Eagles vs. 49ers Picks: How To Bet The Sunday Night Football Spread & Total
Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Carson Wentz
The San Francisco 49ers will host the Philadelphia Eagles for a Sunday Night Football showdown.
Our staff has you covered with how they’re betting the primetime showdown below.
Eagles vs. 49ers Picks
We’ve included books offering the best lines as of writing, but you can compare real-time odds here.
Over 45 or lower
Chris Raybon: Eagles +7.5 (or better); Over 45 (or lower)
On the Week 4 edition of our Action Network Podcast, the Eagles were one of my picks — though that was before additional players were ruled out. I still have this line lower than the market, as the math says we should expect the Eagles’ turnover luck to regress and the 49ers’ impressive showings came against maybe the two worst teams in the league.
Shanahan always gives the 49ers an edge, but as Matthew Freedman pointed out in his early trends piece, Shanahan’s teams typically struggle to beat the number in this spot, producing 3-9-1 record against the spread as a home favorite under his watch.
The 49ers tend to be overvalued at home when they covered the previous week, producing a 2-8 ATS mark under Shanahan according to our Bet Labs data.
With books finally moving off the key number of 7, the Eagles are worth a fade-the-public value play at +7.5 or better.
If you’re (understandably) skittish about backing the Eagles in this state, consider betting the total over 44.5. Our consensus line puts the total at 47.4, and there are multiple paths to the over: Shanahan’s offensive scheming, the return of George Kittle and Deebo Samuel, both teams’ defensive injuries, the Eagles’ offensives regression toward the mean, and the high-variance play of Nick Mullens (and now Carson Wentz).
Historically, the market tends to undervalue Eagles totals on the road: Per our Bet Labs data, Eagles’ road overs have gone 21-8 with Wentz as the starter, including 7-2 since the start of last season.
I wouldn’t bet the over at anything higher than 45 (-120).
Brandon Anderson: Eagles +320 ML
This game doesn’t look nearly as exciting as it appeared on the calendar a month ago, and it’s largely because of the injury bug hitting both teams as hard as just about anyone.
The 49ers hit a low point with injuries last week but were lucky to play the Giants. Now the Niners are starting to get a little healthier with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel expected to return, but the team is still extremely short-staffed: Jimmy Garoppolo and Raheem Mostert will miss another game, leaving San Francisco without its starting quarterback and running back.
The Niners are also decimated on the defensive line and in the secondary. Those defensive injuries are key because it could create a bit of a get-right opportunity for Carson Wentz after struggling through a miserable start to the season. Philadelphia is still in rough shape at receiver (including tight end Dallas Goedert), but it’s starting to get healthier on defense.
The offensive line remains shaky with two starters out for the season and Jason Peters now out this week. A big part of Wentz’s problems so far is that he’s constantly under pressure and then compounding the issue by holding the ball long enough for trouble to find him.
As poorly as the Eagles’ season has gone, they’re still only a half-game out of the division lead. By the time this game kicks off, it’s possible that a win here could move them into first. At +320, the moneyline implies a 24% chance of winning here, and I just don’t see the Niners winning three of four matchups.
The Eagles have the edge at quarterback and running back, and their banged-up line is offset by similar injuries to San Francisco’s pass defense. There’s definitely one game script here in which San Fran blows Philly out and leaves us watching some NBA, but with the season on the line, I think Wentz and Doug Pederson find a way to keep things close.
If the game is close, I’m giving Wentz a shot at saving his season and maybe his job. I’m placing a small bet on the upset special at +320 or down to +275 as needed.
Sean Koerner: Jeff Wilson Over 33.5 Rush Yards (-110)
Jeff Wilson benefits from injuries on both sides of this Sunday Night Football matchup.
Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman remain out for San Francisco, meaning Wilson and Jerick McKinnon will be the two main backs again this week.
The Eagles have been decimated by injuries at the wide receiver and tight end positions as well as along the offensive line, which is why the 49ers have ballooned from 3- to 9-point favorites since opening (find real-time odds here). As a result, this game script should favor Wilson as the main early-down back rather than McKinnon as the main pass-catching back. McKinnon has also been dealing with a rib injury, which could mean a few more carries for Wilson on Sunday night.
Don’t let Wilson’s 12 carries for 15 yards last week turn you off — he should regress toward a yards per carry mark closer to 3.7 in this one. I have him projected for 12.8 carries and a median of 47.5 rush yards, so this prop is way too low and I would bet the over up to 42.5 yards.
Here are the projected chances of Wilson going over or under various yardages based on my player prop simulations so you can compare to the line(s) available at your sportsbook(s):