How Much Would Eric Berry’s Return Impact Chargers-Chiefs?

Every week I leverage my experience as a high school football coach and fantasy analyst with a statistics background to help you find an advantage when setting your fantasy football lineups and placing your bets.

This week we're focusing on the AFC West showdown featuring the Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) on Thursday Night Football.

Return of the King

This matchup has massive implications for the AFC playoff picture.

The Chargers are a game back from the Chiefs in the division race. Making it even more important is that the Chiefs and Chargers are first and second in the AFC in wins, respectively, which means the division winner could secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, while the other will have to play on the road in the first round.

The importance of this game cannot be overstated.

Fortunately for the Chiefs, they could welcome back their defensive leader. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported Saturday that the Chiefs were preparing Eric Berry — who hasn't seen the field since Week 1 of the 2017 season due to Achilles and heel injuries — to play on Thursday night. The team later confirmed "there's a chance" Berry will make his debut against the Chargers.

All that is good news, considering Berry is unequivocally the most important player on the Kansas City defense and would have a massive impact on Thursday's game.

Berry's Importance in Cover 1

As I've highlighted at variouspoints throughout the season, the Chiefs play heavy Cover 1 defense, the most in the league. When playing Cover 1, there will be a safety left free to roam and make plays, while man defense is played underneath.

It's imperative that the player left to roam is talented with great instincts — that's what will really make the defense go. And Berry is absolutely that player.

Berry's Pro Football Focus coverage grade was the 11th-best in 2015 and tied for second in 2016 at safety. For context, Eric Murray's current coverage grade ranks 44th on the season while every other Chiefs safety is outside the top 65.

Berry allowed an average of 0.38 yards per coverage snap in 2015 and 2016, per PFF. Murray and Ron Parker are allowing 0.60 and 0.59 yards per snap, respectively. Berry played in every game in 2015 and 2016, during which the Chiefs allowed just 6.0 adjusted yards per pass attempt. They've since allowed 7.1.

Berry has also shown great versatility in his ability to cover slot players. He allowed just 1.04 yards per slot coverage snap in 2015 and 2016 compared to the 1.33 yards allowed by the Murray/Parker combination in 2018.

The Chargers' Passing Game

Berry will be of particular use in this matchup. The Chargers scored 28 points against the Chiefs in Week 1 and have been a tough cover for most defensive units this season. They rank second in yards gained per deep pass attempt according to Pro Football reference, and Philip Rivers is fourth in quarterback rating on deep passes.

But Berry's athletic metrics are off the charts, and his ability to be a rangy player in space should greatly improve the Chiefs' ability to cover deep passes. When we last saw Berry play, the Chiefs ranked sixth in Football Outsiders' DVOA against deep passes. So far this season, they rank just 21st in that category.

Meanwhile, Berry's ability to cover in the slot will be especially important against Keenan Allen. Obviously Berry cannot do both at once, but his presence and versatility will make life more difficult for Los Angeles' offense.

Bet the Chiefs

Berry has been practicing for about two weeks now, making his return an expected one for Thursday's game. After beating the Chargers by 10 in their first meeting in L.A., this sets up very well for the Chiefs to impose their will as lead dogs in the AFC.

The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites as of writing (see live odds here). Although they've failed to cover in two straight games, that's not a death knell for Kansas City. Teams on against-the-spread losing streaks of two games have covered in their next contest about 53% of the time since 2005. Further, opening home favorites on Thursday night have also crushed, covering 60% of the time overall with a record of 10-2-1 this season.

Given all this, I would strongly recommend the Chiefs in Thursday's contest.

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.