The Best Cowboys vs. Bears Prop Bets & Picks for TNF
Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mitchell Trubisky.
- We've identified two of the best prop bets for Thursday Night Football between the Cowboys and Bears.
- Find our picks for the over/under on Mitchell Trubisky's rushing yards and Michael Gallup's receptions below.
NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.
This is where the FantasyLabs Player Props tool comes in handy.
We leverage prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons. Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
Note that unders have typically done the best in our tool. Last season unders were profitable even with grades below 10, with all hitting at a 59.0% rate. Don’t take our word for it, though: Our tool keeps track of its record at all times, so you can query performance of any time frame.
Cowboys vs. Bears Prop Bets & Picks
Let’s take a look at three props worth considering for the Thursday Night Football contest between the Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears.
Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky
THE PICK: Under 9.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Trubisky leaves a lot to be desired as a passer, but he’s been able to make up for it in the past with decent athleticism. He averaged 20.7 rushing yards per game as a rookie, and that number increased to 30.1 as a sophomore. He averaged at least 6.0 yards per attempt both seasons.
With that in mind, his lack of production on the ground this year is surprising. His yards per attempt has dropped to just 3.1, and he’s averaging just 2.4 attempts per game. The result is an average of just 7.3 yards per game, and he’s been below 9.5 rushing yards in six of his past nine games.
This prop seems underpriced at just -110, and I’d be willing to play the under up to -140.
Cowboys WR Michael Gallup
THE PICK: Over 3.5 receptions (-167)
Gallup is coming off just three receptions on Thanksgiving against the Bills, which makes this a nice opportunity to buy low on him. He’s been much more involved in the Cowboys’ passing attack this season, ranking second on the team with a target market share of 18.1%.
Overall, he’s averaged 4.9 receptions per game, and he’s recorded at least four catches in seven of his first 10 games.
These -167 odds have an implied probability of approximately 62.5%, which is low given Gallup’s production this season. I would play this prop up to -180.