Derek Carr Player Props: Expert Pick for Broncos vs Raiders
David Eulitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Derek Carr.
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Derek Carr Passing Yards
|Derek Carr Under 270.5 Passing Yards
|Broncos vs. Raiders
|4:25 p.m. ET
It might be unfair to call them the NFL’s worst, but the Raiders are the only team in the league to have lost their first three games this season..
Carr has only stayed under this line in one of his three games thus far. Unsurprisingly, the two times he went over were when the Raiders were playing from behind for the majority of the game. Against Denver, which has led just 11% of its first three games, I expect a more neutral/positive script for Las Vegas.
And when the Raiders are on offense, the run game is likely to be prioritized. Denver’s young secondary have played very well thus far, coupled with a stout pass rush. The Broncos currently rank fourth in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA metric and have held opposing quarterbacks to 5.4 yards per attempt (third best).
Plus, Denver has begun the season as one of the better teams in controlling the clock. The Broncos rank fifth in time of possession and third in opponent third down conversion percentage, two areas in which the Raiders have struggled. Less time of possession correlates with less plays, an obvious advantage when fading yardage props.
Denver’s pass defense has yet to allow an opposing quarterback within 50 yards of this line. With a more balanced offensive game plan, I have Carr projected around 250 yards today, and would play this prop down to under 260.5.