Cowboys vs Cardinals NFL Odds, Pick, Prediction | Beware of Backdoor Cover
Credit: Getty Images. Pictured: Dak Prescott (left) and Joshua Dobbs (right).
Cowboys vs Cardinals Odds for NFL Week 3
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | -650 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 44 -110o / -110u | +475 |
Cowboys vs. Cardinals odds have Dallas laying 11.5 points in NFL Week 3.
Expectedly, the country expects the Cowboys to rout the Cardinals at State Farm Stadium — 82% of the public and 70% of the money is on Dallas to cover the spread as of Sunday afternoon. I see easier paths to back Dallas to profit. Instead of backing the Cowboys over the entire game, my betting pick is them covering the spread in the first half.
Let's break down the matchup and make our Cowboys vs. Cardinals pick below.
Explosive starts have been Dallas’ trademark through two games as its dominated on both sides of the ball from the jump.
On offense, the Cowboys are averaging a league-high 22.0 points in the first half, which is 3.5 points more than any other team. However, they’re averaging far less in the second (13.0) as they play more conservatively with a big lead.
Dak Prescott’s numbers in the first half compared to the second is just one example of why I’m zeroing in on the first-half cover.
Look what happened last week. Prescott completed 21-of-26 passes (80.8%) for 165 yards and two touchdowns early on against the Jets, who have what many consider one of the league’s elite defenses. However, he attempted only 12 passes in the second half, completing 10 of them for 90 yards as Dallas let up on the gas.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys are allowing a league-low 5.0 points to opponents in the first half. They’ve forced two turnovers, five punts and have added five sacks. They’ve also scored a defensive touchdown, plus another on special teams off a blocked field goal.
Bet Dallas vs. Arizona at FanDuel
It’s worth pointing out that the Cardinals are also allowing just 5.0 points in the first half, tying Dallas for the best mark in the league. However, that’s likely a fluke and product of a short sample size. Just look at how they were eaten up in the second half in last week’s collapse to the Giants.
Arizona surrendered 31 points after halftime against Daniel Jones and an offense that’s a far cry from the Cowboys. New York averages the fourth-fewest points in the league (14.3) through three games, but more than doubled that output against the Cardinals.
Offensively, the Cardinals have been a mess to start the year. They’ve scored only three touchdowns on offense and were shut out in the second half last week against a Giants defense giving up the most points per game to date (32.7).
They face a much stiffer test against the Cowboys, who lead the league in defensive DVOA (63.3%) — 16 points more than the second-best team and 24.1 more than the third.
Dallas' defense suffered a blow this week when one of the league’s premiere cornerbacks, Trevon Diggs, suffered a torn ACL that will sideline him for the season.
That might be an area for most teams to expose, and it’s garnered a lot of attention in recent days. However, there aren’t many reasons to think quarterback Joshua Dobbs and an anemic passing offense can take advantage.
The Cardinals average the seventh-fewest passing yards per game (171.0), so you can add that to a long litany of reasons I like Dallas to manhandle Arizona.
There’s simply not a single area the Cardinals have a mismatch in when they have the ball.
Cowboys vs. Cardinals
Betting Picks & Predictions
This likely won’t be a fair fight.
The Cowboys are lightyears ahead of the Cardinals. However, while the public likes them to cover 12.5 points, that’s simply too big of a spread for me. The Cowboys have throttled back with late second-half leads, and I’m fearful of the late backdoor cover, especially with such a large spread.
However, I clearly like Dallas’ chances to dominate from the get-go. It’s been the Cowboys' modus operandi early in the year, and there are plenty of reasons to think that’ll continue against Arizona.
Most books have the first-half spread at 7.5, but you can find it as low at 6.5, albeit with more juice.
Feel free to pick your poison between a higher payout or a safer proposition.
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