No CodeNeeded

Derek Carr Player Props: Expert Pick for Broncos vs Raiders

Derek Carr Player Props: Expert Pick for Broncos vs Raiders article feature image

David Eulitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Derek Carr.

Prop Bomb will be contributing to Action Network's NFL coverage this season, also tracking all his bets in the Action Network app.

Derek Carr Passing Yards

PropDerek Carr Under 270.5 Passing Yards
MatchupBroncos vs. Raiders
Time4:25 p.m. ET
Best BookFanDuel

It might be unfair to call them the NFL’s worst, but the Raiders are the only team in the league to have lost their first three games this season..

Carr has only stayed under this line in one of his three games thus far. Unsurprisingly, the two times he went over were when the Raiders were playing from behind for the majority of the game. Against Denver, which has led just 11% of its first three games, I expect a more neutral/positive script for Las Vegas.

And when the Raiders are on offense, the run game is likely to be prioritized. Denver’s young secondary have played very well thus far, coupled with a stout pass rush. The Broncos currently rank fourth in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA metric and have held opposing quarterbacks to 5.4 yards per attempt (third best).

Plus, Denver has begun the season as one of the better teams in controlling the clock. The Broncos rank fifth in time of possession and third in opponent third down conversion percentage, two areas in which the Raiders have struggled. Less time of possession correlates with less plays, an obvious advantage when fading yardage props.

Denver’s pass defense has yet to allow an opposing quarterback within 50 yards of this line. With a more balanced offensive game plan, I have Carr projected around 250 yards today, and would play this prop down to under 260.5.

The must-have app for NFL bettors

The best NFL betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.