Broncos-Bengals Betting Preview: Nobody Believes in Jeff Driskel

Betting odds: Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals

• Spread: Broncos -5.5
• Over/Under: 45
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS

Betting market: Let’s just say public bettors aren’t ready to back Jeff Driskel, who's starting in place of Andy Dalton (thumb) for the Bengals.

At the time of writing the Broncos are getting 76% of bets, so folks expect the Broncos continue their two-game winning streak. They’ve moved from -3.5 to -5.5 since opening (see live betting data here). —Mark Gallant

Weather report: Forecasts are currently projecting 14 mph winds in Cincy for Driskel’s first career start. The weather will otherwise be nice, with clear skies and temperatures in the mid-50s. — Mark Gallant

Trend to know: This is one of two games in Week 13 that features a home team allowing at least 30 points per game this season (Panthers-Bucs is the other).

Interestingly, the under has historically been a good play in this spot.

In games in November or later that feature a home team that allows at least 30 PPG, the under is 35-17-1 (67.3%), going under the total by 3.1 PPG per Bet Labs.

When the total is set below the key number of 47, the under is 23-10-1 (69.7%), going under by 3.7 PPG. — Evan Abrams

Did you know? This is just the fifth game Dalton has missed since being drafted in 2011. The previous four games came in the 2015 season when another thumb injury knocked him out of the final three games of the regular season and a playoff game.

In those four games the Bengals went 2-2 straight up and 2-1-1 against the spread. — John Ewing

Under head coach Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati is 7-1 ATS when it is on a three-game losing streak. — Evan Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Broncos CB Chris Harris Jr. vs. Bengals WR Tyler Boyd

Boyd has run 74% of his routes from the slot this season, which means he's likely to see a lot of Chris Harris Jr. on Sunday. Harris is Pro Football Focus’ No. 5 cornerback this year and quarterbacks have a passer rating of just 63.6 when targeting him.

Overall, Harris is allowing just 0.84 yards per cover snap from the slot. Boyd could be in for a rough outing, especially with Driskel behind center. — Justin Bailey

Which team is healthier? Broncos

The Broncos could welcome back stud linebacker Brandon Marshall (knee), but the outlook for cornerback Tramaine Brock (ribs) and outside linebacker Shaquil Barrett (hip) is less optimistic.

The most concerning injury is wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders (heel), who was downgraded to a limited practice Thursday.

Driskel might be without left tackle Cordy Glenn (back) in addition to backup offensive tackle Jake Fisher (back, IR).

The good news is wide receiver A.J. Green (toe) is tentatively expected to suit up Sunday, but the bad news is the defense is dealing with injuries to defensive end Carlos Dunlap (hip), linebacker Nick Vigil (knee), along with cornerbacks Dre Kirkpatrick (shoulder) and Darqueze Dennard (illness).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: If you’re in need of a pure punt on DraftKings, Matt LaCosse could be your guy. Jeff Heuerman (ribs) is on injured reserve, leaving LaCosse as the Broncos’ starting tight end.

He put together a 3-34-1 game on just four targets and 27 snaps last week, but that snap count will be on the rise as the featured tight end.

On deck is a Bengals defense that’s allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. LaCosse costs just $2,500 on DraftKings and is sporting position-high +3.86 Projected Plus/Minus. —Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Bengals +5.5

The Bengals have lost three straight games. They will be without their starting QB and their offense is averaging only 18.3 PPG during their current losing streak. On the other side, the Broncos have won two straight against two current AFC playoff teams.

The mixture of both circumstances is creating some value on Cincy.

Denver hasn't turned the ball over in its past two games and has created six takeaways. That won't keep up and I wouldn't be surprised if regression comes against the Bengals.

Denver has never been this big of a road favorite under Vance Joseph. It's worth nothing the Broncos have played well on the road lately, but that hasn’t always been the case with Joseph, as he started his coaching career 1-9 ATS on the road.

Even with everything that's going against them, I like the Bengals in a value spot. Let's just hope Driskel can keep things tidy.— Evan Abrams

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.