Chiefs vs Packers Best Bets: 4 Props & Picks for Sunday Night Football

The Sunday NFL Week 13 slate concludes at Lambeau Field, and we have Chiefs vs Packers best bets, props and picks for Sunday Night Football.

The Chiefs vs Broncos spread for SNF has the Chiefs as 5.5-to-6-point favorites with a game total of 43.5. Our staff has four Chiefs vs Packers picks, with two experts aligned on the Packers to cover the spread, plus player props for Patrick Mahomes and Christian Watson.

Our staff of NFL betting analysts are all over this game with this SNF betting preview. Here are our four Chiefs vs Packers best bets.

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By Simon Hunter

Come on, people. You know I was going to be in the primetime home 'dog. I always love this spot, especially if that 'dog is on more than 10 days' rest this late in the season.

I’m not buying that the Chiefs have fixed their offense after one good week against the Raiders. This is what they've done all season. It’s good one week, bad the next. This just isn't the same Chiefs offense that we've been treated to in recent years, but they're being priced as if they are.

Green Bay, on the other hand, has improved every week. You can see the team's growth and trust in Jordan Love. Also, it helps that the Packers are starting to get healthier.

Even with all the teasers and money parlays, we’ve seen the Chiefs move from -7 to -6. This is a typical Pro vs. Joes game. The public is happy to take the Chiefs at this number, all while overlooking all the trends that point to this being a spot to back the Packers.

One of my favorite trends: The Packers are 5-2 against the spread (ATS) after playing the Lions under LaFleur and 19-6 ATS the game after playing an NFC North foe, which is the sixth-best mark of any head coach last 20 years.

Shop around and make sure you get the +6. I could see this dropping to +5.5 by kickoff on Sunday night.

Pick: Packers +6 (-110)

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By John LanFranca

I sided with the Packers on Thanksgiving in Detroit, and I'm going to keep backing them as their offense has clearly turned a corner.

Jordan Love is playing with more confidence and the offensive line continues to protect him extremely well. The Packers offensive line has the second-highest pass block win rate in the league, according to ESPN. This has translated to Love becoming more willing to hang in the pocket and deliver the football down the field.

Love has averaged 8.2 yards per attempt over his last two games. Having all his top three receivers — Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed — healthy and in the lineup has also made this offense much more dangerous.

The Chiefs offense still has some question marks despite a good road performance against the Raiders. Green Bay is seventh in the league at pressure rate and should be able to bother Mahomes just enough to create havoc and stall drives.

Mahomes has covered the spread when installed as more than a field goal favorite at only a 47% rate in his career. I like the spot here for the Packers on extended rest and expect them to remain hot.

The Packers were catching the most points they have been afforded all season when they traveled to Detroit, a game in which they controlled for all 60 minutes. They had not been an underdog of more than four points this entire season, and this line one again is inflated considering how these two teams have performed over the past month.

I'd bet the Packers down to +4.5.

By Matt Trebby

When the lights are shining brightest, Patrick Mahomes runs wild.

This season, in primetime/standalone games, Mahomes is 5-0 to the over on 4.5 rushing attempts. He’s averaging 4.8 rushing attempts per game, and that increases to 5.2 in primetime/standalone games.

Mahomes has gone over 4.5 rush attempts in seven of the Chiefs’ 11 games this season, including their last three. Our own Sean Koerner’s projections at Action Labs have Mahomes pegged for 4.5 rush attempts.

So, how on earth are we getting +250 for over 4.5 rush attempts at ESPN Bet? I jumped at that number, while also playing over 3.5 at +125. As of Saturday night, you can get over 3.5 at +130 over at BetMGM.

Note: Over 4.5 has moved to +185 as of 6:51 p.m. ET Sunday.

Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 4.5 Rush Attempts (+250)

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By Grant Neiffer

Watson has always been a big boom-or-bust guy, and this matchup here does not suit that at all.

The Chiefs defense has been fantastic this season, allowing just 176.6 passing yards per game. Specifically, this unit has been great at limiting opposing WRs allowing the seventh-fewest yards at 1,499 while facing the likes of Keenan Allen, Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, D.J. Moore and Amon Ra-St Brown. Looking at that list, it's one of the toughest possible schedules for WR1s, but they haven't allowed more than 73 yards to any of them and have allowed an average of less than 50 yards to that list.

Watson may not even be fully considering a WR1 at this point with how bad his production has been this season, hitting the under at this number in six of eight games this season. I expect the Chiefs to cover him as the WR1, though.

Considering the matchup and production Watson has had this season, I'm rolling with the under on this one and would hit it all the way down to 35.5.

Pick: Christian Watson Under 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)