Koerner’s Colts-Saints MNF Miracle Odds: Will You Win Your Fantasy Football Semifinal Matchup?

Koerner’s Colts-Saints MNF Miracle Odds: Will You Win Your Fantasy Football Semifinal Matchup? article feature image
Credit:

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas

  • Need a Monday Night Football miracle to win your fantasy football matchup and advance to the league championship?
  • Sean Koerner calculates the probability of key Colts and Saints players scoring enough points to win your semifinals.
  • Example: Need 30 points from Saints RB Alvin Kamara? He has a 3.6% of pulling off the miracle for you.

Monday Night Football can make or break your weekly fantasy football matchup. Sweating player(s) you and/or your opponent have makes it a high-leverage situation — especially in the playoffs.

So what’re your chances of a Monday night miracle win?

I simulated tonight’s matchup 10,000 times to calculate the probability of key players hitting certain point thresholds. So, for example: Need 30 points from Michael Thomas? He has a 8.2% chance of pulling out a MNF miracle for you.

Here are the players I’ll touch on:

  • Saints: Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray, Michael Thomas, Jared Cook
  • Colts: Jacoby Brissett, Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines, T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal, Jack Doyle

Now let’s dig into the full odds. (Note these are based on half PPR scoring.)

Note: The following is based on the assumption T.Y. Hilton plays.

Drew Brees, QB, Saints

Jacoby Brissett, QB, Colts

Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints

Latavius Murray, RB, Saints

Marlon Mack, RB, Colts

Nyheim Hines, RB, Colts

Michael Thomas, WR, Saints

T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts

Zach Pascal, WR, Colts

Jared Cook, TE, Saints

Jack Doyle, TE, Colts