2023 Super Bowl Props: Jalen Hurts, Dallas Goedert, Patrick Mahomes, More
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2023 Super Bowl Props
With one more game left to make NFL picks, welcome to our favorite Super Bowlprops.
Our experts have Chiefs vs. Eagles props all over the game. We even have multiple props on kickers!
Check out our staff's favorite Super Bowl props below, then sit back and enjoy the game.
Super Bowl Passing Props
Patrick Mahomes
SGP: 250+ Passing Yards & Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-130)
PropBetGuy: On the Chiefs side, I’ll be backing the quarterback in the more traditional sense than I will Hurts.
Mahomes cleared this dual-line in nine of 16 full regular-season games and in nine of 12 career playoff games he played fully. His ankle injury didn’t seem to impede him much on his way to 326 passing yards and two touchdowns against the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game.
Yes, the Eagles pass defense is really good statistically. However, they’ve notably had a schedule that hasn't featured most of the NFL’s top passing offenses. Philly’s vaunted pass rush will also be facing off against a Chiefs offensive line that ranked first in pass blocking win rate at 75%, per Next Gen Stats.
While this is a bet on the brilliance of Mahomes, it’s equally banking on Andy Reid and the Chiefs coaching staff. With two full weeks to prepare, I trust Reid to cook up a masterful offensive game plan that rests on the right arm of his signal caller.
Pick: PropBetGuy's Mahomes Same-Game Parlay |
Patrick Mahomes
To Throw Interception — Yes (-110, BetMGM)
Blake Krass: Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL and might go down as the most talented quarterback to ever play the game. However, what makes him great is that he isn’t afraid to take significant risks, especially in big games.
In both of his career Super Bowl appearances, Mahomes has thrown multiple interceptions.
One game was a wire-to-wire losing effort against the Buccaneers, but the other was a Super Bowl win. In both of those scenarios, Mahomes has thrown not one, but two INTs. I went back and watched the highlights of those two Super Bowls and all four were on hero-ball throws.
Mahomes also threw two INTs in K.C.'s final playoff game last year, but that was the AFC Championship Game against the Bengals. So, that makes three straight years that Patrick Mahomes has thrown multiple interceptions in his final game of the season.
This past regular season, Mahomes averaged 0.7 INTs per game with 12 across 17 games. On the other side, the Eagles were a top-10 defense when it came to intercepting the ball, averaging 0.9 interceptions per game.
With Mahomes' ankle still not quite 100% and his receiving corps nowhere near 100%, that only adds to the potential for a mistake. Only needing one INT also opens the door for something like a Hail Mary at the end of the game or the end of the first half.
There's a really good chance we see a Mahomes interception, and that’s why the price of -110 at BetMGM is a great bet. I would play this to -125.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes To Throw Interception (-122) |
Jalen Hurts
Over 5.5 Consecutive Completions (-125; DraftKings)
Sean Koerner: Now this is a fun one.
Hurts has cleared this in 9-of-17 games, so it’s close to a breakeven bet (at worst). Based on my sims, I have this close to a 65% chance of hitting. I’m able to create a sample size of 10,000 as opposed to 17.
In Week 12 against the Titans, he had three streaks of seven consecutive completions. If those two extra streaks were counted as two separate games, his distribution would be nearly identical to what my sim is producing.
I think there is some sneaky value in this prop, and I would bet it up to -140.
To find this prop on DraftKings, go to the Super Bowl game page. Click "Super Bowl Specials" and then "Pass Props."
Super Bowl Rushing Props
Jerick McKinnon
Under 5.5 Rushing Attempts (-120, BetMGM; Bet to -155)
Chris Raybon: McKinnon has carried five or fewer times in 12 of 19 games this season, including four of his past five. The lone exception in the last five games was the Chiefs first playoff game where he carried 11 times for 25 yards. He was promptly reduced to four carries the following week.
McKinnon has been abysmal as a runner as of late, averaging just 1.8 yards per carry since Week 16, so there’s no reason to expect a sudden uptick again. That will especially be the case with Isiah Pacheco averaging more than five yards per carry over that span and Clyde Edwards-Helaire also back in the fold.
