Falcons vs. Colts Betting Odds & Picks: Back Indy As a Small Home Favorite?

Falcons vs. Colts Betting Odds & Picks: Back Indy As a Small Home Favorite? article feature image
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Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Indianapolis Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett

Falcons at Colts Betting Odds

  • Odds: Colts -1.5
  • Total: 47
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Odds above as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).

Should the Colts be bigger home favorites this week?

Our analysts break down the most important angles of this game, complete with Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a pick.

Falcons-Colts Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Falcons

The Falcons could be without OL Kaleb McGary, but the bigger story is on the Colts side with Marlon Mack (calf) missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday and was seen carrying a walking boot on Wednesday.

His practice status on Friday will give us a clearer idea of where he’s headed. It’s not likely he plays against the Falcons if he misses another one. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Colts -2
  • Projected Total: 47

While the Colts might not be Super Bowl contenders without Andrew Luck, they’re still equipped to be competitive in close games.

They came away with a two-point road victory over the Titans last week following a hard-fought road loss to the Chargers in overtime. Now the Colts get back-to-back home games against the Falcons and Raiders.

The Colts should be able to establish the run behind their solid offensive line and lean on their defense to keep them in games, so Jacoby Brissett should only need to manage both games to win them.

The market is trying to push this week’s game to a pick ’em, so if that happens, we can come in on the Colts as they should be favored by a couple points here. Sean Koerner

Biggest Mismatch

Falcons’ Secondary vs. Colts’ Passing Attack

The Falcons defense is predicated on speed and was vulnerable against power rushing attacks last season. It seemed like that could be the case again in Week 1, when the Vikings — who beat Atlanta 38-12 despite only 10 pass attempts from Kirk Cousins — ran the ball 38 times for 172 yards. But the Falcons actually held their own up the middle.

Grady Jarrett is a monster up front, and the addition of Tyeler Davison (via the Saints) has really beefed up the Falcons’ interior. Dalvin Cook got most of his yards off the edge in the Vikings’ zone scheme.

The Falcons will face a very similar road test against one of the NFL’s heaviest run teams, led by a mean and dominant run-blocking offensive line, especially up the middle. Through two games, the Colts rank second with 185 rushing yards per game.

But as I said before, the Falcons’ run defense up the gut will be stout and I’m not as worried about defending the edge with as much speed and athleticism they have on defense.

As a result, the biggest mismatch is the Colts’ passing attack vs. the Falcons’ secondary. As a result of Luck’s retirement and the injury to Devin Funchess, the Colts are just not that dangerous through the air.

You have to remember that Atlanta’s defense dealt with an enormous amount of injury misfortune. It finished eighth at 6.2 yards per attempt in 2017. This season’s healthy unit? Seventh at 5.8. Meanwhile, the Colts offense ranks 29th at 5.3 yards per pass attempt and dead last at 147 yards per game.

TY Hilton-Desmond Trufant
Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: T.Y. Hilton, Desmond Trufant

The Colts’ aerial attack is now basically T.Y. Hilton, who can be matched by Desmond Trufant. And Chester Rogers and Zach Pascal shouldn’t scare the Falcons, who have a promising second-year corner in Isaiah Oliver.

I think this defense is being slept on. But remember that the Falcons lost Ricardo Allen, Keanu Allen and Deion Jones — all of whom are back this season with an improved interior defensive line. I don’t expect the Colts to do anything through the air, and the Falcons will do more against the run that many might assume.

With Mack also banged up and two of their best defenders also potentially out (star LB Darius Leonard and starting CB Pierre Desir), this is Falcons or nothing for me. If all three are out, I’ll likely grab them as a short dog or favorite. Stuckey

Expert Pick

Chad Millman: Colts -1.5

I’m gonna disagree with Stuckey here.

Week 1, the Colts lose in OT, thanks to Adam Vinatieri leaving many many points on the field. Week 2, the Colts survive the Titans, in spite of Adam Vinatieri leaving many many points on the field.

In both cases, the Colts were underdogs, and neither made sense to me. This one doesn’t, either.

Their offensive line is among the best in the NFL, and that seems to be forgotten by fans who are betting the Falcons at a 62% clip as of writing (see live public betting data here). Maybe there’s some residual, high-flying perception from the Falcons beating the Eagles on Sunday Night Football, but look beyond that score: I saw a Falcons team lose a lead, only to win because one of the best players in the league made a miracle mad dash for the end zone off a screen pass.

The Colts are strong where it matters — on the offensive front and  in the running game — two areas where the Falcons don’t have enough answers to be getting so much respect, especially on the road.

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