The Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) and Green Bay Packers (2-1-1) clash in Week 6 of the NFL season. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The game will be broadcast live on CBS.
The Packers are 14-point spread favorites over the Bengals (Packers -14); the game total is set at 44.5. Green Bay is priced at -1300 to win outright on the moneyline, while Cincinnati is +750 to pull off the upset.
With Joe Burrow sidelined, the Bengals have dropped three straight games as backup QB Jake Browning has been less serviceable than expected. The Bengals have since pivoted to Joe Flacco via trade; the veteran gets his second crack at the Packers on Sunday.
Let's get into my Bengals vs Packers prediction for this afternoon's game.
Bengals vs Packers Prediction
- Bengals vs Packers pick: Packers -14 (bet to -115)
My Bengals vs Packers best bet is the Packers to cover the spread (-14). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Bengals vs Packers Odds
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -115 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +750 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -105 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -1300 |
Bengals vs Packers Week 6 Preview
Cincinnati Bengals Betting Preview: Is Joe Flacco the Answer?
While Joe Flacco is far from the most convincing solution, it was clear the Bengals would be incapable of treading water during Joe Burrow's absence with Jake Browning under center.
Browning ranked 35th among all NFL quarterbacks with a pass rating of 50.5; Cincinnati ranked dead last in offensive EPA during his three starts.
Though it is reasonable for the Bengals to move on from Browning, it certainly remains to be seen whether 40-year-old Joe Flacco is the answer. It's been well-documented that the Bengals' pass-blocking has been a mess this season, and Flacco has a grade of 46.5 when pressured this season. He ranked 41st of 43 QBs last season when pressured.
The general notion is that Flacco should be able to do a slightly better job of getting the ball into the hands of the Bengals' elite 1-2 punch of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, but if he's unable to get the ball out quickly, things might not look much different.
The Bengals have allowed pressure at the third-highest rate in the NFL this season, which has factored into the team's 31st ranking in EPA per drop back.
Flacco holds a passer rating of 27.8 this season, above only Titans rookie Cam Ward. While the Bengals have superior receiving options compared to the Browns, who were able to sneak out a win over the Packers in Week 3, Cincy has not rushed the ball as effectively and feature a worse offensive line.
The Bengals are last in rushing yards per game, and their offensive line ranks 23rd in run-block win rate.
Chase Brown has been one of the NFL's greatest disappointments, both from a fantasy perspective and in terms of actual effectiveness. He ranks 49th with a rushing grade of 57.9.
The Bengals may be without numerous noteworthy offensive players, as Dylan Fairchild (G), Matt Lee (C), Lucas Patrick (G) are questionable. Chase is also considered questionable with illness, but is expected to play.
Bengals head coach Zac Taylor has been forced to start a backup QB 20 times during his tenure and is 8-11-1 ATS in those matchups.
Cincinnati has not been much better defensively, as it ranks 27th in EPA per play and has allowed 5.8 yards against per play. It has also allowed 2.7 points against per drive and ranks 27th in conversion rate.
Green Bay Packers Betting Preview: Get-Right Spot for Pack
The Packers hype train hit full steam after a 2-0 start, which had many observers believing they were the team to beat in the NFC after they added Micah Parsons to an already strong defensive front.
After a 13-10 loss to the Browns in Week 3, followed by a 40-40 tie in Week 4 versus the Cowboys, the Packers shouldn't be looking past this soft matchup coming out of the bye week.
Head coach Matt LaFleur has fared well in favorable spots off of the bye historically; the Packers are 3-0 ATS off the bye when favored by seven or more under LaFleur.
Despite allowing 40 points in their last matchup, the Packers defense ranks near the top of the league in most key metrics this season. They have allowed only 4.5 yards per play and rank first in DVOA.
As expected, their defensive line has pressured opposing quarterbacks effectively, grading fourth in pass rush (per PFF) and generating a pressure rate of 43%.
Given the struggles of Cincinnati's beat-up offensive line and Flacco's lack of mobility, the potential is certainly there for Green Bay's defensive line to wreak havoc.
Though emphasis was reportedly placed upon forcing defensive fumbles in training camp, the Packers defense has not yet forced any this season.
Green Bay's defense could be due for some positive regression in that front, as generally teams will regress to the mean in terms of forced fumbles throughout the course of a season.
In his fifth NFL campaign, QB Jordan Love has continued to show strong progression and ranks sixth in offensive EPA per dropback and holds the fourth-highest passer rating among NFL quarterbacks this season. The Packers have converted third downs at the sixth-highest rate and rank seventh in red-zone efficiency.
Bengals vs Packers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Based on preseason expectations, it feels pretty crazy to think that what was once a promising matchup now features a 14-point betting spread, but with Joe Burrow sidelined, that's the point we are at, and it doesn't feel like things will get any better for the Bengals in this spot.
As noted, Zac Taylor is just 8-11-1 ATS with a backup quarterback under center. While I'm not typically overly interested in betting trends of that nature, I think this one has some solid logic, in that during the rest of his tenure Burrow has covered up for some very iffy coaching with his excellent play.
Flacco has arguably been comparable to Browning this season, other than the veteran was able to limit backbreaking mistakes somewhat more effectively while playing for a Browns team with a more efficient running game and better pass blocking.
The Bengals' depleted offensive line could struggle mightily versus the Packers' elite pass rush, and the fact that Chase Brown has been so inefficient won't help matters.
While a spread of 14 in a Week 6 matchup featuring a team that was once expected to contend seems quite large, I actually am still high on the Packers' chances of covering in a spot where they should drastically outperform Cincinnati on both sides of the ball.
Pick: Packers -14 (-105 to -115; bet365)
Spread
As outlined, backing the Packers to cover the spread is my favorite play from this matchup.
Moneyline
I'd greatly prefer either using the Packers as a teaser piece or backing them to cover the spread at -14.
While I'm a believer that Flacco will struggle in his Bengals debut, there is obviously a little extra volatility in this being the Bengals' first game without Browning under center.
Over/Under
While I'm hopeful that we will see a complete blowout in this matchup, a total of 44.5 seems reasonable given the possibility that the Packers are able to hold the Bengals to a very low team total.
