Why the Patriots Are Making Betting History vs. Giants on Thursday Night Football

Oct 10, 2019 09:58 PM EDT
Credit:

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New England Patriots fans cheer

  • As 16.5-point favorites, the Patriots are making betting history this week with a monumental Thursday night spread.
  • See where that spread ranks in our database, as well as how large favorites tend to perform against the number.

The 2019 New England Patriots are good. Really good. With Week 5 in the books, the Pats are the favorites (3-1) to win Super Bowl 54 at PointsBet.

On the other hand, the Daniel Jones Show came crashing back down to earth with the Giants managing just 10 points against the Vikings on Sunday.

That alone is enough to expect New England to be a big favorite over New York on Thursday Night Football.


Odds as of Tuesday at 11:45 a.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).


Throw in the fact that the offensively-challenged Giants will also be without Sterling Shepard and Wayne Gallman, and Saquon Barkley (doubtful) and Evan Engram (questionable) are also suffering from injuries.

The Patriots are currently -16.5 in this matchup, making them the biggest favorites ever tracked by our Bet Labs software for a Thursday NFL game — that includes Thanksgiving games as well dating back to 2003.

The current record belongs to the Seattle Seahawks, who closed as 15-point favorites against the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday, Dec. 15, 2016. Seattle ultimately won 24-3, covering the spread.

The Giants vs. Patriots spread isn’t just noteworthy for a Thursday Night Game, but is also just one of 27 NFL matchups with a favorite of at least 16.5 points since 2005.

Per Bet Labs, favorites of this size haven’t been great bets, going 11-15-1 (42.3%) against the spread (ATS) over that span, though that’s still not a large enough sample to provide actionable betting conclusions.

At the time of writing bettors have not been deterred by the large number, as 71% of tickets and 76% of dollars wagered on the spread have landed on the Patriots.

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