Pick: Jerick McKinnon Under 5.5 Rush Attempts (-136) |
Jalen Hurts
Over 10.5 Rush Attempts (BetMGM, -105; Play to -120)
PropBetGuy:For one final time this season, I’m banking on Hurts to look to make things happen on the ground.
Before suffering a shoulder injury, Hurts cleared this line in half of his games (seven of 14). Since returning to the lineup, Hurts has nine, nine and 11 rush attempts in three mostly non-competitive games.
Breaking it down further, Hurts eclipsed 10.5 rush attempts in six of nine games pre-injury that were decided by 14 or fewer points. The Super Bowl is inarguably the biggest stage in sports, so I expect Hurts and the Eagles to treat this as a close game, regardless of whether the scoreboard dictates it.
More importantly, it’s a plus matchup for Hurts’ rushing potential. The Chiefs allowed the third-most quarterback rush attempts in the regular season, partially due to their pass rushers generating QB pressure at the league’s fifth-highest rate.
Whether it’s via the scramble or designed runs, I have Hurts projected for 12 rush attempts.
Super Bowl Receiving Props
Kenneth Gainwell
Over 1.5 Receptions & Over 11.5 Receiving Yards
Stuckey: Back to the well for a third straight week with the over on receiving props for an opposing running back against Kansas City. I decided to split my over exposure between his receptions (over 1.5; -130) and receiving yards (over 11.5; -113).
The Chiefs ranked in the bottom five in defending backs in the passing game. Gainwell, who has seen his snap share significantly increase in the second half of the season, can take full advantage.
In the NFC Championship Game, Gainwell played a season-high 31 snaps. Now, his snap share does go down substantially in close games, which I believe this will be. But since I like the Chiefs and the over, I think the Eagles will be throwing more than usual. Plus, they really like Gainwell on third downs and in hurry-up, where he could rack up some easy catches.
In 19 games, the Chiefs allowed 23 backs to catch at least three balls — despite even facing three backup quarterbacks in Jarrett Stidham, Bryce Perkins and Malik Willis.
I think Gainwell becomes the 24th — although even just two receptions should get the job done for both wagers.
Pick: Kenneth Gainwell Over 11.5 Rec Yards |
Pick: Kenneth Gainwell Over 1.5 Receptions |
Super Bowl Touchdown Scorer
Dallas Goedert
Anytime Touchdown +220 (bet365)
Jalen Hurts has looked for Goedert early and often this season. The tight end has totaled 83 first-down catches with Hurts at quarterback – to put that into perspective, that’s more than his first three seasons combined (76). Goedert was on pace to surpass A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith had he played a full slate.
Attacking the slot is the key to beating the Chiefs defense, as K.C. was 31st in touchdowns allowed to the slot position, which is where Goedert exclusively lines up.
Since coming off their bye week in Week 10, the Chiefs have given up at least one score to slot players in all but two games. The two games they didn’t allow one were in Week 13 and the AFC Championship game, both against the Bengals.
For what it’s worth, Goedert caught a TD when the Eagles faced the Chiefs in Week 4 last season.
Super Bowl Kicking Props
Opening Kickoff to Be a Touchback (-160; Bet to -200)
Chris Raybon: Eagles kicker Jake Elliott has produced a touchback on 68 of 104 kickoffs (65.3%) and Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker has done so on 50 of 80 (62.5%). Those numbers sell their true probability of a touchback short, however, as both kickers play their home games outdoors.
If we look only at indoor/retractable roof stadiums, Elliott has boomed a touchback on 22 of 23 opportunities (95.7%) and Butker has gone 15-of-18 (83.3%).
Pick: Opening Kickoff To Be a Touchback — Yes (-160) |
Jake Elliott
Under 7.5 Kicking Points (-120, BetRivers)
Nick Giffen: The Eagles are the most aggressive team in the NFL on fourth down by quite a bit. They pass up on field goals at a 26% rate relative to expectation – the second-closest team to them comes in at 16%.
