jason “The Other” Kelce can handle Kansas City’s one elite defender Chris Jones, and Kelce, and the gang are built to shred a vulnerable Chiefs run defense. The Eagles led the league in rushing DVOA, EPA, and explosive plays. The Chiefs played only two games all season against a team with a positive rushing DVOA; they lost both and had the No. 30 DVOA in those games, and they rank dead last in ESPN’s run-stop rate.
Sometimes, the best defense against Patrick Mahomes is a good run offense. Philly’s rushing attack is versatile and creative. The Eagles can run with power, get to the edge, or confuse the defense with run-pass options. They find what works and mash the same concept until opponents stop it. That leads to those long 14-play, 82-yard drives that drain the clock, and it keeps Mahomes on the sidelines and all those Eagles pass rushers rested.
There’s no question Philadelphia had an easy path to the Super Bowl, both in the regular and postseason, but I’m not sure the Chiefs are particularly tested either. The defense faced only four offenses all year ranked top 13 in DVOA; the Eagles rank No. 1 with Hurts. Kansas City has the league’s worst red-zone defense against an elite red-zone offense, and the Chiefs are poor against short passes where Hurts has thrived.
It’s never fun betting against Mahomes, but it’s worth remembering the Chiefs have been outscored 51–19 in seven of eight Super Bowl quarters under Mahomes. K.C. is one fourth-quarter comeback against the Niners away from a very different narrative here.
I trust the Eagles to do what they’ve done all season and grab a first-half lead before dominating the clock late.
I love Philly halftime/full-time, with the better team outplaying the individual once again as the Eagles win the Super Bowl. You can make that bet with the Quickslip below.
Pick: Eagles Halftime-Full Time Parlay (+142) |
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