Daniel Jones Prop Pick: Betting Against His Touchdown Production In 2020


Steven Ryan/Getty Images. Pictured: Daniel Jones

Daniel Jones Prop Pick for 2020

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Daniel Jones was extremely volatile in his rookie season. No better stat encapsulates that than his week-to-week passing touchdowns: Jones threw for two or more touchdowns in five of his 12 starts, and in three of those games he threw for four or more.

But regression is likely to hit Jones (relatively) hard in 2020: His pass TD rate of 5.2% should regress toward the league average of 4.6%.

Another factor that led to Jones’ high TD rate was Saquon Barkley suffering an ankle injury in Week 3 that forced him to miss three games. Barkley played at less than 100% until the final few weeks of the season and ultimately finished with only six rushing TDs.

As a team, the Giants scored 73% of their offensive TDs via the pass, and there are only a few offenses that I would consider likely to maintain a rate in the 70-75% range as the average rate is typically around 65%. I’m expecting the Giants offense to regress much closer to the league average this season, resulting in a projection of 24.3 passing TDs for Jones.

To illustrate just how much value is on the under 27.5 passing TDs: Only four QBs threw for 28 or more touchdowns in 2019, and I think it’s fair to say Jones doesn’t deserve to be in such exclusive company.

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