Expect Philadelphia to be even more aggressive in the Super Bowl in what should be a close game. The Chiefs only gave up 6.4 kicking points per game this year, and that's despite some bad luck!
Opposing teams made 100% of extra points against K.C. vs. an average of 94.6%. Opposing teams also made 92% of FGs compared to the NFL average of 85%. If the Chiefs had a little more luck there, it would be even less than 6.4 kicking points allowed.
The Chiefs faced the third-easiest schedule by opposing offense DVOA. The Eagles rank third in offensive DVOA, so expect them to be much more efficient than what the Chiefs have faced all year. That should lead to more TDs and extra-point opportunities than settling for field goals.
I project under 7.5 kicking points for Elliott at just over 60%, and I would bet to -140.
Pick: Jake Elliott Under 7.5 Kicking Points (-138) |
Super Bowl Defense Props
James Bradberry Tackles + Assists
Under 3.5 (-165; Bet to -443) | Under 2.5 (Bet to -124)
Chris Raybon: Bradberry has posted fewer than four combined tackles plus assists in 16 of 19 games (84.2%). In fact, he’s posted two or fewer more than half the time (11 of 19 games, or 57.9%).
Much of that stems from his excellence in coverage. Bradberry has allowed just 44 completions on 94 targets this season (46.0%), which equates to a catch every 16.5 snaps in coverage. His 49 tackles plus assists closely mirror those numbers.
With Tyreek Hill no longer in Kansas City, the Chiefs don’t have a wide receiver that can consistently beat Bradberry, so his tackle opportunities should once again be scarce.
Pick: James Bradberry Under 3.5 Tackles + Assists (-200) |
Total Sacks
Over 5.5 (+104)
Billy Ward: For the Super Bowl – and occasionally other games – books are offering an over/under bet on the total number of sacks between the two teams. I prefer this market over betting on sacks for either team individually. It’s far more resilient to game flow, as a team with a big lead will attempt far fewer passes and vice versa.
While game flow matters a bit here, the impact is far less. Theoretically, a reduction in one team’s passing rate would be balanced out by an increase for the other team. In practice, unless we’re projecting an identical sack rate per dropback for each team, a big lead either way shifts the math a bit.
Fortunately, this game is expected to be close, with a spread holding in the 1.5-point range. Additionally, both teams should have very similar sack rates. The Chiefs allow far less sacks, but the Eagles' defensive front forces more than their counterpart.
Based on comparing each team’s sack rates to the league average, then multiplying by their opposing sacks allowed, I came up with a rough estimate for the expected sack percentage from each team. Then, adjusting for each quarterback's expected pass attempts in Sean Koerner's projections, I was able to come up with a median total.
That number works out to just over 6.2, making the over a clear value at plus-money on FanDuel.
Pick: Over 5.5 Sacks (+104). |
Eagles Defense
Over 2.5 Sacks (Bet to -124, BetRivers)
Ricky Henne: We live in a fantasy football-driven world where offensive fireworks produce the majority of headlines. That’s a shame, because not enough people realize how historically dominant the Eagles' pass rush has been all season.
Philadelphia's 70 regular-season sacks were the third most in NFL history, trailing only the 1984 Bears (72) and the ‘89 Vikings (71). The Eagles have eight more sacks in two postseason games. Those 78 are the third most since the 1970 NFL merger. They’re also the only team to have four players record more than 10 sacks in a season (Haason Reddick, Javon Hargrave, Josh Sweat and Brandon Graham).
Now, the Eagles are primed to bring the heat in Super Bowl LVII, which is why I’m backing them to go over 2.5 sacks, which is a bet available at most sportsbooks.
It won’t be an easy task for Philly, since the Chiefs surrendered the third-fewest sacks in the regular season (26), only 1.52 per game. That doesn’t deter me, though. Kansas City threw the ball on 61.9% of its offensive plays, which was the eighth most in the league. Thus, there should be plenty of opportunities for the Eagles to get to Mahomes, who’s still dealing with a bad ankle.
The juice on this bet’s improved as the week’s gone along. It was available last week at -150. Now, you can get it at -132 at BetRivers, and I’m absolutely gobbling it up.
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