Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Indianapolis Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett
- Following Andrew Luck's retirment, Jacoby Brissett will start at quarterback for the Colts' NFL Week 1 game against the Chargers (4:05 p.m. ET, CBS).
- We examine how oddsmakers adjusted Colts vs. Chargers odds for Brissett, and how the betting market has responded.
Andrew Luck’s retirement from the NFL was undoubtedly the biggest story of the 2019 offseason. And from an betting perspective, it also had a major effect on lines for Indianapolis’ Week 1 matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers.
While one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league, Jacoby Brissett is clearly a drop off from Luck, and Colts vs. Chargers Week 1 line movement reflects this.
Prior to Luck’s retirement announcement, Indy sat as a 3-point road underdog in this matchup. Immediately following the news that Brissett would be under center, oddsmakers reopened the Colts as 7-point underdogs.
At this point, the key question revolved around how the market would respond to this new number.
We now have that answer.
Money has since come in on Brissett and the Colts at the key number of seven, forcing oddsmakers to adjust this spread down to Indy +6.5.
The line remained there until shortly after 11 a.m. ET Sunday, when another wave hit the Colts once again, driving the spread to +6 across the board.
Remember, long-term winners bet numbers not teams, and this game provides a fantastic example. The market determined that a move from +3 to +7 was too much, even with Brissett playing instead of Luck.
Does this mean bettors are predicting a Colts upset? Absolutely not.
But it is a signal that the four-point adjustment made by oddsmakers was undervaluing Brissett at the key number of +7, and the market has acted accordingly to correct it.