Falcons vs. 49ers Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions: Will San Francisco Continue to Cover?

Falcons vs. 49ers Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions: Will San Francisco Continue to Cover? article feature image

Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle

  • The San Francisco 49ers are unsurprisingly huge home favorites against the Atlanta Falcons (spread: 49ers -11).
  • The updated over/under (47.5) signals that this could be a high-scoring game.
  • Our experts detail their favorite picks for Falcons-49ers, including thoughts on how to play the spread.

Falcons at 49ers Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions

  • Odds: 49ers -11
  • Over/Under: 47.5
  • Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

Odds as of Thursday evening and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.

Public bettors are almost evenly split, with 54% backing the Atlanta Falcons to cover and 46% supporting the San Francisco 49ers.

Our experts are also split.

Find their case for both sides of this spread below, complete with analysis of key matchups.

Falcons-49ers Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Falcons

Devonta Freeman (knee) and Julio Jones (shoulder) both sat out of practice on Wednesday, but their return on Thursday suggest they’re trending toward playing.

The 49ers, meanwhile, are in rough shape. They placed defensive lineman David Jones (ankle) on injured reserve on Thursday and Richard Sherman (hamstring) is expected to be out at least a couple of weeks. Additionally, safety Jaquiski Tartt (ribs), defensive lineman Julian Taylor (knee), Dee Ford (quad/hamstring) and cornerback K’Waun Williams (concussion) have all been absent from practice this week. They may be longshots to suit up if they don’t return to practice on Friday. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Falcons Pass Defense

The 49ers feature one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the league. After dominating teams on the ground over the first half of the season, they’ve recently displayed a high passing efficiency.

Garoppolo has thrown for 16 touchdowns and only four interceptions over his past six games, tallying three overall QB4 or better performances over that span. Now he faces a Falcons defense that ranks 26th in Football Outsiders’ passing defense DVOA and will be without top cornerback Desmond Trufant for the rest of the season.

Atlanta will certainly struggle to limit San Francisco’s robust rushing attack, but the Falcons are at risk of getting blowout with a pass defense that’s allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. With the recent breakout performances by wide receivers Deebo Samuel, Emmanuel Sanders and All-Pro tight end George Kittle, the Falcons will have their hands full with a suddenly-dangerous San Francisco passing attack. Mike Randle

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: 49ers -10.5
  • Projected Total: 46

I’m in line with this market, so this is another a pass. Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

Randle: 49ers -10.5

While we’ve discussed the danger of picking against the 9- to 10-point underdogs in the NFL, the Falcons are simply too injured on both sides of the ball to keep this matchup close. The season-ending loss of Trufant coincides with the Falcons also losing wide receiver Calvin Ridley and nagging injuries to Julio Jones and Austin Hooper to severely limit the Falcons efficiency.

Matt Ryan-Calvin Ridley-Julio Jones
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones

San Francisco’s second-best offense by DVOA is now comprised of a top-two pass offensive attack, with Garoppolo playing his best football at the end of the season. I expect a huge bounceback by the 49ers defense against a Falcons offensive line that’s allowed 16 sacks over the past three games.

I’ll buck the trend of 9- to 10-point underdogs covering, and go with a healthier and more accomplished San Francisco team at home.

Randle is 237-231-4 (50.6%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

Chris Raybon: Falcons +10.5

I agree with Mike’s points on the 49ers — I was, after all, a year early on pegging them a surprise Super Bowl contenders — but I differ in how to approach this line.

If you like the 49ers, I think you have to wait for the key number of 10 — though, as Mike also alludes to, favorites struggle to cover 9- to 10-point spreads, posting a disastrous .176 mark against the spread since 2015.

At 10.5 or more, I think it has to be Falcons or nothing.

Yes, losing Ridley hurts, but Hooper was targeted at a higher rate than Ridley when both were in the lineup together and should be closer to full strength after logging 47 snaps in his return last week, while wide receiver is a position of depth for Atlanta, with Russell Gage, Christian Blake and Olamide Zaccheaus all posting big games over the past few weeks.

And Trufant allowed a 106.2 passer rating and five touchdown in nine games, according to Pro Football Focus, so he wasn’t exactly moving the needle for this defense. In fact, the 49ers arguably are in worse shape injury-wise after losing Sherman, Ford and starting center Weston Richburg (torn patellar tendon).

The Falcons were never as bad as their 1-7 start may have suggested, and since the bye, they’re 3-2 with an average point differential of +8.4, which includes a 26-9 win over Drew Brees and the Saints in the Superdome (without Trufant).

Meanwhile, since thumping Carolina 51-13 in Week 7, the 49ers’ average point differential is +6.3 over a six-game span that includes four one-possession games and only one victory by more than 10 points.

Atlanta catches San Francisco in a prime letdown spot after last week’s emotional win as an underdog in New Orleans. Last week’s performance shouldn’t have come as a surprise, but neither should a potential letdown this week: According to our Bet Labs data, the 49ers are 18-13 (58.1%) against the spread as an underdog under Kyle Shanahan, but they’re just 4-9 (30.8%) ATS as a favorite, and 1-7 (12.5%) ATS as a favorite after covering in the previous game.

Raybon is 180-134-10 (57.3%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

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