Koerner’s Colts-Saints MNF Miracle Odds: Will You Win Your Fantasy Football Semifinal Matchup?
Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas
- Need a Monday Night Football miracle to win your fantasy football matchup and advance to the league championship?
- Sean Koerner calculates the probability of key Colts and Saints players scoring enough points to win your semifinals.
- Example: Need 30 points from Saints RB Alvin Kamara? He has a 3.6% of pulling off the miracle for you.
Monday Night Football can make or break your weekly fantasy football matchup. Sweating player(s) you and/or your opponent have makes it a high-leverage situation — especially in the playoffs.
So what’re your chances of a Monday night miracle win?
I simulated tonight’s matchup 10,000 times to calculate the probability of key players hitting certain point thresholds. So, for example: Need 30 points from Michael Thomas? He has a 8.2% chance of pulling out a MNF miracle for you.
Here are the players I’ll touch on:
- Saints: Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray, Michael Thomas, Jared Cook
- Colts: Jacoby Brissett, Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines, T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal, Jack Doyle
Now let’s dig into the full odds. (Note these are based on half PPR scoring.)
Note: The following is based on the assumption T.Y. Hilton plays.